With one week left before Election Day, there are not a lot of places left where a last minute splash of cash can change the direction of a statewide race. It's too late to gear up direct mail production that isn't already in process and by the time you hire new field organizers the election may be over. But late TV buys, while more expensive per point now, are still a place where late money can be funneled- especially if the targeting is already done.
With tens of millions already spent to define and promote the issues at the top of the ballot, it's very unlikely that an additional $1 million in the Governor's race would be the gamechanging financial move. But for underfunded downballot races a similar investment could provide a major impact, and in some cases, provide a positive spillover across the ticket. The biggest thing that could happen to the Democrats this fall to boost the Party's chances in 2012 and 2014 is simple- win a statewide race. The momentum and fundraising that a single breakthrough win would provide could easily turn a $1 million investment in 2010 into a $3-$10 million value over the next few years. It's hard to quantify, but coming away empty handed costs the party millions every cycle between the dollars spent re-energizing the base from square one and the lost fundraising from new donors who would otherwise open their wallets once they know they aren't wasting their money on yet another hopeless cycle.
Below I outline 3 races where someone like Steve Mostyn, Farouk Shami, Tony Sanchez, or another forward thinking Democratic donor could make a strategic investment and impact the 2010, 2012, and 2014 elections all at once. Not to mention make a name for themselves.
Lt. Governor's Race: Linda Chavez-Thompson
Incumbent Lt. Governor David Dewhurst is well funded, but his polling is weaker than other statewide Republcians. More importantly, Linda Chavez-Thompson's entire campaign operation is built around turning out voters in the triangle formed by South Texas, San Antonio, and El Paso. She's talked about benefits of turning out the Hispanic vote- something she can do, wants to do, and will do if she had the money to fully implement her plan. Her media plan is focused, obvious, and can easily scale up. Her campaign is more than shovel ready- it's already turning dirt. Swap out the shovel for an excavator and she can dig up a mountain of votes. Dewhurst isn't talking to these voters- he's too busy advertising to white, right-leaning voters in his quest to replace Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison in 2012. And every vote that Chavez-Thompson turns out in the Southern Triangle is highly likely to be voting for Bill White and the rest of the Democratic ticket.
Value: Best place for a rising tide to lift all boats.
Ag Commissioner's Race: Hank Gilbert
Lost in the media's hubbub about the "negativity" of this race is the fact that Hank Gilbert has garnered a ton of earned media in primary and secondary markets across the state, many of which aren't online and have flown under the radar of most electoral observers. The variety of stories and hits is second only to Bill White's. The only statewide candidate to have run before against the same opponent, Gilbert has been busy executing his plan in East & West Texas. He can't claim as many newspaper endorsements, but he's blocked a number of the second tier markets from taking a side. He's easily the most authentically 'rural' candidate on the ballot and has been in tune with the simmering anger in the electorate for over 4 years; he never stopped running for this office, setting up anti-toll road (and anti-Perry) groups around the state. As of the last report he had about $100,000 on hand, but incumbent Todd Staples only had about $750,000 most of which has been spent on both sides. Staples is still a weak fundraiser like he was in 2006 and is prone to being spooked into draining his campaign accounts. Unlike Perry or Combs or Abbott, he does not have a skilled political team or instincts. Gilbert's media plan is ready to go and being an Ag Commission candidate, is not going head-to-head in the urban markets in which White and Perry have run up the prices. Added bonus- big Republican donors aren't loyal to Staples, there is a Libertarian in the race, and there is no GOP-sponsored Green Party candidate running.
Value: Higher name ID downballot Democrat with cheap east and west Texas media versus the least skillful, shortest serving statewide Republican incumbent who happens to be low on cash. Plus a Libertarian. And no Green.
