John Cornyn has turned his back on Texans for six years, and now Texans are returning the favor. If these polls tell us anything, it's that John Cornyn should be very nervous because Texans are ready for new leadership.
The fact that Cornyn can only managed to get about four in five GOP members to back him in his reelection bid -- about the same level of support from within his own party that Noriega receives despite the fact that the latter hasn't been on the scene for nearly as long -- speaks to the incumbent's problems.
Noriega still has a big hill to climb come November, but the Research 2000 poll shows at least the possibility that Democrats could seriously expand the playing field this year.
Some believe this is evidence of a political realignment, with more voters self-identifying as independents and slippage of the GOP steel-grip on statewide offices.
Josh Marshall at Talking Points Memo is reporting that LULAC has filed suit against the TDP over the primacaucus delegate selection procedure.
The link at Marshall's site goes directly to the El Paso Times story about the suit. No details.
Anyone know anything more?
Update from Phillip
Considering how focused the TDP has been on changing the rules going forward -- and eager and willing to address these changes at the upcoming convention -- it's a shame LULAC is doing this. We could have been all coming together right now, and instead, we get a lawsuit. And based on the article below the fold, the lawsuit is just a heavy hammer being thrown around to make sure LULAC gets their chips at the bargaining table counted.
I've said this before, and I'll say it again: as an Hispanic, I sure felt like my vote was counted.
(Register voters and help take back the House. - promoted by Phillip Martin)
This Saturday, take part in something that can help every single Texas Democrat on the ballot in November. Join the Obama campaign's 50-State Voter Registration Drive. The more folks we can register now who are eager to vote for a Democrat, the more we can concentrate on turning them out in November.
Right now, Barack Obama only trails John McCain by five points here in Texas, and Rick Noriega only needs to make up about as much ground on John Cornyn. One great way to help those candidates--as well as folks like Diane Maldonado, Wendy Davis, Larry Joe Doherty, and Nick Lampson--is to make more voters who can cast their ballots for our candidates.
Here in Texas we've got four events planned: Austin, Dallas, Houston and San Antonio will all be taking part. Please RSVP for your event so the organizers can make sure to have enough forms and clipboards for all of you!
We've written about the "ghost workers" story twice now, and you can read the two links above to get all the details/dirt. Fundamentally, though -- now that the week is ending and Craddick's ridiculous smearing of Democrats has bitten back against him hard -- we ask the bigger question:
Craddick's outrage on the "ghost worker" standard is fundamentally that he thinks House Members are cheating taxpayers by having the public pay for health benefits for the "part-time" workers. So, the questions:
Texas has a higher uninsurance rate than any other country - what's wrong with providing health benefits?
Why don't part-time workers deserve health benefits?
We, as Democrats, believe that we should do everything in our power to provide affordable access to health coverage to as many Texans as possible. Craddick and the Republican leadership don't -- and a look at some of the latest headlines demonstrates this point precisely:
[There were] 5.7 million people in Texas who did not have health insurance in 2006. Many Texans may know that their state has the nation's highest portion of residents without insurance, 25 percent, a figure that has remained constant for several years. [...]
Most are employed. Two-thirds of uninsured Texas adults younger than 65 have jobs, according to the U.S. Census Bureau.
Texas families saw their health insurance premiums soar 40 percent in five years; 10 times faster than their incomes increased, according to a report being released today by a national foundation that promotes health care improvement.[...]
At the same time, Texas ranked No. 1 in the percentage of residents without insurance. In 2005-06, that figure was 27 percent. The state had 5.5 million of the nation's 47 million uninsured people.
Families USA estimates that more than seven working-age Texans die each day due to lack of health insurance (approximately 2,700 people in 2006).
Between 2000 and 2006, the estimated number of adults between the ages of 25 and 64 in Texas who died because they did not have health insurance was nearly 17,700.
I was wrong earlier in the week when I said Craddick had political motives in trying to go after these "ghost workers." He doesn't care if he outs Democrat or Republican staffers. Speaker Craddick and the failed Republican leaders in this state are so fundamentally opposed to providing health care to Texas --- a philosophy that has led to the disastrous health coverage for Texans that is outlined in the stories above --- that they'll do anything to save a few bucks.
That's why Craddick must go: not because of his bullying, petulant politics, but because of the disastrous political philosophy he drives through the Legislature and forces onto Texas families.
The Statesman's Postcards from the Lege blog is reporting that state Sen. Florence Shapiro (R-Plano) is considering running for the U.S. Senate if Kay Bailey Hutchison returns to Texas to run for Governor.
Bryan Eppstein, a consultant to Shapiro, says, “At this time it’s just an interest in running and it’s a growing interest.” Eppstein also threw in the obligatory “she’s getting encouraged to run” bit.
