State Plan Would Strip Travis from Doggett's District

candidate residency requirement (3.00 / 1)

The writer of the post queried: How does this effects Dogett's (and, perhaps, Bonilla's?) eligibility for their districts, if the boundaries are changed and they don't include the current representative's home?

Answer:  No effect at all.  US Reps, unlike state reps, do not have to live in the district in which they run.  The only reqirement is that they be an "inhabitant" of the state as the time of the election.

by: brucepr @ Fri Jul 14, 2006 at 15:08:31 PM CDT

CD 25 Left Open (0.00 / 0)

This map leaves CD-25 open, for now. Just thought that would be worth mentioning.

Tomorrow, I'll hope to have a round-up of what all the proposed redistricting maps would do...

Now, a very great man once said that some people rob you with a fountain pen.

by: Phillip Martin @ Fri Jul 14, 2006 at 15:15:08 PM CDT

so we show up at every Rethug event (5.00 / 1)

with signs? And we need to get the word out on Carole's role in this -- I think too many Democrats have forgotten (or never knew) her role in this mess.

We have done the impossible and that makes us mighty - Firefly

by: BeckyH @ Fri Jul 14, 2006 at 15:22:59 PM CDT

As of Right Now (0.00 / 0)

I like LULAC's plan B.  It puts Webb County, i.e., Cuellar back in Bonilla's district.

by: SADem @ Fri Jul 14, 2006 at 15:48:39 PM CDT

I actually like the Lone Star Project map best (2.00 / 1)

But LULAC plan B is pretty good too.

Gawd, we're dorks.

thejeffersonian.blogspot.com

by: Cincinnatus @ Fri Jul 14, 2006 at 16:02:39 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Now that I've seen both (2.00 / 1)

I probably like the Democrats' plan the best followed by LULAC's plan B.  As long as Bonilla and Cuellar are together and north Bexar County can be rid of him.

by: SADem @ Sat Jul 15, 2006 at 04:19:22 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

Picking off the Rs / Reform (0.00 / 0)

Picking them off one by one - You really think so? I'm not so sure. Those districts are drawn to elect Republicans.

Protesting every R campaign event? I doubt that will happen, either. First, you've got to convince people to care. Second, you've got to know about the events before hand.

In any case, If this plan gets passed, and it isn't seen as an argument for redistricting reform, we'll never see one.

I don't know that we'll get redistricting reform without Initiative and Referendum (I&R.)

In any case, it's an uphill battle, the things we need to do to restore democracy. I suspect it'll get worse before it gets any better.

by: jelyon @ Fri Jul 14, 2006 at 15:59:30 PM CDT

One, Grover Norquist Is An Idiot (2.00 / 1)

But we already know that.

The quote we should be looking for is Tom Delay's one where he states that should redistricting now get rid of Martin Frost, Chet Edwards, and Lloyd Doggett it will have all been a failure.

That fits more inline with what this map does to Doggett.

Well that and their continuation of just trying to make any and every elected Dem in Texas a Latino or African-American.

thejeffersonian.blogspot.com

by: Cincinnatus @ Fri Jul 14, 2006 at 16:05:26 PM CDT

Explains why republican money (0.00 / 0)

is backing a Democratic challenger to very moderate Toby Goodman. He votes with Democrats more often than any Republican member of the Texas House.

Faith Chatham

by: faithm @ Sat Aug 12, 2006 at 13:06:25 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Only Three (0.00 / 0)

"This is trying to split the most Democratic urban county in Texas among three Republicans," Martin said. "It is essentially to deny a voice for the Travis County majority."

Good luck using that argument.  Tarrant County is currently split into four districts, and Dallas has parts of six. 

I like LULAC Plan B myself.  It keeps Doggett and puts Ciro in the 28.  It also give Raymond a chance at Bonilla in 23.

by: blank @ Fri Jul 14, 2006 at 16:09:35 PM CDT

Yes, but... (0.00 / 0)

Dallas and Tarrant aren't as Democratic as  Travis...which was the point.

Them trying to have 3 R's represent Travis is as silly as having 19 D's represent Texas...

Now, a very great man once said that some people rob you with a fountain pen.

by: Phillip Martin @ Fri Jul 14, 2006 at 16:12:55 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Yes, but ... (2.00 / 1)

Yes, I know the majority in Travis are Democrats and they would be screwed.  But, DFW, which in 2000 had more than 5 million residents and the population equivalent of 10 CDs, is currently represented by 1 Democrat.  Minorities in Oak Cliff and Fort Worth are very diluted.  I'm sure we both agree that this map would screw Travis, but the current one screws DFW Democrats.  I'm just still bitter that DFW wasn't declared unconstitutional.

by: blank @ Fri Jul 14, 2006 at 17:48:21 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Me too... (3.00 / 1)

I don't know why the huge displacement of African-American voters in the DFW wasn't ruled unconstitutional...