Railroad Commissioner's Race: Jeff Weems
Besides the fact that most of the electorate doesn't know we have a Railroad Commissioner (not to mention three of them), this race is unique. Generic no-name Republican David Porter forced incumbent Victor Carrillo into a runoff- and then beat him- by 22 points- while spending 1/20th as much as Carrillo. This led to the infamously blistering Carrillo attack on Porter and the Republican Party for its knee-jerking anti-Hispanic voting tendencies. Other than being James Leininger's PAC treasurer, Porter is an unqualified nobody from Giddings that doesn't campaign. Even his friends thought he was crazy. Democratic Jeff Weems, a Houston energy lawyer and third-generation son of the oil patch, is immeasurably qualified. He's earned every newspaper endorsement in the race. Harvey Kronberg has stated that "If this is an industry-only election, Weems would win." The 8-Day campaign finance report are out and it's shocking how little money there is in this race. If not for Porter's small personal loan, he'd have just $18,000 cash on hand. Weems has been trouping around many of the same areas as Gilbert and shares many of the same benefits of cheaper, ready to access rural media markets. But unless something changes, the GOP, Dems, Libertarians, and Green will have a 4-way battle of "who's name do voters like best" to decide our next Railroad Commissioner.
Value: If you think GOP donors aren't hot on Todd Staples, they really don't give a hoot about David Porter. With fellow Railroad Commissioners Elizabeth Ames Jones and Michael Williams distracted by posturing for Sen. Hutchison's Senate seat, a funded Weems could pass by an unaided Porter and create a foothold for Democrats.
Campaign donations in Texas are often a matter of risk versus reward. I believe in every Democrat running statewide, but with one week to go, it's my belief that these races offer specific opportunities. Our oft-forgotten statewide judicial candidates may yet pull the highest vote percentages (like Bill Moody and Sam Houston in 06 and 08) but voters are harder to persuade in judicial races and statewide judges clearly can't be the same sort of advocates, fundraisers, or campaigners as the other elected officeholders I mentioned.
Now if only I had $1 million.
While I have worked with the Gilbert campaign on their email strategy, but I do not have a contractual financial interest with the other campaigns; other writers through GNI Strategies have worked with Chavez-Thompson.
Jeff Weems received the backing of the Dallas Morning News in a strongly worded endorsement that makes it clear who the best candidate for the job is.
In a lower ballot race like RRC, where many voters are not familiar with either candidate, newspaper endorsements could take on more signifance. If that is true, Weems could ultimately be a significant advantage to his opponent, Republican David Porter, who upset incumbent Railroad Commissioner Victor Carillo in the primary and since then has seldom been heard from. If other editorial boards have anywhere close to similar impressions of Weems and Porter that the DMN had it is easy to imagine Weems coming close to sweeping the state's newspaper endorsements.
Seldom do we run into a first-time candidate for any office and wonder why that person hasn't already been elected to the job. But that's how impressed this newspaper is withDemocratJeff Weems, who is seeking election to the Texas Railroad Commission.
The 52-year-old Houston attorney would be ready on Day One to make a significant contribution, which is why we strongly recommend him for the three-member panel.
Weems' familiarity with the oil industry began long ago, as his family has been involved in the business for three generations. In his own career, he started as an oil land-man and worked his way into an oil-and-gas law practice.
His understanding of the industry shows. He can talk chapter and verse about energy issues, which the oddly named Railroad Commission oversees. And he is a sharp contrast to some candidates who shoot for the commission on their way to a higher post.
If you have time, I encourage you to read the entire endorsement and pass it on to anyone who may be undecided (or uneducated) about this race.
On a Railroad Commission that votes lockstep in the interests of big oil and gas and where both remaining commissioners (after the exit of Carillo) have made their ambitions for higher office well-known during their U.S. Senate candidacies, Weems' expertise and true desire to do the job would be a real breath of fresh air.
Weems is the second statewide Democrat the DMN has endorsed, following Keith Hampton earlier this week.
