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TX-Sen: New Poll Cornyn 50 - Noriega 43, Closest Since May

by: Karl-Thomas Musselman

Wed Oct 01, 2008 at 04:34 PM CDT

Finally. After nearly a month and a half, we have a new poll from Rasmussen in the Texas Senate race.

Remember, a lot has changed since mid-August. Texas has seen Hurricane Ike, 2 weeks of Cornyn on TV, and a financial meltdown that will affect even the rather resilient Texas economy. All that, and the Senate race is the closest it has been since May, with Cornyn 50%, and Noriega up to 43%. See the chart below.

Texas Senate Poll Chart


If you look at the margins between Cornyn and Noriega, here is how they have tracked since Rasmusen began tracking the race.

 Date John Cornyn (R) Rick Noriega (D)
 May 1
 47% 43%
 8% -4
 June 2
 52% 35% 7% -17
 June 25
 48% 35% 9% -13
 July 30  47% 37% 8% -10
 August 21
 48% 37% 9% -11
 September 29
 50% 43% 7% -7

The undecided pool isn't that high and hasn't really changed. And the ebb and flow of the Democratic vote compared to the Presidential race seems to be tracking in a similar manner with the summer vote being lower than the spring and fall. For the first time in Rasmussen's polling since May, Noriega is out performing Obama's margin. 

 John McCain (R)
Barack Obama (D)

 May 1

 48% 43% -5
 June 2
 52% 39% -13
 June 25
 48% 39% -9
 July 30
 50% 41% -9
 August 21
 50% 41% -9
 September 29
 52% 43% -9

This is welcome news for a Senate campaign that has essentially become a sleeper race in the national picture for the last few months. Looks like it's time to wake up to a single digit race again. 

The end of quarter deadline may have been yesterday, but now you've got a new reason to kick in a few $$$ to Rick Noriega. Oh, and be sure to watch his new web ad.

Update:  Ok, how could we resist. I think we're going to start seeing this graphic again and again.

Noriega in your polls 


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Wow - great news (0.00 / 0)
Let's keep this moving to Rick's favor.

Color of the lines (0.00 / 0)
Sorry that I may Cornyn Blue and Noriega Red. But hey, worst that will happen is we're just predicting the future.

Don't cross those color lines (0.00 / 0)
All the color blue are belong to us!

[ Parent ]
Love (0.00 / 0)
to see "blue" on top. Oh, and the summary of the Rasmussen poll just happens to mention:

The survey was conducted in partnership with Fox Television Stations, Inc.

A "partnership with Fox" is worth at least 7 more points for Rick Noriega. And the more they show that black and white ad of Cornyn all alone in the desert...he looks really comfortable there. It would make a really nice Cialis commercial, too. He just needs a bathtub and a date.

Cornyn voted "yes" tonight on the economic bill. I wonder if he just finished off his short and wholly unremarkable Senate career. Some of these commenters seem to think so.  

[ Parent ]
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