Burnt Orange Report

Just The Facts...

By Damon McCullar

I saw this article over at the Chris Bell Blog. I thought was interesting enough to toss up on BOR. Mark McDonald over at Texas Lawyer scored Rick Perry's television commercial on a scale of 10 (fact) to 1 (pure fiction). Funny how there are facts and then there are "facts".

The rate of growth in the number of new doctors by region in traditionally underserved areas such as rural Texas and South Texas is lower now than it was before Prop 12. Only the major urban areas have seen any increase in the rate of growth. That largely may be due to factors not linked to medical malpractice, namely better facilities, fewer Medicaid patients and physicans' lifestyle choices. Even if more emergency room doctors are practicing in Texas, it doesn't mean they are delivering "better health care." According to a state-by-state report card conducted by the American College of Emergency Services, the state received near-failing grades in three of four categories: a D+ access to emergency care; a D+ in care/patient safety; and a D in patient safety. The state's overall average was helped by its grade in medical liability reform: A+. Because of tort reform, Texas ER physicians only can be sued for gross negligence rather than simple negligence. Supporters of Prop 12 claimed during the 2003 campaign that 60 percent of Texas counties were without obstetric and gynecology services. Today, more than two years after Prop 12 was implemented, roughly 60 percent of counties are still without those services.

The Index: Accuracy index rating — 2.4

Sorry Guv, but cause and effect on this issue is near-impossible to prove. And how can you say that lawsuit reform is bringing better health care to millions without acknowledging that one out of four Texans remains uninsured (highest rate in the nation), state spending on hospital care ranks near the bottom (41st in the nation) and there are huge shortages of board certified ER docs (44th) and registered nurses (48th)? We know you only had 30 seconds to make your pitch, but half the facts are worse than no facts at all.

Texas Young Democrats contribute $2,500 to Special Election Races

By Katie Naranjo

This week the board of the Texas Young Democrats PAC decided to contribute $2,500 to two candidates both engaged in Special Elections. The first recipient is Donna Howard running in HD 48, who is currently in a run-off due to her exceptional show in the election on Jan. 17th. The second recipient is Katy Hubener running in HD106 and is unopposed in the Democratic Primary and has great name ID in the district.

The board will give each candidate $2,500 to be used in the Special Election and the campaigns have already received the donations. TYD is very proud to support these candidates as they work against their opponents. The election date for HD106 is Feb. 28th and the election run-off date for Donna Howard is expected to be Feb. 14th.

Weekend Governor's Race Round Up

By Damon McCullar

It was a big weekend for the Democratic gubernatorial candidates!

Mexican-American Democrats of Texas Endorse Bell
The El Paso Times reports today that Chris Bell has picked up his first endorsement going into the Democratic Primary. The Mexican-American Democrats of Texas endorsed Bell for governor of Texas. The endorsements are starting to pile up in the Chris Bell camp. After looking at the Gammage website, the only endorsement I could find was from Rep. Jim Dunnam of Waco.

Bell Accepts Invite for Debate
The Dallas ABC affiliate, WFAA has invited Chris Bell and Bob Gammage to a debate. As reported by Jason Stanford, the Chris Bell campaign has accepted the invitation. As of this writing, there has been no response from the Gammage Campaign.

Bell, Gammage Stump at Mid-Cities Candidate Forum and Chili Cook-off
As reported in the Statesmen, both Democratic candidates for governor attended the Mid-Cities Candidate Forum and Chili Cook-off this weekend. Both candidates urged their partisan supporters to ignore the "conventional wisdom" out there that the eventual nominee has no chance in November. From the Statesman article:

Bell called Saturday's turnout awesome, saying: "Note to news media: Hundreds of people don't show up to a union hall on a Saturday night unless they are completely fed up with what's going on in their country and what's going on in their state. The chili may be good, but it's not that good."

The crowd gave Bell, a former U.S. House member who has been touring the state since early last year, a standing ovation.

Gammage said: "I'm not sure how extinct we (Democrats) are. The people in this room are the tip of the iceberg."

The former Texas Supreme Court justice, who entered the race just before the Jan. 2 filing deadline, drew a partial ovation.

Who Knew Gamers Were That Political?

By Vince Leibowitz

I guess I never thought about gamers being terribly political, but I found it amusing to note that not only is there a website that tracks politics as it relates to gaming (video, not casino), but they aren't too happy about Star Locke's proposal to tax violent video games.

In addition, neither Games Are Fun News nor GameSpot News are very happy with Star Locke.

Juan Garcia Kicks Off Campaign Tomorrow

By Damon McCullar

Navy veteran and lawyer Juan Garcia kicks off his campaign for state rep tomorrow with none other than Gen. Wesley Clark. The campaign kickoff is at 4pm at the Selena Auditorium in Corpus Christi.

I had an opportunity to speak to Juan last night in a phone interview.

DM: When did you first consider running for public office?

JG: Starting about a year! ago, I started receiving emails encouraging me to run and folks from around the state started making the trip down to Corpus to make the case for why it was important, and why it made sense to run for this seat. But the fact is I've always felt a calling to serve, and that's why after graduating from law school I went to naval flight training. If ever somehow involved down the road in making that most sacred of decisions, whether to send young men and women into harm's way, I think it's important
to have taken a turn yourself.

DM: Why state rep? Why not city council or governor or anything else
in between?

JG: When I was first approached about running for office, it was in terms of an open US Senate seat (because Senator Hutchinson was rumored to be running for governor). I was intrigued, and very interested in talking about the war, and the issues surrounding it. But as we all know, that didn't happen, and to try and raise the massive warchest necessary to compete with an entrenched, incumbent U.S. Senator, especially as a first-time candidate, just didn't make sense. But I feel that I can make an immediate difference in the Texas House. On the heels of a string of failed sessions dedicated to education, I think there's a unique opportunity here to impact schooling throughout Texas.

DM: Tell me about your family?
JG: My Dad is a retired navy pilot from Robstown, the next little town past Corpus. He flew A-7 attack jets, and he used to always say that if he'd been there with an A-7, the Alamo would have been a whole different story. The Navy has a tradition called a "Tiger Cruise," in which the aircraft carrier, after a deployment to the Gulf, pulls into Pearl Harbor, and family members board the ship, and ride it back home into San Diego. I did a Tiger Cruise aboard the USS Constellation with my dad when I was 8 years old, and that's really where I got the bug to fly. 25 years later I got to return the
favor, when he was my guest aboard the Constellation. My wife and I met as classmates at Harvard Law School. She grew up in New
York, and settling down in my hometown in South Texas was a tough sell for her initially, but she's come to love it. We have four kids, the oldest being 7-year old twins: three boys and a daughter, whom if my plan holds, will enter the Convent when she's 16.

