| We'll have to wait until later for the Secretary of State to update it's top 15 counties voter turnout table, but for now, we do have Travis and Bexar.
For Bexar county, their early vote page lists 8,591 as having voted Monday. In 2002, that number was 5,171 (for the first day which was a Saturday). Keep in mind though, that in 2002, some counties started voting early on Saturday and Sunday. October 21 (2002) was the Monday we should be comparing to which had 6,825 voters, by which point over 14,000 had already been cast on the weekend.
In Travis, 5,009 people cast a ballot in person, plus 2,471 by mail are reported in this dirst day bundle, for a total of 7,480 votes or 1.37% of the county. In 2002, 4,752 people voted the first day (a Saturday) and a nearly identical 5,045 on the actual Monday we should compare to (by which point over 12,500 weekend votes had already been cast). It took days for mail ballots to reach 2006 levels though this report could simply include all that have come in this month prior to yesterday. I'm willing to bet there is a sharp drop off in today's report, lowering the actual daily total.
In Tarrant, 7,497 ballots were cast in person today. In 2002, there were 6,266 cast on the Monday which for Tarrant was their dirst day then. Tarrent has also received 3,244 mail ballots to date for this election, bringing their total to 10,7441. In 2002, there were 9,633 mail ballots posted on the first day, meaning that Tarrent is actually down 32% in turnout from 2002 with mail ballots included.
As I have privately told friends here in Austin, I am not convinced that statewide turnout will be any higher than in 2002 and could in fact be lower. While the national mood has soured and many of the bums could be thrown out, many haven't taken into account that far fewer Texans have a clue that there are state elections even on the ballot. While there was over $100 million spent on the Governor's race alone 4 years ago, not to mention tens of millions more all down the ballot, I'd be shocked if there was over $30 million spent total. It's doubtful that Webb, Hidalgo, and the like will have even equal vote totals to 2002 without the Sanchez factor present.
Local races will drive turnout outside of the Governor's race and maybe Ag Commissioner. I believe that we will see turnout bumps in resurgent Democratic counties including Dallas & Fort Bend and in areas where local parties have revived for whatever reason. But unless Harris, Dallas, and Hidalgo show any spikes in turnout, I just don't see 1 million new voters showing up that any Independent candidate needs to win.
Travis County Early Voting results by location are listed in the extended entry. Click to view here. University of Texas site leads the list with 484 votes.
Update: In Fort Bend (which like Tarrant started voting in 2002 on a Monday), 1,599 votes were cast yesterday compared to 806 in 2002. I've also heard at least of a couple weeks ago, that Fort Bend at that point had already mailed out more applications for ballots by mail than had been event cast in 2004. I'd be willing to guess that TX-22 has a part to play in that and the Democratic activism in Fort Bend County these days. |