Over the past ten weeks, the Texas Democratic Party promoted an unprecedented "Meet the Statewides" campaign on our website. Each week, we promoted content for our statewide candidates on our website, Facebook, and Twitter pages. We asked candidates to submit a video, write an original op-ed, and provide biographical information. We at the TDP also penned an issue piece, sent out all material to our e-mail list, and created duplicative Spanish-language pages for each candidate.
Yesterday, we began looking back at our series by looking at our statewide judicial candidates. Read our post from yesterday ("Our "Meet the Statewides" Series: Texas Supreme Court & Court of Criminal Appeals Candidates") to read about Texas Supreme Court Candidates Jim Sharp, Blake Bailey, and Bill Moody, as well as Court of Criminal Appeals candidate Keith Hampton.
Today, we wanted to focus on our next batch of statewide candidates:
Practicing law on both sides of the docket, Barbara Ann Radnofsky is a mother, wife, teacher, and mediator. Texas educated, she’s a magna cum laude graduate from the University of Houston and an honors graduate from University of Texas Law School. In 2006, after 27 years of law practice, Barbara Ann left Vinson & Elkins as Head of the Alternate Dispute Resolution Section to become the first woman in history to serve as the Texas Democratic U.S. Senate nominee. She was the first woman at Vinson & Elkins to have children as an associate and attain partnership.
The Texas Attorney General picks his battles. It was a Texas Attorney General opinion which enabled Tom DeLay’s mid decade redistricting. To the great credit of the Texas Rangers in 2006, an election year, it was a Ranger who brought concrete evidence of sexual and physical abuse at the Texas Youth Commission to the Texas Attorney General. The Attorney General turned his back. Instead, he used Attorney General resources to target elderly and minority Democrats assisting the homebound to cast their mail in ballots. Attorney General Abbott squandered seven figures of discretionary funds, finding no organized widespread fraud or voter impersonation. Reports of investigators spying on an elderly woman in her bathroom and knocking on her door amid selective prosecutions of Democratic activists convey a political purpose: voter intimidation.
In the wake of the recent British Petroleum (BP) Gulf oil spill, Abbott didn’t even attempt to act like the state’s chief law enforcement officer. Despite BP’s horrific safety record, Abbott made excuses for the oil company rather than insisting that its plans and actions be scrutinized. Instead, Abbott said on May 3rd: “we’re seeing BP take all the right actions and make all the right comments.” (Source: KXAN-TV).
Great news from Democratic Railroad Commissioner candidate Jeff Weems this weekend, who bested two Republican candidates the New Boston straw poll. The poll was conducted at a well-attended candidate forum open to voters of all partisan persuasions. Weems received 49% of the votes to incumbent Victor Carrillo's 32%. Keep in mind that this event was held in Bowie County, where John McCain received 69% of the vote in 2008.
Weems is running a strong and energetic campaign across Texas focusing on bringing accountability to the Railroad Commission. These straw poll results demonstrate that when Weems is able to take his message to the voters and speak directly to them about how his campaign impacts their everyday lives, they listen, and they support him.
In a press release about the event, Weems stated:
"I'm thrilled by this show of support in a county that voted 69% for John McCain in 2008. The results reinforce my belief that Texans are ready for new leadership on the Railroad Commission. Texans want leaders who will listen to the concerns of all Texans, rural and urban. I am working hard as a candidate and will work even harder for the citizens of Texas as their newest Railroad Commissioner. I am deeply grateful to the voters in Bowie County who are passionate about politics and our great state as shown by their participation in the candidate's forum."
Jeff Weems has been running hard since he first declared for the race, and is unopposed in the primary. In fact, Weems often demonstrates more energy on the trail than folks in contested statewide primary campaigns. Weems' message, experience, and common-sense approach to energy issues clearly resonates with voters of both parties. However, as these races are often chronically underfunded, it's even more important that Democrats educate our friends and fellow voters about the race. Jeff Weems is a great candidate and a super guy, and I encourage you to check out his website and learn more about him in the coming months.