DM: Tell me about your naval career?

JG: I spent 13 years on active duty, and left in October 2004 as a
Lieutenant Commander. I was a pilot, did a couple deployments to the Gulf, and served as the aide-de-camp to the deputy Commander in
Chief of U.S. Naval Forces in Europe. I'm still serving as an Instructor Pilot in the Naval Reserve, teaching the Navy's newest pilots to fly, right here at Naval Air Station Corpus Christi. (My youngest brother is a newly-commissioned officer in the Navy and reports to flight training in a couple weeks. We're hoping we get to fly together - in which case he will
see the inside of his stomach!).

DM: Gen. Wesley Clark is coming to your campaign kickoff, what is
your relationship to him?

JG: I served under his command during Kosovo, and later got to know him when was selected to be a White House Fellow. He was a White House Fellow as well, and later served on the board that selects future Fellows. He's got one of the most amazing bio's in American public life, and I'm honored that he's making the trip down to the Coastal Bend for my event.

Bell Campaign Endorsed By Garnet Coleman

By Vince Leibowitz

Chris Bell's campaign today announced another high-octane Texas legislative endorsement today: Garnet Coleman.

Coleman had this to say about Bell:

In the last legislative session, Houstonian Scott Hochberg offered a now famous amendment on the school finance bill that demonstrated the devastating power of a good idea. Another Houstonian, my friend Chris Bell, has brought the power of bright ideas to his campaign. My friend has some great ideas about how we can get Texas moving in the right direction again, which is why today I am proud to endorse Chris for Texas Governor.

And, for those who were criticizing the Bell campaign in the comments yesterday for not having any issues, here are a few that Coleman spotlighted in endorsing Bell:

Right now legislative pensions are tied to judicial salaries, meaning that we lawmakers give ourselves a pension increase when we raise judges’ pay. Meanwhile, teacher pay is abysmally low. Chris has proposed linking legislative pensions to teacher pay to provide an extra incentive for state legislators to raise teacher pay.

Right now we send Texas National Guardsmen and women into overseas combat with a salute, a pat on the back, and not much else. Chris has proposed that the state reimburse these heroes for their life insurance premiums to protect their families’ financial securitt.

Right now college students are compensating for skyrocketing tuition by buying only some of their textbooks. Chris has embraced the common-sense idea of making college textbooks tax-free to make it a little easier.

And this one is near and dear to my heart—the Texas Enterprise Fund is a slush fund for corporate welfare, plain and simple. The State of Texas has spent $217 million of the people’s money to create, as of last year, a miniscule 275 jobs. That’s a pretty pathetic return on a sizable investment. Instead, Chris wants to fully fund the Skills Development Fund that partners Texas community colleges with existing small businesses for job training programs. This program has financed training for 15,559 new jobs and 28,832 existing jobs at a cost of only $900 per job over the last three years. And the best part is that this program helps existing Texas businesses, not out-of-state corporations.

Finally, our public schools are treating standardized tests like they’re the cure and not a diagnosis. The Perry administration is using high-stakes testing to teach our kids, but that works as well as using a thermometer to lower a fever. The result of this blind loyalty to Enron-style accountability is the country’s top dropout rate, which in turn has created a School-to-Prison Pipeline that has filled our prisons and emptied half a generation of its promise. Chris Bell wants Texas to have the best public schools in the country, and he wants to start by getting away from the high-stakes nature of these tests and giving control of classrooms back to teachers and principals where it belongs.

And, by way of an update on yesterday's post on Bell demanding Strayhorn return the money she got from James Leininger, Kuff has more, including a link to a Houston Chronicle story on the topic. And, the Chron's not the only outlet picking this up. It's received good coverage state wide, to wit: Dallas Morning News; Brownsville Herald; KLTV Tyler; KWTX (Waco/Temple); and KRIS-TV (Corpus Christi).

Bell Calls for Less Emphasis on TAKS Test

By Phillip Martin

I know most have already seen this, but since the Statesman's headline was a bit misleading and caused some confusion, I wanted to try and clear the matter up.

Chris Bell spoke yesterday in advocacy of changing Texas' policy of high-stakes testing for students. Rather than solely relying on standardized test scores to decide if students pass or fail, Bell would like to see several different student achievement measures taken into consideration. From today's Austin-American Statesman:

Bell said the TAKS demands should give way to a traditional approach, leaving students' advancement largely up to teachers, principals and parents.

His position was nearly echoed by Jeremy Warren, a spokesman for Democratic candidate Bob Gammage of Llano, who said the test scores should be among several tools for determining whether students advance, with others including grades.

Bell said: "Whether a child moves forward should not be based upon the test. It should be how they perform in their respective courses." He said he wouldn't outlaw the TAKS, letting educators use standardized tests to compare schools and students and to identify individual student needs.

The title to Gardner Selby's article is "Bell wants to scrap TAKS," which misses and misrepresents Bell's point. As he says in the quote above, he doesn't want to outlaw the TAKS test. He just doesn't believe that it should be the only measure for student achievement.

Personally, I completely agree with Bell on this issue. I'll post my extensive reasons why I agree later on in the day. For now, let's hear some of your thoughts.

***UDPATE*** The Statesman re-did their headline. The online headline of the article know reads, "Bell wants to de-emphasize TAKS." I said he calls for less emphasis on TAKS...but, you know. Happy to see they kept it from being too misleading. To anyone at the Statesman who might happen to read this -- I appreciate it.

Bell To Strayhorn: Give The Sugar Daddy Back His Money

By Vince Leibowitz

Via Chris Bell's blog, I noticed that AP has picked up on a speech he gave challenging Carole Four Names to give back $100,000 she took from voucher advocate James Leininger.

As you will recall, I pointed out earlier that Strayhorn was opposing vouchers though she'd taken thousands from the voucher advocate.

And, I'm very glad to see Chris Bell calling Carole Keeton Strayhorn on the carpet for this:

Independent candidate for governor Carole Keeton Strayhorn now says she's against private school vouchers but in the past took $100,000 in campaign donations from a millionaire voucher advocate, Democrat Chris Bell said Tuesday.

Bell criticized Strayhorn for saying she opposes using taxpayer money to send children to private schools. Her comments last week were aimed at Republican Gov. Rick Perry, who favors a pilot voucher program.

"Texas needs to trust that its leaders will have the courage of their convictions," Bell said. "When she says that vouchers are off the table, well, for how long? And when will they be back?"

Boom! Exactly what I was trying to say in my earlier post, but thank you, Chris Bell, for saying it with class and not beating around the bush.

AP noted that, From 2000 to 2003, Strayhorn accepted contributions totaling $100,000 from conservative San Antonio businessman James Leininger, a voucher supporter. Late in her 1998 run for state comptroller, Leininger secured a $950,000 loan to Strayhorn's campaign, and in the 1999 legislative session she supported a voucher plan that failed.

