Burnt Orange Report

More Bad News For Tom DeLay: People Don't Want To Vote For Him

By Vince Leibowitz

Only half of voters who voted for Tom DeLay in 2004 will do so again, according to a Houston Chronicle poll by Richard Murray and Bob Stein:

Only half of those who cast ballots for DeLay in 2004 said they will do so again. And while a fourth of the 2004 DeLay voters still aren't sure whom they will vote for this year, almost 20 percent have defected to other candidates.

Responding to the poll Saturday, DeLay spokeswoman Shannon Flaherty said the result is "contrary to the strong support we're seeing for Congressman DeLay throughout the district."

The telephone poll of 560 registered voters in the 22nd Congressional District was conducted Tuesday through Thursday.

Of course, the decline in DeLay support is due to his being indicted, the fact that he's been tainted by the Abramoff scandal, and various and sundry other accusations of corruption.

However, the Chron notes:

DeLay may be able to win back the undecided voters, but he starts with the disadvantage of a 60 percent unfavorable rating in the district he has represented for 20 years. Only 28 percent view him favorably, according to the poll.

That's barely half of the 50 percent favorable rating DeLay received in a poll conducted for the Chronicle last spring by Zogby International.

"I go a lot on the way somebody talks, and he doesn't give me warm and fuzzy feelings," said Robert Jones of Pearland, who has supported DeLay but rated him unfavorably in the Chronicle survey last week. Jones, who voted in the 2004 Republican primary and considers himself an independent, said he hasn't decided whom he will support this year.

According to the new poll, 38 percent have changed their opinion of DeLay in the past year. And of those, 91 percent view him less favorably.

Only about half of likely GOP primary voters now rate DeLay favorably, and only 39 percent are committed to voting for him in March.

When he last faced Republican primary opposition in 2002, he won 80 percent of the vote.

DeLay's opponent, attorney Michael Fjetland, is one of three candidates challenging him for the GOP nomination March 7. The others are former schoolteacher Pat Baig and attorney Tom Campbell.

And, on an even more interesting note:

So far, the lukewarm support for DeLay among likely primary voters is not benefiting his Republican opponents, who together poll less than 10 percent with the rest undecided.

"DeLay is benefited by a short campaign season because his challengers are unknown," Murray said.

There's no evidence that DeLay's dwindling support represents a tarnishing of GOP strength in the 22nd District.

Forty-two percent identify themselves as Republicans, 27 percent as Democrats and 23 percent as independents. Republican President Bush enjoys a 55 percent approval rating in the district.

Stein and Murray said DeLay is likely to win the Republican primary but not unscathed.

In the general election, he would face former U.S. Rep Nick Lampson, who is unopposed in the Democratic primary and polls highest among the probable November candidates. DeLay also may be challenged by former Republican Rep. Steve Stockman, who has filed as an independent. Stockman will need to petition for a place on the ballot.

If the general election were held today, DeLay would get 22 percent of the vote, Lampson 30 percent and Stockman 11 percent. The ballot also will include a Libertarian Party nominee.

Kuff has more on this, along with newish blog, DeLay vs. World, which actually has two pieces.

Given these good numbers, now would be a great time to contribute to Nick Lampson, which you can do here. You can also check out Lampson's diaries on DailyKos and MyDD, or via the Lampson for Congress Blog, which is currently down but expected to be up again soon.