Jeff Weems is seeking the Democratic nomination for Railroad Commissioner to take on Republican incumbent Victor Carrillo (the only current member of the RR Commission not seating to replace Sen. Hutchison in a nonexistent U.S. Senate special election). Today, he released some straightforward plans which if enacted, would help to clean up the campaign finance laws surrounding the commissioners.
Weems's plan would eliminate payments to incumbent Commissioners when they are not running for election, require incumbent Commissioners to resign before running for other offices, and restrict the use of campaign contributions for funding travel not related to Commission business or election activities. Weems proposes to limit the dates that Commissioners may accept contributions to the period from July 1 in the year before the election year to two months after the general election.
Further, Weems proposes an outright ban on incumbent Commissioners from seeking campaign contributions for other political offices, effectively requiring them to resign before running for other positions, something that is highlighted by Commissioners Elizabeth Ames Jones and Michael Williams.
Parker County has no elected officials who are Democrats.
It's a sad state of affairs, but we're not just sitting around weeping about it. In fact, we're getting off our butts and welcoming several Democratic candidates at our third annual Old-Fashioned Democratic Rally, scheduled for Saturday, Oct. 3, at Hall Middle School in Weatherford.
The schedule of speakers is as follows:
12 p.m. - John Sharp
12:30 - Hank Gilbert
1 p.m. - Bill White
1:30 p.m. - Jeff Weems
2:50 - Felix Alvarado
3:30 - Neil Durrance
We'll also have appearances by State Rep Mark Veasey, a representative from Tom Schieffer's campaign, and Sharon Wilson (you may know her as TxSharon).
Plus, there will be all of the usual stuff: Silent auction items, baked goods, and barbecue!
This is shaping up to be a great event and we really, really need support, as we're kind of the Lone Rangers out here in Parker County. If you're in the DFW area, please come by.
If you need more info, please see www.parkercodemocrats.org. Thanks! Hope to see you there!
Jeff Weems, an oil and gas litigation attorney and active Democrat in Harris County, will be a candidate for the Democratic nomination for Railroad Commissioner next year.
Weems appointed a campaign treasurer on July 6 and has begun raising money and traveling the state. When he was in Austin earlier this week, some of us at BOR had a chance to meet with him and I came away very impressed.
Weems knows his stuff. After working summers on offshore oil rigs to finance his college education, Weems received a Petroleum Land Management degree from the University of Texas at Austin. He spent several years working in the oil and gas industry before returning to UT for law school.
The current Railroad Commissioners, two of whom are currently spending a large amount of their time on quixotic campaigns for the U.S. Senate, have shown a huge bias towards the gas utilities when rate cases are heard.
Weems faces an uphill battle, but his early moves and strong background indicate that he may ultimately become a serious challenger to Republican incumbent Victor Carrillo.
Former US Attorney General Alberto Gonzalez is going to be teaching at Texas Tech this fall. You better study because a) he'll know if you're not due to the wiretap on your phone and b) if you don't, you're not going to like the torture you'll receive for failing.
UrbanOmnibus posts an interesting thought piece you should read entitled A Country of Cities.
Republican incumbent Todd Staples says he's going to try to stay put as Ag Commissioner and not run elsewhere on the ballot. The then underfunded Hank Gilbert scared Staples into draining his coffers last cycle and that race looks to be headed to a re-match with what I hear will be a better funded, supported, and organized Hank Gilbert campaign. He'll also benefit from what will likely be a better funded and filled in ticket in 2010 compared to 2006.
Over in the Land Railroad Commissioner's race, where GOP incumbent Jerry PattersonVictor Carrillo is up for re-election, there is a Democratic candidate who has surfaced, Jeff Weems. I'll post more on him soon, as he just filed paperwork and was out in my hometown July 4th parade with the Gillespie County Democrats this past weekend.