After what Bell had to say, though, is this quote from Strayhorn on the subject has to be my second favorite, and I'll tell you why after you read it:

"Some years ago I could philosophically discuss with you the possibility of taking a disadvantaged kid and trying a pilot program with disadvantaged kids on vouchers. That's absolutely off the table now. The reason it's off the table is we've got to save public education."

So, she just now came to this conclusion on Friday, after she was confronted by the issue? The reason I like this quote so much is because Democrats are constantly being bashed because we've 'changed our minds' on so many issues from abortion to the war in Iraq (a la John Kerry 2004). This quote gives Democrats a prime opportunity to give a Republican back a heepind tablespoon of their own medicine.

And, thanks to Chris Bell for giving Carole Strayhorn a good dose of that, no to mention that it is frightening to think that educators have given their endorsement to someone who may not trust "the courage of their convictions."

Young Conservatives of Texas Issue Their Endorsements: Big Surprise There

By Vince Leibowitz

The Young Conservatives of Texas (the same folks who brought you illegal immigrant roundups) have issued their GOP Primary endorsements.

For the most part, there were no major surprises, except that YCT picked Mark Williams over Tommy Merritt (R-Longview) in State House District 7, and that YCT declined to endorse anyone in HDs 78 and 10.

YCT's endorsement of Williams isn't that much of a surprise, though, given that Merritt hasn't been a favorite of the GOP leadership for some reason. This was especially evident in 2004 when he went up against Kevin Eltife (R-Tyler) and Paul Sadler (D-Henderson) in the race to fill Bill Ratliff's senate seat in the special election. I was, however, somewhat shocked that they endorsed the opponent of a fairly popular incumbent in a fairly red area.

As for the candidates in HDs 78 (Rep. Patrick Haggerty and Lorraine O'Donnell) and 10 (Rep. Jim Pitts and Duke Burge) I am surprised they claimed that none of the candidates were in agreement with the political philosophy of Young Conservatives of Texas. After all, wasn't Jim Pitts in favor of 11-year-olds being eligible for the death penalty?

Of course, Haggerty has seemingly been targeted for replacement by his own party, along with Carter Casteel and others. Casteel, it should be noted, wasn't endorsed either. YCT picked challenger Nathan Macias. In fact, neither Geren, Jones nor Smith were endorsed by YCT, and all were targeted by the state GOP in last fall's recorded message poll, too. Interesting.

Dunnam Endorses Gammage: Your Thoughts?

By Vince Leibowitz

[Author's Note: I've updated this post as, after reading it, I realize it didn't say what I intended it to say and, in fact, inadvertantly insulted many Democrats I respect very highly. So, toward that end, to anyone who took this post wrong, I hope you'll forgive my momentary lapse in judgement and chalk it up to my fingers getting ahead of my brain-VL]

House Democratic Caucus Chair Jim Dunnam (D-Waco) has endorsed Bob Gammage for Governor.

And, although it's the only endorsement I've seen on Gammage's website (and the only one I'm aware of outside the other "Dirty 30" candidates), it is no doubt an important endorsement.

However, does that single endorsement outweigh all of Chris Bell's endorsements?

In my original post, I inadvertantly communicated that it did. Or, at least, I felt that way after I re-read the post.

What I had intended to say is that, throughout Texas, Dunnam is probably better known, generally speaking, than many of the people who have endorsed Chris Bell. That said, there is no doubt in my mind that, while Dunnam's endorsement will play well for Gammage in some areas because of that, the endorsements of party giants like Juan "Chuy" Hinojosa and Molly Beth Malcom certainly play well for Bell, and I wasn't intending to downplay the lengthy and distinguished list of people who have endorsed Chris Bell.

I guess what I was trying to say is that, while Chris Bell has numerous endorsements (there is someone who appeals to just about everyone on that list, from Pete Gallego to Max Sandlin), Gammage has only one, but it is an important one.

Does that mean it is more important that Chris Bell's endorsements? No, not necessarily. Does it mean Gammage needs only one endorsement? No, it doesn't. Chris Bell's been endorsed by a wide spectrum of people from local officials to former Congressmen.

The dialogue I was really trying to start is: what do readers think about endorsements in general? What about these endorsements specifically? What role do they play in a campaign? How much do they matter to you as a voter?

Remember John Sharp's 'Endorsement Derby' with David Dewhurst in 2002? Sharp dozens more endorsements than Dewhurst, but he didn't win. Of course, those were groups and PACS, not individual people. Chris Bell, on the other hand, has more than a few Texas Democrats with major name recognition (either statewide or in their own areas of Texas).

So, again, what do you think? And, this isn't meant as a free-for-all for people to bash Bell or Gammage. Simply, what are your thoughts on endorsements and they role they play in political races?

Gee...I Guess She's Not Getting Any Money From Bob Perry, Either!

By Vince Leibowitz

Is it me, or did I just take time out of my busy schedule the other day to point out a Carole Keeton McClellan Rylander Strayhorn hypocrisy? I think I did, concerning school vouchers.

Well, thanks a lot, One Tough Grandma, but I've got to do it again, except this time, it has to do with the Texas Residential Construction Commission.

Although her comments this time were following a review her office performed of the commission on request from Rep. Todd Smith (R-Euless), it was still laced with the campaign rhetoric:

The Texas Residential Construction Commission is acting as a "builder protection agency" and has no power to force homebuilders to repair construction defects in new houses, Comptroller Carole Keeton Strayhorn said Monday.

...

"For these reasons, if it were up to me personally, I would blast this Texas Residential Construction Commission off the bureaucratic books," Strayhorn said.

...

"Caveat emptor _ let the buyer beware _ is the motto of the unscrupulous. It should not be the hallmark of state policy," she said.

Once again, I ask: Has 'One Tough Grandma' Lost Her Marbles?

It appears that, one by one, Carole Four Names is distancing herself from the 'achievements' of the Texas GOP over the past four years and from the Republican Party Platform in general.

Keep in mind the Texas Residential Construction Commission was created as part of the Legislature's huge "Tort Reform" crusade back in 2003. The entire purpose of the TRC, though no one will dare say so, is so millionaire campaign contributors like Bob Perry (one of the people behind Swift Boat Veterans for Truth in the '04 presidential election) don't have to be subjected to nasty little lawsuits over the homes they build.

Ok. So, she's abandoned school vouchers, now she's abandoning tort reform. What's next? Will she be supporting government-funded abortions on the floor of the Capitol Rotunda? Making it illegal to own a gun?

Seriously, is she just trying to piss off everyone who has ever given her money? Will she back away from everything her party has ever supported all in the name of getting votes?