Now, a very great man once said that some people rob you with a fountain pen.

by: Phillip Martin @ Fri Jul 14, 2006 at 19:46:22 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Latinos Too (5.00 / 1)

It wasn't just African Americans.  Instead of restating my comment on DKos, I'll just restate it here:

"So let me get SCOTUS's arguement straight.

The 26 (oops this should have been 23), which was held by Bonillia (R) but unsafe, was made safer, and that's unconstitutional.

But, the 24, which was held by Martin Frost (D) and included blacks from south Fort Worth and Latinos from Oak Cliff, was broken into the 32, the new 24, the 6, and the 26, is constitutional?  Those blacks in south Fort Worth are lumped in a district with white suburban Denton (TX-26), and those Latinos in Oak Cliff are tied to upperclass white Northwest Dallas (TX-32).  That is also ignores the Latinos in Northwest Fort Worth who are stuck with Kay Granger (R-TX-12). 

How can the former be a blatant dilution of the minority vote but latter not be so? 

There is no way any honest person can look at the minority voting population in DFW and think we only deserve one authentically minority district. 

We were screwed!"

Since I bought a house in Arlington to move from Session's district to Martin Frost's district, only to be redistricted in Barton's district the following year, I don't think I'll ever really get over it.

by: blank @ Fri Jul 14, 2006 at 21:57:28 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

A Well Done Map (0.00 / 0)

I have to say though, this GOP map most clearly answers the call of the Supreme Court while affecting the least number of districts while also creating not one, but two seats that are potentially competitive for Democrats. I honestly don't think it's that bad outside of losing Doggett to elsewhere in the state (if he stayed in 25).

I mean, it's more smartly drawn than the map the TDP offered up which put a focus on saving Doggett at all costs over everything else. Seriously, the GOP does have their shit together and creating 23 to this new configuration which is 58% Travis is a great pick up opportunity.

I can help you ActBlue.

by: Karl-Thomas Musselman @ Fri Jul 14, 2006 at 16:27:11 PM CDT

Yeah, not so bad (3.00 / 1)

Does Doggett keep the safe latino district and lose his Travis base, or does he come home to Travis and take on Bonilla in 23? I would want to be a part of that battle. They both have pretty good cash on hand, so it could come down to organization - advantage Dems. Doggett taking out Bonilla as a result of redistricting would be the sweetest irony.

by: George @ Fri Jul 14, 2006 at 16:54:11 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

I have to disagree, KT (3.50 / 2)

Doggett, in this map, either runs against Lamar Smith for CD-21 or runs against Bonilla for CD-23. CD 23 is unwinnable -- you could register every voter in Travis a Democrat, and it's still unwinnable. You'd have to look at the analysis -- and use common sense (you really think the R's drew a map that lets us oust Bonilla?). Bonilla is going to keep that seat, and I'd imagine you wouldn't want Doggett running against Courage...

The GOP map doesn't most clearly answer the call, either -- and it doesn't affect the least number of districts. One of the plaintiffs' maps (sorry, I can't remember which one, but I think it was LULAC's) only affected 4 districts (same as this one) and didn't displace a long-term incumbent (Doggett). It barely even affected Travis County -- it shifted some lines around in the Valley,  and even protected Bonilla and Cuellar, and that was all. If you're going for the map that does the least amount of change/disruption, that's the one.

Now, a very great man once said that some people rob you with a fountain pen.

by: Phillip Martin @ Fri Jul 14, 2006 at 19:56:27 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

CD 23 Unwinnable? No. Sorry. (0.00 / 0)

I don't buy the argument that a new CD 23, where Kerr and some of Bexar are just about the only similar county parts to the old 23, starving Bonilla of any base, and including all of what Courage had in Travis PLUS liberal and high turnout Hyde Park and some Hispanic precints AND more of South Austin is somehow unwinnable. Bullshit.  And you don't think that that map passing won't get the Democratic base juices stewing in Travis yet again?

4 here, 4 there. Either way, the rest of the maps alter more districts. The TDP map affects even more districts than that.