Here’s how the scenario might play out: Hutchison leaves the Senate in 2009 to run for governor. Gov. Rick Perry then appoints someone to fill her seat, but there is an election in 2010 (some say it might be sooner than that) in which the voters would decide who the next senator is. Shapiro, assuming she’s not the person appointed by Perry (or even if she is) would jump into that race.
Texas Weekly reporteded Thursday that she’s planning to form an exploratory committee. Eppstein wouldn’t directly answer whether she has such plans.
Shapiro’s move could materialize about a year after she told the American-Statesman’s Gardner Selby that she’d welcome a chance to be in the U.S. Senate.
“It is a position obviously that anybody that’s an elected official would covet,” she said in April 2007. “It’s not something I’ve even been planning at all to date … I haven’t really thought about it very much.”
One of the commenters from the Statesman blog, Dan Cain, may have said it best:
The more comically tragic instance here is that a state senator from Plano, Texas has herself convinced she would be a viable candidate. I presume she is from the Rick Perry school of hobnailed boot politics.
Any Democratic names come to mind for this potential race?
I'm a numbers nerd so pardon me for getting all excited about presenting you with some numbers on the early vote for the Austin City Council races.
Keep in mind the following caveats
A) this doesn't include the Austin voters in Williamson county,
B) it undercounts African Americans because they are more difficult to code in the voter file,
C) it doesn't count new voters registered since April 1st (which are few in this election anyways), and
D) were comparing 2008 Early vote to the 2006 Total vote.
Also, the 2006 City of Austin (COA) was when Will Wynn, Mike Martinez, Sheryl Cole, and Brewster McCracken were elected.
2008 Early Vote 2006 Total Voters
Total COA 14949 52073
65+ 4560 30.5% 11837 22.7%
<25 404 2.7% 1475 2.8%
Dem History 10290 68.8% 22600 43.4%
Rep History 2235 15.0% 11810 22.7%
Mixed/None 2424 16.2% 17663 33.9%
3/3 City 5994 40.1% 11138 21.4%
2/3 City 3261 21.8% 14893 28.6%
1/3 City 2396 16.0% 13510 25.9%
Older City 705 4.7% 2901 5.6%
No City 2593 17.3% 9631 18.5%
Male 6831 49.1% 24379 50.4%
Female 7093 50.9% 24037 49.6%
White 13460 90.0% 46774 89.8%
Black 348 2.3% 1444 2.8%
Hispanic 863 5.8% 3038 5.8%
Asian 278 1.9% 817 1.6%
HD 46 (Dukes) 1324 8.9% 5040 9.7%
HD 47 (Bolton) 2945 19.7% 10137 19.5%
HD 48 (Howard) 3401 22.8% 11745 22.6%
HD 49 (Naisht.) 4063 27.2% 13733 26.4%
HD 50 (Strama) 1977 13.2% 7761 14.9%
HD 51 (Rodrig.) 1239 8.3% 3657 7.0%
It's my guess that the percentages in the "previously voted in a city election" categories will even out Saturday as the 3/3C's are the people more likely to vote early. The demographic data is spot on (which says alot about how little minority turnout is driven in the election where the "black and brown" seats are chosen).
Older voter may have a slight tendency to vote early, but I'm guessing they will be a larger chunk this year. The vote seems more Democratic as well though if partisan history is tied to city election voting frequency, we could see that drop as well on Saturday. But it's quite a bit higher so that may benefit Cravey/Morrison in Place 4.
Days after Rasmussen showed Rick Noriega within 4 points (with a margin of error of 4), Democrats are jubilant, though some still wonder whether the Democrats can actually be this close to taking Texas. Well, Research 2000 has released a poll commissioned by Daily Kos, and similar news was released. For the second time in a week, Rick Noriega is shown only four points behind Senator John Cornyn, and the incumbent is again under the 50% line.
Research 2000 for Daily Kos. 5/5-7. Likely voters. MoE 4% (9/24-26/07 results)
Cornyn (R) 48 (51) Noriega (D) 44 (35)
That is nothing short of astounding. And lest anyone worry that it's an outlier, these numbers confirm a Rasmussen poll from earlier this week:
Rasmussen. 5/1. Likely voters. MoE 4% (No trend lines)
Cornyn (R) 47 Noriega (D) 43
Someone also pointed out in the Daily Kos comments that the poll was of "likely voters who vote regularly in state elections." That makes this all the more encouraging, because we all know that this is a year we can bring in new voters throughout the country. These results are astounding; clearly we can win this thing!
Kos' numbers on the Presidential race weren't as encouraging as Rasmussen's, but I think one step at a time can still mark victory. Below the fold I have the cross-tabs that Kos released. Feel free to look at them. Hopefully, the Netroots won't be the only ones pouring hundreds of thousands of dollars into a campaign to take back Texas.