I mean, it was kind of funny to see her bitch about vouchers. And, it's amusing to watch her complain about the Texas Residential Construction Commission. But this is becoming something very alarming--and something that anyone that has every even THOUGHT about supporting Carole Strayhorn as the "Anybody But Perry" candiate should think about: she's flip-flopping more than a fish out of water.

Strayhorn's entered a special political danger zone of a black hole here: in order to get votes, she'll say anything, do anything and promise anything to get ahead.

Let's not forget Carole Strayhorn was on the Legislative Redistricting Board that gave the Texas House and Senate a composition that fostered a climate to pass such asinine legislation as that which created the Texas Residential Construction Commission. She was lock-step, arm and arm with her party then.

But now that she's a "Texas Independent," she's running from all of that as fast as possible.

Of course, I'm not the only one who realizes the hypocrisy of Grandma Four Names. The Chris Bell campaign is right on top of it, too:

Strayhorn stayed away Monday from talking about her run for governor as an independent against Republican Gov. Rick Perry. But an aide to Democratic gubernatorial candidate Chris Bell suggested that Strayhorn's criticism of the construction commission had a political bent.

Strayhorn, who ran for comptroller as a Republican, accepted some $160,000 in campaign contributions from prominent Houston builder Bob Perry from 2000 to 2003, but didn't get any after that, the Bell campaign said. Bob Perry also has been one of Rick Perry's biggest contributors.

"Of course the Texas Residential Construction Commission is a case study in corruption. The Comptroller doesn't have to misuse her state office to prove that," Bell spokesman Jason Stanford said in a prepared statement.

Kinky Friedman on 60 Minutes Yesterday

By Damon McCullar

The Kinkster appeared on 60 minutes last night. He was still touting his stands on gay marriage, prayer in school, immigration (close the borders until Mexico cracks down) and the "Ten Suggestions":

"The Ten Commandments. The Ten Commandments being taken out of the public schools. I want them back," says Friedman.

Why?

"I want them back, they belong there," says Friedman. "Maybe I'll have to change their name to the Ten Suggestions, you know. But they were taken out, not by separation of church and state, but by political correctness gone awry. One atheist stands up and says, 'I don't like the Ten Commandments,' and suddenly out they go. And, of course, we all know what happens to an atheist when he dies. His tombstone usually reads, 'All dressed up and no place to go.' "

[...]

I'll tell you right now. I'm for prayer in school," he says. "I say what's wrong with a kid believing in something? I don't care if it's a tree or a rock or something, he should believe in something. I also support gay marriage. I say they have every right to be just as miserable as the rest of us. And I'll tell you another thing, you won't find any candidate that supports prayer in school and gay marriage. For that reason alone, people should vote for an independent-thinking person."

>

The only two things that I really learned from the interview is that Kinky is single and is an ex-Coke head. Oh yeah, he plans on getting the 71% of registered voters that didn't vote for for governor last go around to vote this time...good luck with that.

Andry Brown Press Conference @ 9 AM

By Karl-Thomas Musselman

Andy Brown will be having a press conference on the South Capitol Steps Monday morning at 9 AM with Senate nominee Kirk Watson and Austin House Reps where he will be announcing his endorsement of Donna Howard. It is suspected that he will become Co-Chair of Howard's Run-Off campaign and will be writing a large check to her campaign.

I'll say this: Rick Perry tried to divide Democrats in an election engineered to favor his man Ben Bentzin. Unfortunately for Rick Perry, Bentzin is no longer favored and Democrats are united for the run-off. Andy Brown, I wish you had been given a fairer shake in this election, but you have proven yourself to be a classy man, putting the interests of the District and Party before yourself. Having already sent out thousands of mail pieces urging Democrats to vote in the Special Election, I feel today's actions will solidify your standing in many an activists heart.

And you know, there are still a few Republicans left in this County where a challenge by a certain Mr. Brown at some point would have our support!

Perry Calls HD 106 Special Very Close To Primary

By Vince Leibowitz

Update: I'm a little off on this one, as I didn't check the Election Code (hey, give me a break, it's Saturday!). More on that and other good stuff (like Smith being unable to run in the special) in the comments, so check them out.)

February 28 will be the date for the special election in HD 106 following Ray Allen's early departure from the Lege. That's seven days before the March Primary, not counting the special election day itself. Early voting will begin February 13.

Given the fact that Democrats faired well in the recent Special Election in HD 48, I'm not surprised that Perry has set the date so far out and so close to the March Primary. In fact, if I remember my dates correctly, early voting for the regular primary begins Feb. 21, meaning that both elections will essentially be going on simeltaniously to some degree.

So, why did Perry pick such a date? I think it's for two reasons. First, because Kirk England is the GOP establishment favorite in HD 106, and he's got a primary opponent in Edward Smith. I'm thinking that, if England bests Smith and he and Katy Hubener go into a runoff at the same time a primary is going on (wouldn't that be wierd?) Smith would likely drop out, meaning it may make things easier for England.

Second, I'm sure they want to set forth enough time to allow England to raise some cash.

Finally, and it's a little sad, but I'm thinking that Perry hopes voters will be suffering from "election fatigue" or confusion and that perhaps some Democrats won't vote in the Special Election but rather in the Primary only, especially since election day overlaps with early voting for the primary. Strange, I know, but who knows what is on their minds.

Candidates have until January 30 to file for the special election. Early voting will begin Feb. 13.

Given all this, please go help out Katy Hubener. You can contribute online, and she'll need everything she can get to defeat whatever the GOP will throw at her for the Special.

The Pot Calling The Kettle A Voucher Advocate: What Won't She Do To Get Ahead?

By Vince Leibowitz

Carole Keeton McClellan Rylander Stayhorn...what are we going to do with you, honey?

Like a stubmling nursing home patient who forgot to take her "memory pills," and accused her own son of hiding the family silver where she couldn't find it, 'One Tough Grandma' Carole Strayhorn today accused GOP Governor Rick Perry of dismantling public schools in favor of vouchers.

Poor 'One Tough Grandma!' I guess she forgot to take her Ginko, because all of her commercials I see on television, though she proclaims herself a "Texas Independent" end up having the word "REPUBLICAN" flash down somewhere on the right hand side of the screen at some point.

Not to mention the fact that back in 1998, she was all about being supreme voucher advocate (and right-wing Sugar Daddy) James Leininger's bitch when he guaranteed a $950,000 loan that helped catapult her into office with that landslide .05 percent of the vote.

Sure. She has the TSTA endorsement. She's gotta complain about vouchers and claim that Rick Perry is going to destroy public education as we know it. That Perry will destroy public schools with vouchers is true, so in that regard, I'm not calling Mrs. Keeton McClellan Rylander Strayhorn a liar. However, I do not recall her ever coming out so strongly against vouchers prior to her exploring a race for governor.