I guess I'm not as concerned about a simple incumbent protection plan or supporting party rhetoric just for the sake of doing so (you know that's never been my sytle). If we have to be screwed by redistricting, then I'm going to look at all the options that have a chance of getting chosen by the panel and this one isn't nearly as bad as people would like it to be. Sometimes, you have to admit the GOP does have their shit together and can put together a good plan.

I can help you ActBlue.

by: Karl-Thomas Musselman @ Fri Jul 14, 2006 at 21:26:13 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Pardon my language (0.00 / 0)

but you know, f that. =)

I can help you ActBlue.

by: Karl-Thomas Musselman @ Fri Jul 14, 2006 at 21:53:58 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

A Chance (0.00 / 0)

21: Courage
23: Doggett
25: Ciro
28: Raymond

It would take one hell of a year to win all four, but it has a chance.  By the way, anyone know when they would refile primaries yet?  Raymond may not have enough time to knock off Cuellar.

by: blank @ Fri Jul 14, 2006 at 22:28:52 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Just what I was thinking (0.00 / 0)

few quesitons though?

Would Courage stand a chance in 21?
WOuld Doggett's chance be better than tossup?
Who is Raymond?

by: trowaman @ Sat Jul 15, 2006 at 01:43:46 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

1. more thing (0.00 / 0)

affected are 2 republican districts, 2 democratic districts, If I'm reading this right we get 2 democratic deats (28, 25) 1 repubican district (21) and a toss up seat (23).

IF this is correct, Dogget should take 23. It'll be tough but he's got name ID and the political winds are in his favor. That and we all know Bonilla wants to move up the GOP ladder. Stopping him is kinda fun.

by: trowaman @ Sat Jul 15, 2006 at 01:47:20 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

or something else (0.00 / 0)

Courage will live in the new 23. Doggett has houses in both 23 and 21. You could always have Courage running against Bonilla and Doggett going afer Smith. Or he could just run in his 25th district.

I can help you ActBlue.

by: Karl-Thomas Musselman @ Sat Jul 15, 2006 at 01:50:32 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

23 Not Toss Up (0.00 / 0)

23 is more of a leans Republican with a nice piece of Travis county.  Doggett is the only one with enough name recognition to win this race. 

Richard Raymond is a state rep from Laredo.  He considered taking on Cuellar and Ciro but ducked out before it got hot.

by: blank @ Sat Jul 15, 2006 at 14:36:43 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

John Courage Statement (5.00 / 1)

For the record, whichever map is adopted, whoever he has to run against, John Courage will be running for Congress.

If he is running against Lamar Smith or Henry Bonilla, he will be running. Period.

(Note: Either or, whatever happens, John is in.)

Press Release: John Courage Statement on Texas Redistricting Map Proposals

Democratic candidate for the current Texas Congressional District 21 running strong "no matter what"

Austin, TX- July 14, 2006

Over the last few days, several proposed maps for the Texas Congressional redistricting have surfaced, and the Democratic candidate for the current Texas Congressional District 21, John Courage, had this to say:

"I am running strong no matter who I have to run against. I entered this race to give the voters of central Texas a choice against a Republican incumbent who has voted against their interests and let them down time and time again. Lamar Smith has been terrible for the district, and fits this profile completely. If I have to follow Lamar Smith in order to let the voters know about how he has let the community down on veteran's issues, the environment, or education, I will go where I need to go. I am running strong no matter what.

“If I am faced with taking on Henry Bonilla in Congressional District 23, I will do that as well. I entered this race to replace a Republican incumbent, and that's exactly what I am committed to doing."

John Courage is committed to the working men, women, and families of central Texas, and will fight vigorously for the shared ideals of real support of veteran's benefits, quality healthcare, quality education, and to change the culture of corruption in Washington, D.C., and be a representative for central Texas, not a rubber-stamp clone who prefers party allegiance and politics over the best interests of the district.

John Courage has been running an energetic campaign, and was recently named a "net-roots endorsed" candidate, receiving nearly 400 individual contributions in a single day. Courage also was recently named a "MapChanger" by Governor Mark Warner's Forward Together PAC, in a contest featuring Congressional, Senatorial, and Gubernatorial Democratic candidates from all over the country, and received a $5,000 contribution.

#####

http://www.courageforcongress.org

by: nickDFT @ Fri Jul 14, 2006 at 16:36:47 PM CDT

Doggett could have limited options if he stays in Travis (0.00 / 0)

Under the State's plan, CD 23 would be hopelessly Republican.  Bonilla or some Travis County Republican would be elected.

Doggett has reportedly put out a statement supporting one of the LULAC plans, which leaves the current CD 25 intact.

The GI Forum Plan guts Doggett for a San Antonio Hispanic. 

