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BOR/IVR Texas Presidential Primary Poll Results (August)

by: Matt Glazer

Thu Sep 06, 2007 at 09:00 AM CDT

NOTE: If you are looking for the most recent Clinton vs. Obama Texas Primary Poll, please go to this post.

Below is the latest installment of the Texas Primary Tracking Polls conducted by IVR Polls commissioned on behalf of Burnt Orange Report. IVR Polls correctly predicted the TX-10 race within a margin of 1 point in 2006.

This month we have two polls for your reading pleasure!  We are profiling both the Presidential and U.S. Senate primary races here in Texas. The Senate results are further down if you want to jump to them.

Full Results w/ Crosstabs for Both Polls Here

Texas Presidential Primary Results

After holding steady in the low 40's, Clinton has dipped off this month going from 41.5% in July to 36.7% in August.  Clinton seems to have lost some Latino support and it has hurt her top line.  We have said for months now that Clinton likely has a ceiling of support in the low 40's, this month's poll seems to prove that point.

Obama's numbers have also fallen do to a loss of Latino support.  After climbing as high as 20% last month, Obama is down 17.6%.  This is a change within the margin, but this could have been the month to further close the gap on Clinton and that didn't happen.  Obama still hasn't made the gain in the African American community in Texas.  Obama registered 32% of the African American support were Clinton still has 31%. 

After a steady drop for Edwards and a sudden drop for Richardson, both men have climbed back up. Edwards is back up to 14.6% and Richardson has hit his highest level of support since we started this poll in March with 8.9%.

Kucinich and Biden have also had surprising bumps with 3.2% and 4.2% respectively. Undecided have also dropped nearly 3% to 13.7%.

Texas Senate Race Results

The Senate race has a clear winner-undecided. Note that this poll was conducted before word came that Emil Reichstadt was pulling out of the Senate race.

IVR Polls breaks down their data by region with some interesting facts.

In the Senate race, more than half are undecided, but Noriega takes 58% of those with an opinion to Watts' 30% and Reichstadt's 12%. Noriega was the huge favorite in the Houston area codes, while Watts was the huge favorite in the Corpus Christi area code. Noriega leads slightly in Watts' new home of San Antonio, but almost 70% were undecided. Noriega was also a solid favorite in the 956 area code, which stretches from Brownsville to Laredo and has the heaviest turnout for Democratic primaries. DFW had no clear favorites and was more 'undecided' than most areas.

Undecided sits at 52%, with Noriega at 27%,  and Watts at 14% as noted in the chart above.  


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Richardson (0.00 / 0)
It's amazing to me that Governor Richardson is doing so poorly in a heavily hispanic state like Texas.

His record is great, and credentials super....why are dems not taking a look?

Conservative Yet Pragmatic

I like him (0.00 / 0)
but except for the adds, his campaign has been kind of clumsy.  He's had several gaffs and his debate performances haven't been great, at least at the first two (the only debates I've watched.)

But he is a good candidate, and still my first choice.  Just less so than a few months ago.

"I love America more than any other country in this world, and, exactly for this reason, I insist on the right to criticize her perpetually."- James A. Baldwin

[ Parent ]
What these polls tell us... (0.00 / 0)
They only tell us that initial name recognition is relatively high for Clinton and lower for Obama/Edwards (even less for Richardson).  If Richardson had a hispanic name, he probably would poll higher. 

The two useful questions would be one that got at the heart of Hillary's likeability and/or how many people just have a negative reaction when faced with her.  The other question would be would you rather see Hillary Clinton win the nomination or somebody else.

No horse race question in a poll, this far out, means anything at all.  Honestly, as far as Texas goes, we won't have a clue what does matter until a poll that goes in the field Feb 8th.  That poll will show how the super duper uber Tuesday results AND THE MEDIA COVERAGE OF THEM has changed people's perceptions.  Of course, such a poll is only useful if the nomination isn't already locked.

Maybe... (3.00 / 1)
I agree that if we come out of Feb. 5th and it's clearly down to 2 candidates, it changes the nature of the poll. But it's interesting to see where candidates are...especially that Clinton has hit her ceiling at 40%. From my experience, I've seen a lot more people willing to float between Edwards/Obama/Richardson, etc., than willing to float to/from Clinton. To phrase it differently: Clinton doesn't seem like as much of a bandwagon candidate as the others.

Now, a very great man once said that some people rob you with a fountain pen.

[ Parent ]
Qualified agreement... (0.00 / 0)
I think, for the moment, everybody knows Hillary and 40% of primary voting Democrats in Texas support her.  I think those who support other candidates are quite unlikely to support Hillary.

HOWEVER, I think once the other candidates become more well known, one or more could emerge and take some of Hillary's support.  Due to money, endorcements, and racial politics, I'd guess at this point it would be Obama.  However, Edwards could possibly be that person, especially if he performs well early and gets some good news cycles.

FURTHERMORE, if there are a number of gaffes with other campaigns, I think Hillary could emerge as the "safe" candidate that people might bandwagon onto.  I don't feel this is likely, but if anybody screams after Iowa, it could happen.

Basically, what I'm saying is, this poll in no way tests for intensity.  If I had to guess, I'd guess Edwards supporters are the most intense, with Obama and Hillary both more fluid. 

Has anyone seen any internal campaign polls for TX?  Are any of the candidates even polling in TX or are they ignoring it until mid Feb?  My first instinct is they'll wait until Feb 8th (when the dust settles on the news coverage of uber Tuesday) to see what on earth people here are thinking.  However, with THAT much money, who knows if they're contemplating establishing a minimal field effort now (and it would have to start before Feb 5 to be effective) as insurance in case the nomination isn't locked.  As far as field goes, on one hand in a state this large it would be INCREDIBLY difficult.  To the contrary, with a state with such historically low Democratic primary turnout, field could be amazingly effective. 

[ Parent ]
Intensity (0.00 / 0)
If you check the crosstabs, after the candidate choice question, the poll asks whether the respondent will definitely vote for their choice or whether they are still considering other candidates. Clinton has the highest 'definites' while Edwards and Richardson have the lowest. There is the possibility that this just means the anti-Clinton voters are ready to jump to whoever has the best chance of knocking her off. Then again, she led the pack when I asked about second choice in an earlier poll.

Texas Economics

[ Parent ]
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