Now, if anyone else does, please, by all means, correct me. I've Googled the subject to death, and found nothing substantive. To be fair, I also Googled around to find articles about Strayhorn (yes, I Googled under all the various and sundry names) supporting vouchers and found little except the fact that, duh, Leinninger and other voucher advocates have given her tons of money over the years.

Of course, when she started sparring with Perry, Dewhurst, Craddick, et al circa 2003-2004, that did stop or decline, as I recall from media accounts at the time.

So, what's the real deal with 'One Tough Grandma?'

It's easy to say that Carole Four Names either (a) never supported vouchers or only mildly supported them or (b) she still supports them and is lying because it's politically appropriate right now.

However, I believe the cold, hard, naked truth swirling around Strayhorn like the smell of urine at an animal shelter is that she simply says and does whatever is politically expiedient for her at the time and whatever she believes will help her get ahead the fastest to the next level.

Look at her past: Strayhorn's nothing but a chameleon who changes her spots/stripes/political colors to suit her own ambition. She's had more differing opinions and political viewpoints than she has had last names.

Though I'm sure readers of BOR are tired of me referring to the classic Austin Chronicle piece from '98 about Strayhorn, just recall this quote from that article if you have any doubts about whether Texas' 'One Tough Grandma' cares more about Texas or her own political ambitions:

Rylander wasn't on the road to Damascus when she was blinded by the light. Instead, her lightning-quick conversion from liberal Democrat to conservative Republican was propelled by pure ambition. After her term as mayor, the only step up was running for Congress. And the fast-talking Rylander didn't want to wait until longtime U.S. Rep. Jake Pickle felt like quitting. So in 1985, just one year after working on the steering committee for Democratic presidential nominee Walter Mondale, Rylander joined the GOP. It was a bold political move that left many of her longtime Democratic backers in Austin seething. "Her supporters felt betrayed, attacked. Their rhetoric against her became very extreme," says Travis County Attorney Ken Oden, himself a veteran of many partisan fights. After the switch, Rylander, says Oden, "got a new set of friends." And while that may have been personally painful, the political payoff was substantial. "The race against Jake vaulted her career over those who had been active in GOP circles for decades," says Oden.

Vintage Chameleon Carole. Her political career is easily likened to the stereotypical wealthy suburban houswife who goes through a divorce, gets a new set of friends, joins a new church, becomes the beneficiary of her husband's new money, gets another divorce, gets remarried, and then gets new friends, a new church and new money.

Except (and in spite of the four names) her divorces were from political parties. She divorced the Democrats, and now has divorced the Republicans, although it's clear that divorce is far from finalized given she still has the affiliation on some of her campaign commercials.

So, is it a lapse of memory for 'One Tough Grandma' or simply the blind ambition of a political chameleon who would eat their young (if they weren't serving in the Bush administration) to get ahead?

I'll say it's the latter, but maybe a dose of the former. So, calm on down, 'Grandma,' and just sit in your rocker a spell, hon. There's not anyone in Texas who doesn't know what you're doing. Just take a memory pill and keep takin' those pot shots at Rick Perry. You'll help the real Democrats by doing so and it will all be all right come November.

All right for Texas, that is. Because a real Democrat will be in the governor's mansion (hopefully). Either way, you'll be out of state government for good and looking for your next political fix.

Rashad Jafer...

By Vince Leibowitz

While reading all the stories about Felix Alvarado being off the ballot, I noticed that a number of bloggers were mentioning Rashad Jafer, but evidently didn't realize he had a website. I didn't realize this until a few days ago, either, but he does, and it's Rashad for Texas.

And, though it's doubtful Jafer could force a runoff, for what it's worth, here's some information from the site on the 'new' Third Man in the Democratic Primary for Governor:

Rashad Jafer was born in Pakistan on September 11, 1961. He got his bachelors degree from the University of Karachi in microbiology. Rashad is married and has two sons ages 10 and 11.

After migrating to the United States in 1981, Rashad picked retail as a career and has since been in that field in different capacities. He is currently employed at a major retail store chain as a manager.

He has been in Houston, Texas since 1982.

Juan Garcia Campaign Kick Off

By Damon McCullar

Juan Garcia kicks off his campaign next Thursday at 4pm at the Selena Auditorium. Joining him in kicking off his campaign will be Gen. Wesley Clark (Ret.), former presidential candidate.

Juan Garcia is a second generation Naval aviator with multiple deployments to the Persian Gulf. Garcia graduated with honors from UCLA, where he gave the 1988 commencement address. He earned his law degree from Harvard and his master's degree in public policy from Harvard's John F. Kennedy School of Government.

After completing his naval officer and flight training, Garcia received his "Wings of Gold" at Naval Air Station Corpus Christi. Lieutenant Commander Garcia flew 30 armed missions in the Persian Gulf, including an emergency landing in a sandstorm, served as a top aide to the deputy Commander in Chief of U.S. Naval Forces in Europe, and served in Operation Allied Force in Kosovo. He served on the aircraft carrier USS Constellation in support of the enforcement of the no-fly zone in Iraq. His military awards include the Joint Commendation Medal, the Naval Commendation Medal,and the Naval Achievement Medal.

A practicing lawyer, Garcia has chaired the Board of Citizens for
Educational Excellence, serves on the Board of Governors for Leadership Corpus Christi, the Dr. Hector P. Garcia Memorial Foundation, the Corpus Christi Barrios Association, the Surfrider Environmental Group, received certification as a legal volunteer at the Corpus Christi Women's Shelter, and an on-air host for the area's PBS television affiliate.

Juan Garcia is currently running for the Texas House of Representatives in District 32 against

New Numbers for Governors

By Karl-Thomas Musselman

Zogby Interactive Polling via Greg's Opinion...

Perry (R) - 38.3%
Strayhorn (I) - 20.5%
Bell (D) - 17.9%
Friedman (I) - 14.4%

Perry (R) - 38.6%
Strayhorn (I) - 21.3%
Gammage (D) - 15.3%
Friedman (I) - 15.7%

And two sets that are pointless because filing is over, but do give us a baseline.

Perry (R) - 39.0%
Strayhorn (I) - 20.3%
Turner (D) - 15.7%
Friedman (I) - 16.6%

Perry (R) - 38.9%
Strayhorn (I) - 21.6%
Sanchez (D) - 15.3%
Friedman (I) - 16.2%

Greg doesn't have a linked source yet, but we can assume that the margin of error is the usual 3-4% points. That said, Perry is steady at 39% regardless of the Democratic nominee, and Strayhorn stays in second at 21% more or less. The only variance, and this is quite within the margin of error is that Bell a couple points away from Kinky. Certainly not the 'more electable' argument that Greg pushed in his comment thread though probably due to having run for a year.