(I'm a policy geek, so I love things like working on the platform the way some of you may love polls, direct mail pieces, and Robin Cravey's hats. Add your input in the comments. - promoted by Phillip Martin)
Eighty percent of success is showing up. - Woody Allen
Living in the State capitol I was able to mosey on by a meeting of Legislators and party activists charged with revising the 2006 Texas Democratic Party Platform. Among those present were a former State Speaker of the House and other former Committee Chairmen.
Since my special interest is reform of campaigns and elections I raised my hand to be on a committee of 5 to revise the section of the platform focused on "Protecting Democracy" The text of that section is below.
I invite your comments with the rare assurance that they will be heard by people who can actually do something about it. However what ends up in the final draft will be decided by consensus and a vote of Party Delegates.
Tom Craddick's miscalculated political attacks are already having a negative impact on his party. As Phil reported yesterday, Tom Craddick has decided to go to war against Capitol staffers.
As Quorum Report and Phil quickly note the first three targets were three highly public critics of Speaker Tom Craddick.
Both House Democratic Caucus chair Jim Dunnam (D-Waco) and Craig Eiland (D-Galveston) have even been mentioned as possible speaker candidates should the House flip into Democratic control next November. Byron Cook's (R-Corsicana) personal privilege speech last session was remarkably forthright in referring to Speaker Craddick as corrupt.
As Quorum Report also notes, Craddick continues to bully "colleagues" by "ignoring the more traditional House practice of notifying members about possible improprieties and offering the members an opportunity to cure any problems. Instead, these "issues" that Phillips knew about in April went public in a May news story along with referrals to the Travis County District Attorney's office."
In any event, after the Statesman broke the story, House Administration Chair Tony Goolsby (R-Dallas) notified Dunnam, Eiland and Cook and gave them ten days to explain treating apparent part time employees as full time. We have posted Eiland's letter with a summary in a separate story.
After the Statesman broke the hit piece news story, House Administration Chair, Republican Tony Goolsby, told Dunnam, Eiland, and Cook they have 10 days to explain why employees were being listed as full time. In another moment of Republican hypocrisy, Goolsby as chair, told members to do as he says, not as he does.
Again, as Quorum Report states:
lobbyist Jennifer Shelley Rodriguez appears as a full time employee on Goolsby's Monthly Financial Statement from January to March of 2004. In January and February, her full time status earned her $500 a month. In March, she pulled down only $326.09. Rodriguez, the daughter of former Senator and current lobbyist Dan Shelley appears to have been a registered lobbyist in 2004 with at least 14 clients.
Again, according to the Monthly Financial Statement received by each House member, another full time employee making $500/month was Jennifer Fein. She held this status from September 2005 to January 2006.
In 2003, before SB1370 was passed, Goolsby had Eric Goldberg as a full time $500 month employee from January 20, 2003 to May 10 of the same year.
And finally, Ernest Stromberger, former executive director of Independent Insurance Agents of America shows up for 20 hours a week from December 2, 2002 to January 8, 2003.
We identified these issues and requested comment from Goolsby but had received none as of press time.
Republican Speaker Tom Craddick seems to be so singularly focused on keeping his job that he doesn't care who he takes down with him. As the Lone Star Project points out:
Few Republican's played a more prominent role in protecting controversial State House Speaker Tom Craddick than Goolsby. In addition to supporting Craddick for speaker, Goolsby was put in charge of "bringing in the muscle." After Craddick declared his "absolute" authority to rule the Texas State House, Goolsby brought in, "uniformed Department of Public Safety officers [who] guarded entrances at the front and rear of the chamber." It was an "unusual show of force," (Fort Worth Star-Telegram, May 27, 2007) and clearly intended to intimidate members of the legislature.
Now, rather than defending his partner in power, Goolsby is left defending himself from Craddick's politically motivated attacks. Speaker Craddick needs to take a nice long look in the mirror and ask himself if throwing his ever shrinking base of support under a bus is the best way to maintain control over the House. It seems unlikely.
Following up on the outstanding 4 point margin shown in the Rasmussen Poll earlier this week, here is yet more online buzz about the changing tide in the Texas Senate race.
...I think that some realignment is taking place, both in Texas and nationally... Texas is not immune from national trends, and the wind is definitely blowing in the Democrats' direction... If Democrats can continue to be motivated into the fall, yes, I can see Noriega being very competitive in this race.
Texas Democrats are basking in the latest state polls from Rasmussen that suggest Sen. John Cornyn is vulnerable and Democrats could be competitive statewide this fall.
This Saturday, take part in something that can help every single Texas Democrat on the ballot in November. Join the Obama campaign's 