He undoubtedly would faces some tough choices.  For example, running against Lamar Smith is an option but would be equally difficult.

There's still a pretty good chance Lloyd Doggett can stay in Congress, he just would not represent Travis County anymore.

by: AaronSmith @ Fri Jul 14, 2006 at 17:43:28 PM CDT

CD 23 not Republican (0.00 / 0)

I don't know where people keep getting this from. The state plan makes Cd23 about 55/45, better than anything else we have right now. Plus, that's basing it off of 2002 numbers, you know, the ones when the HD 48 election wasn't even to 50/50 yet (and now was won 58/42 in our favor this spring...)  Bullshit to that arguement. CD 23 in this map is better than CD 21, which is better than the old CD 21. Yeah, it puts Doggett in a box, but it's a better map.

The TDP map (which has even less of a chance of being picked as one of the LULAC/MALDEF maps) was drawn around protecting Lloyd Doggett. But it's to the detriment of looking at the bigger picture.

I can help you ActBlue.

by: Karl-Thomas Musselman @ Fri Jul 14, 2006 at 21:18:10 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Some of the owens maps... (0.00 / 0)

are interesting as well. they create a valley district basically.  Id love to see come monday how much money raymond and cuellar have/

by: Morter Forker @ Sat Jul 15, 2006 at 00:26:16 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

If there is one thing you should have learned from... (2.00 / 1)

HD 48 it's that there is no safe Republican district with any anchorage in Travis County.

by: McBlogger @ Sat Jul 15, 2006 at 03:27:37 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

shhhh (2.00 / 1)

stop dissing the master plan mcblogger!

I can help you ActBlue.

by: Karl-Thomas Musselman @ Sat Jul 15, 2006 at 03:43:51 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

If I remember right... (3.00 / 1)

the last time this happened they judges tweaked the maps.  SO assuming any of these will be reality in their entirety is maybe not that smart.

by: Morter Forker @ Fri Jul 14, 2006 at 20:11:09 PM CDT

Good point (0.00 / 0)

You get a cookie

by: George @ Fri Jul 14, 2006 at 21:35:10 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

I wish there was (free) open source redistricting software (0.00 / 0)

I look from time to time, but I never find any.

I suppose the data would need to be open, too.

But how cool would that be, if we could draw our own maps using real data?

by: jelyon @ Fri Jul 14, 2006 at 22:08:14 PM CDT

Knock yourself out (0.00 / 0)

http://grass.itc.it/index.php

ftp://ftpgis1.tlc.state.tx.us/

by: George @ Sat Jul 15, 2006 at 07:38:53 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

I'm not a lawyer, but... (4.00 / 2)

I seem to have read the courts have said that Tom DeLay couldn't get off a ballot.  The election code definitely says that a candidate cannot run for two offices on the same ballot.

So, I don't think anyone (Raymond or any other nominee on the 2006 ballot would be eligible to file in these special elections which presumably (following court precedent in 1996) will have a new filing period with special elections on Nov 7 and a run-off in December, if necessary.

by: Glen Maxey @ Sat Jul 15, 2006 at 22:11:12 PM CDT

State Defendant Plan Bad (0.00 / 0)

From the Lege Council Printouts:

CD 23 - in 2004, state GOP average was 60.9% and in 2002 it was 57.4%.  Those are hardly encouraging numbers.

HD 48 you cannot compare 58% win in a special election versus gneral election statistics.  I think Donna Howard will win handily but only because Bentzin is a dork, not because there has been some seismic shift in the electorate.

The only way to beat Bonilla is if Doggett decides that is his best course of action.  His $3 million versus Bonilla's $1 million might give him a shot - but it would still be tough.

Bonilla would essentially be representing most of the Republican areas of Travis County, so there is really no way for Doggett to build up a big head of steam here in his home county.

The rest of the district is just horrible for a Democrat.  Horrible.

Let's hope the state plan does not get adopted.  It probably puts Bonilla in Congress and Doggett out.

by: AaronSmith @ Mon Jul 17, 2006 at 12:35:34 PM CDT

If Doggett looses (0.00 / 0)

He can run for governor in '10!

And then in '14, Lloyd can run for President.

Somewhere in there, Kirk Watson runs for Guv, and Strama runs for SD 14.

by: jelyon @ Mon Jul 17, 2006 at 19:24:55 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Er, 12 or 16. (0.00 / 0)

I gud at maf.

by: jelyon @ Mon Jul 17, 2006 at 19:26:07 PM CDT

[ Parent ]