My concern is actually that Bell has been running for a year, and the only difference he makes relative to Gammage or anyone else is 2.5% points. In either case, they are both stuck in the mid-teens with Kinky. The bigger issue is trying to get Democrats to realize that if they abandoned Kinky (who has no formula for winning now) and stopping betting on OTG, they could actually have a shot at winning down the road. While I feel this will happen once we actually have a nominee, there is little to be read from this poll, other than that Bell hasn't proved much of anything in the past year and he's far from being able to claim he's 'more electable' than anyone else.

But that's not all! Fav/Unfav numbers below the fold!

WOAI has a SUSA poll (not well done because it doesn't separate out any partisan numbers) about the favorable/unfavorable for every candidate running for Governor, right on down to the oddballs. Error plus/minus 4.5%, 499 registered voters.

(R) Rick Perry
42% Favorable
37% Unfavorable
18% Neutral
3% Unfamiliar

(I) Carol Keeton Strayhorn
40% Favorable
19% Unfavorable
22% Neutral
19% Unfamiliar

(I) "Kinky" Friedman
21% Favorable
22% Unfavorable
20% Neutral
37% Unfamiliar

(D) Felix Alvarado
8% Favorable
7% Unfavorable
14% Neutral
70% Unfamiliar

(D) Chris Bell
6% Favorable
14% Unfavorable
13% Neutral
67% Unfamiliar

(D) Bob Gammage
3% Favorable
11% Unfavorable
16% Neutral
70% Unfamiliar

(D) Rashad Jafer
5% Favorable
11% Unfavorable
12% Neutral
73% Unfamiliar

(R) Larry Kilgore
9% Favorable
8% Unfavorable
18% Neutral
64% Unfamiliar

(R) Rhett Smith
3% Favorable
8% Unfavorable
20% Neutral
69% Unfamiliar

I've bolded the important numbers. Perry, Strayhorn, and Kinky's Fav/Unfav numbers are actually useful because enough people know who they are to make an opinion. And it's good to see that people don't like Perry.

But looking to our Democratic challengers, the only numbers that really show us anything are the 'unfamiliar' numbers. (One problem with this type of poll is that the few people who do know unknown candidates, are partisans, and I would suspect that the higher negatives on the Dems are Republican just opposing them because they know what party they are and vice versa for Kilgore, Smith, etc.) Once again, after a year of campaigning, only 3% more people have a clue as to who Democrat Chris Bell is compared to Democrat Bob Gammage, who entered the race in December. It may not be much, but I'm not going to buy any 'name ID, campaigned for a year, best chance to win' arguments from the Bell camp based on numbers like that.

It's a tough road ahead, no kidding. But seeing that, even Bell's improved fundraising numbers might have one singing 'That Don't Impress Me Much'. No wonder Team Bell has bothered to go on the attack against Gammage. More on that tomorrow...

Oh, and Senate numbers as well.

(R) KBH - 56.9%
(D) Radnofsky - 31.8%

You're A Good Man Andy Brown

By Katie Naranjo

After block walking for months, an amazing special election, and rolling with the punches Andy Brown is supporting Donna Howard politically and financially for the run-off. After talking to many of his supporters, and gaining their approval, Brown is contributing to Howard’s campaign.

During the special election Andy also used funds to send out over 4,000 pieces of direct mail reminding voters about the election on Jan. 17th. Although he wasn’t running in the special he attended the CADW meeting and proved to be a class act. One thing is for sure…if Andy does run he will again prove to be a goodman.

What's going on at the Bell Campaign?

By Katie Naranjo

Money, endorsements, and travel has kept this Harris county native busy as the primary nears. Looking at the TEC reports Bell is looking ahead of the game with his $500,000 in the bank, compared to the Gammage team’s $60,000 banked. Bell is also riding high on some recent endorsements, mainly endorsements coming from pro-choice advocates. Bell seems to be building up mojo for the primary on
Mar.7th after his streams of high profile endorsements and a powerful speech at the SDEC meeting in Galveston.

Another interesting step in grassroots campaigning...Bell has started a student webpage so college and high school students can get involved with the campaign. The site called The Student Union, allows students to request Bell speaking appearances, literature, and information about the campaign. Check it out students.

Bell is also planning a press conference in front of the Alamo in San Antonio due to a major increase of support from the San Antonio area. The press conference is tomorrow Friday Jan. 20th at noon to celebrate new endorsements from the area. Bell is also scheduled to travel throughout the Valley area in the upcoming weeks due to his support in the Hispanic community.

Side Note: The Bell campaign has raised over 70,000 just from the website donation page. The traditional campaign methods are changing. That's about all folks...will post more as it comes.

Greet Rep. Barton's Lobby Train

By Karl-Thomas Musselman

Republican Texas Congressman Joe Barton (whose website tag still has him campaigning for the 2004 election) is planning a little train ride from Fort Worth to San Antonio. A normal ticket costs $149 a person, but if you'd like to be a member of the Culture of Cronyism, you can pay $2000-$5000 and play some Texas Hold 'Em along the way.

Democrat David Harris has a great post in response to that. And even better, now has info on where you can go to give Barton and his financiers a send off!

So join them this Friday (tomorrow) and greet Barton and his lobbyist passengers at the Santa Fe Railroad station, 1101 Jones Street, Fort Worth, TX (map) from 3:00-4:15 PM and give Joe a great Texas send off! The Harris campaign invites you to carry signs reminding him, he was elected to represent the district, not special interests.

Craddick Handing Out Candy To Opposed GOP Members

By Vince Leibowitz

I rarely read the Texas Insider because it almost always seems out of date or difficult to find anything aside from mundane press releases, but I surfed over there this evening and, to my surprise, what did I discover but that Speaker Tom Craddick (R-Midland) is handing out goodies to the GOP faithful in contested primaries.

I'm referring to Craddick's appointment of Rep. Dan Flynn (R-Van) to the Sunset Advisory Commission.

Keep in mind Flynn is one of several Republicans ushered into the House in the 2002 election cycle via millions in funding from Texans for a Republican Majority and the Texas Association of Business. He's also named in the indictment of Tom DeLay, John Colyandro, and Jim Ellis because he received RNC/TRMPAC funds as well as being named in the Robold/Colyandro/Ellis indictments that also included various corporations.

So, of course, when the GOP sees that he has a primary opponent who, in spite of not having a website, very few signs I've seen, etc., they get scared as heck and name their man to the Sunset Advisory Commission.

Chuck Tull (R-Edgewood), Flynn's opponent, is a candidate with a Democratic primary voting history through the 2004 election cycle reportedly talked into running as a Republican by various education PACS. Nevertheless, (and regardless of what special assignments Craddick throws his way), Flynn is pretty much a hands-down winner in the HD2 GOP Primary, period. End of story. The primary voters in Hunt and Van Zandt Counties are made up of far, far too many of the GOP Faithful for Tull to have a shot. Given the area he is from and his background, Tull would have had a better shot going head-to-head with Flynn as a Democrat in a general election contest.

Rider Out of March Primary

By Karl-Thomas Musselman

From the Statesman, Kathy Rider will be pulling out of the March Primary in District 48. (Even if Howard wins, there would still in theory be a primary, though the three candidates have agreed that if one won the special election, the others would not contest them in the primary).

Political consultant and lobbyist Bill Miller, a close ally of some Republican leaders, described the results as an upset because the seat was drawn in 2001 to elect a Republican. He said it could signal that good times are ahead for other Texas Democrats as they try to pick up seats in a Republican-controlled Legislature this year.

"She still has to win, and you have a runoff," Miller said. "But it's a big warning to Republicans to take a look at the issues that are surfacing in this race and how they play with the electorate."

The winner will serve for the rest of 2006, including at least one special legislative session this spring to address the state's school finance system. Baxter resigned in November, citing professional and family reasons, and now lobbies for the cable industry.

Rider said she will drop out of the March Democratic primary to see who will face Bentzin in November for a new term that will start in January 2007.

"I think the Democrats are going to take the seat in the runoff, and we're pleased," Rider said.

I'll be the first to thank Kathy Rider for her previous service to the AISD and for helping to show that Democrats can solidly perform in District 48 (and for being gracious in defeat). No one could have predicted that her campaign more or less kept Donna Howard from winning outright tonight, even though after the fact, that does appear to be the case.

This now puts candidate Andy Brown in a bit of a pickle, because if Donna wins the run-off, his campaign doesn't need to restart, but no real decision can be made until a month from now when that election is over. I'm willing to bet there will be pressure, now that Rider is out, to urge Brown to fully endorse Howard in the run-off. We should hear from that camp in the next couple days. Check back with Burnt Orange Report for any updates. Also thanks to the Texas Whip for their reporting.

District 48 Election Results Thread

By Karl-Thomas Musselman

Early Results are in for tonight's special election here in Travis County. I'm at the Donna Howard Victory Party at Waterloo Icehouse, where the candidate has just arrived.

Results (SOS):

(R) Ben Bentzin // 2,088 // 45.76%
(L) Ben Easton // 99 // 2.17%
(D) Donna Howard // 1,825 // 40.00%
(D) Kathy Rider // 551 // 12.08%

Overal Turnout: 4.64% (EV)

The important thing to note, Democrats have 52% of the vote total right now, and you can make your own conclusions about what that would mean if Kathy Rider was not in this race. I expect the numbers to improve from here as the night goes on, though these early numbers are already better than expected. If Howard comes in with more votes than Bentzin, she is well placed to win what seems to be a likely run-off. But anything could happen.

Update:

Travis County Results when they come in will be here, along with precinct by precinct.

The two precincts with over 10% turnout are being won by Howard with 53% and 57% of the vote. Bentzin is only at 36% and 30% in those precincts.

Update:

In the early vote, Bentzin is winning only winning 13 of 39 Precincts with over 50%. Rider's ceiling is 20% in any one given precinct. Looking at the 10 Western Travis County Precints (the 370s) which Bentzin won outright, the turnout is below average, some precincts below 1%, most below 3%.

Update: 14 of 39 Precincts Reporting

New Cumulative:

(R) Bentzin: 40.4%
(L) Easton: 2.13%
(D) Howard: 45.8%
(D) Rider: 11.7%

Election Day Only:

(R) Bentzin: 31.3%
(L) Easton: 2.1%
(D) Howard: 55.7%
(D) Rider: 11.0%

Update:

New Cumulative:

(R) Bentzin: 37.5%
(L) Easton: 2.1%
(D) Howard: 49.15%
(D) Rider: 11.3%

Final Results

(R) Bentzin: 37.8%
(L) Easton: 2.3%
(D) Howard: 49.47%
(D) Rider: 10.45%

Howard was 73 votes off of avoiding a run-off. 59.92% is the combined Democratic Vote. Needless to say, Howard is in a very good position to win a run-off as most people were expecting to Bentzin to have around 48%-49% of the vote tonight, not 38%. Now all Howard has to do is consolidate the Democratic vote columns, making sure not to lose too many voters from the 14% turnout tonight which is sure to drop in the run-off, likely to be set in mid-February.

Precincts won by 50%+ (of 39 total precincts).

Howard: 20
Bentzin: 6
Rider: 0
Easton: 0

Election Day in HD 48

By Karl-Thomas Musselman

It's the first day of school for students at UT, and it's Election Day in House District 48, which includes some Far West student precints. So students heading in and out of classes, and everyone else that lives or knows someone out in the District, be sure to vote today for Donna Howard (or Kathy Rider) in your home precinct. A list of precinct locations can be found here. If you need to check which precinct you are in, you can look that up online here.

Remember, if Ben Bentzin is kept under 50%, it will force a February run-off, and it's my bet that he's going to be within 1-2% of that mark either way. Should Bentzin win today, he becomes the State Rep through November, and gets to cast pro-voucher, Baxter-esque votes during this spring's special session(s).

And just think about where Bentzin's money is coming from...

Texans for Lawsuit Reform: $20,000
Bob [the swift boat guy] Perry: $10,000
HillCo PAC: $10,000
Mike Toomey: $1000

Update: Texan: More than 4,500 early voters have already cast their ballot to find a replacement for Todd Baxter's vacated northwest Austin state representative seat, according to Travis County voting records released Friday. (For comparison, 68,663 votes were cast in the 2004 general between White and Baxter.)

Results will be here tonight. I may try to make it to one of the victory parties to report on results as they come in this evening, sometime after 7pm.

Update 2: Is anyone going to the Donna Howard Victory Party at 7 up at Waterloo Icehouse at 6023 N Capital of Texas Hwy? Want to give me a ride? E-mail or call me.

Ellen Cohen Kickoff Party In Houston

By Matt Hardigree

I've never met Ellen Cohen, but just looking at her list of accomplishments I think... wow... she seems like a cool lady. So I'm going to actually try and meet her at her campaign kick-off party. Plus, Houston's sportscaster Lisa Malosky is going to be there. Which is pretty cool, huh?

For those who don't know, she's challenging everyone's favorite incumbent Martha Wong in HD134. And by everyone's favorite, I mean everyone who is afraid of gays getting married.

More details here, but below is all you need to know:

Campaign Kick-Off
Thursday, January 19, 2006
6:00 pm to 8:00 pm
4950 Bissonnet, Suite 100
Bellaire, Texas 77401

Entertaining Snips From Part I of Perry Interview

By Vince Leibowitz

The Midland Reporter-Telgram has published the first of two parts of an interview with Gov. Goodhair. After a read-through, I found these statements which I think are especially entertaining:

My favorite one actually comes from the end of the interview:

Perry would support 2007 legislative consideration of schools' teaching "intelligent design" alongside evolution. "I think it's wise for kids to have differing theories to think about," he said.

"I wouldn't have a problem in the world with my kids, if they went to public schools, being exposed to that debate. I think it would be good for the whole country."

Um, Rick, don't you think, as Texas Governor, you might should select your words a little more carefully? I mean, you're the guy "in charge," right? You're the one working to help public schools, right? Well, I mean, trip to the Bahamas with Grover Norquist and James Leininger aside, that is. I couldn't find, via Google, where the Perry's kids go to school, but, based on his statement above (which could be interpreted as "my kids are too good for the Texas public schools I've helped screw up," I'm betting they go to private institutions, at least, if they're still under college-age, and I think at least one is.

Here's another lovely excerpt:

"The toughest part of my job is not about me, it's about my family and the pressures of being the son of the governor, the daughter of the governor or for that matter the wife of the governor. When they see their father or husband being attacked, that's tough on them.

"You know, some vicious rumor comes out and that's hard on family. I'm a big guy. I'm pretty tough skinned because I've been doing this for 20 years. Protesters are like opposing football players who say, 'We're going to do X, Y and Z and these guys aren't going to be a speed bump.'

"And the coach cuts that out and puts it on the bulletin board. That's how I look at folks who attack me or my programs. They just energize me."

Yeah, governing's a bitch, ain't it? Of course, when you've got to worry everything from the media scrutinizing your Bahamas trips, your money from Bob Perry and, of course, let's not forget this entertaining tidbit, I'm sure dinner-table conversation at the Governor's Mansion is quite...entertaining. I mean, heck, it's not every Governor that is notorious/infamous enough to garner so many opponents a blog is needed to track "the world" against him.

A Train Ride With Smokey Joe?

By Vince Leibowitz

'Smokey Joe' Barton is hoping some of his big-money backers will take a train ride with him next weekend—literally.

In his Dallas Morning News column this week, Todd Gillman notes that Barton's campaign has a special seven-hour private train ride scheduled next Friday to go from Fort Worth to San Antonio:

"During the ride, we'll have lots of time to talk, play some Texas Hold 'Em, and enjoy some great down home Texas food," reads the glossy, six-panel invitation to "Joe Barton's 2006 Texas Train Ride." "This is about as good as it gets."

In San Antonio, donors will have brunch Saturday with the Ennis Republican, chairman of the powerful Energy and Commerce Committee and – since former Majority Leader Tom DeLay's fall from grace – the top-ranking Texan in the House. He and his guests will also have cocktails, an evening tour of the Alamo, dinner and breakfast on Sunday.

Of course, Craig McDonald with Texans for Public Justice and Tom Smith of Texas Public Citizen offered up their views on the railroading, no pun intended (and pun intended, I guess).

No doubt this will give David Harris, Barton's opponent in CD-06, some more ammunition. To give Harris some more ammunition, you can contribute here via his website or here, via his Act Blue page. Harris was featured on Daily Kos a while back for "Fighting Dem Tuesday."

There is also a blog for the race, the Dixtrict Sixer Blog. Other race links: Harris's DKos Diary.

More Bad News For Tom DeLay: People Don't Want To Vote For Him

By Vince Leibowitz

Only half of voters who voted for Tom DeLay in 2004 will do so again, according to a Houston Chronicle poll by Richard Murray and Bob Stein:

Only half of those who cast ballots for DeLay in 2004 said they will do so again. And while a fourth of the 2004 DeLay voters still aren't sure whom they will vote for this year, almost 20 percent have defected to other candidates.

Responding to the poll Saturday, DeLay spokeswoman Shannon Flaherty said the result is "contrary to the strong support we're seeing for Congressman DeLay throughout the district."

The telephone poll of 560 registered voters in the 22nd Congressional District was conducted Tuesday through Thursday.

Of course, the decline in DeLay support is due to his being indicted, the fact that he's been tainted by the Abramoff scandal, and various and sundry other accusations of corruption.

However, the Chron notes:

DeLay may be able to win back the undecided voters, but he starts with the disadvantage of a 60 percent unfavorable rating in the district he has represented for 20 years. Only 28 percent view him favorably, according to the poll.

That's barely half of the 50 percent favorable rating DeLay received in a poll conducted for the Chronicle last spring by Zogby International.

"I go a lot on the way somebody talks, and he doesn't give me warm and fuzzy feelings," said Robert Jones of Pearland, who has supported DeLay but rated him unfavorably in the Chronicle survey last week. Jones, who voted in the 2004 Republican primary and considers himself an independent, said he hasn't decided whom he will support this year.

According to the new poll, 38 percent have changed their opinion of DeLay in the past year. And of those, 91 percent view him less favorably.

Only about half of likely GOP primary voters now rate DeLay favorably, and only 39 percent are committed to voting for him in March.

When he last faced Republican primary opposition in 2002, he won 80 percent of the vote.

DeLay's opponent, attorney Michael Fjetland, is one of three candidates challenging him for the GOP nomination March 7. The others are former schoolteacher Pat Baig and attorney Tom Campbell.

And, on an even more interesting note:

So far, the lukewarm support for DeLay among likely primary voters is not benefiting his Republican opponents, who together poll less than 10 percent with the rest undecided.

"DeLay is benefited by a short campaign season because his challengers are unknown," Murray said.

There's no evidence that DeLay's dwindling support represents a tarnishing of GOP strength in the 22nd District.

Forty-two percent identify themselves as Republicans, 27 percent as Democrats and 23 percent as independents. Republican President Bush enjoys a 55 percent approval rating in the district.

Stein and Murray said DeLay is likely to win the Republican primary but not unscathed.

In the general election, he would face former U.S. Rep Nick Lampson, who is unopposed in the Democratic primary and polls highest among the probable November candidates. DeLay also may be challenged by former Republican Rep. Steve Stockman, who has filed as an independent. Stockman will need to petition for a place on the ballot.

If the general election were held today, DeLay would get 22 percent of the vote, Lampson 30 percent and Stockman 11 percent. The ballot also will include a Libertarian Party nominee.

Kuff has more on this, along with newish blog, DeLay vs. World, which actually has two pieces.

Given these good numbers, now would be a great time to contribute to Nick Lampson, which you can do here. You can also check o