December 30, 2005
One Tough Independent Grandma, More Rumors Are Flying **UPDATE**
By Damon McCullar
Today, via QR:
Campaign says she is a Republican
Rumors are careening around Austin with increasing conviction that Comptroller Carole Keeton Strayhorn has decided to run for Governor as an independent.
One rumor is that the Strayhorn Campaign had contacted the Secretary of State's office to verify that it would be open Monday to receive her notice that she intends to run as an independent. However, spokesman Scott Haywood says that they have received numerous inquiries about Monday, but most callers do not identify themselves.
For the record, the Secretary of State's office will be open Monday.
Update 4:13pm
Apparently there are rumor flying around that One Tough Grandma is considering running for Lite Gov as well. Monday is the deadline. We will know then.
Posted by Damon McCullar at December 30, 2005 01:55 PM
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Evidently there are rumors she's considering Lt. Gov. too??
Geez, gotta luv Texas politics. It's not like a sausage maker, it's like a margarita machine.
Sammy and Bob on KVET talked all morning about Carole many names running for Gov. as an Indy. Does this not kill any chance of Perry losing?
There would be a four-way ballot for Gov. Perry, Kinky, Many names, and the Dem Nominee?
This November the anti Perry forces will divide up amongst the other three. With all the straight ticket voting in the big counties its impossible for Many Names to even beat Kinky?
How far the blindly ambitious have fallen? Her personal need for the spotlight kills any real chance of any real competitive campaign this fall.
This news has got to be a death knell to Chris and Bob they have no chance to build a winning coalition.
Where am I wrong?
Hamiltonfan, one way in which this could be bad news for Perry is that Strayhorn (as an independent) may draw enough GOP voters away from Perry so as to allow the Democrat to squeak in with just a little over 40% of the vote in the general election (unless I'm mistaken, the top vote-getter in the general wins, with no runoffs). The assumption here is that Strayhorn would draw in GOP voters who would never consider voting for a Democrat (maybe 15% of the electorate), but who are disgruntled with Perry, in a situation not unlike that faced by George H.W. Bush when Perot showed up on the presidential ballot in 1992. This also assumes that Kinky is either not on the ballot or is a nonentity in the final voting.
In other words, lots of maybes, assumptions and conjectures, admittedly. However, that is what amateur punditry is all about, and you asked for a scenario in which a Strayhorn independent run is bad for Perry...
You make a good point but 15% would be wishful thinking, cross over voting is about three to one in Texas, which is for every republican voting for a democrat three dems vote for the rep. I think two independents make the math very hard for anyone but Perry to reach 40% and Perry will most likely get over 50% cause Reps. will shy away from Carole’s crazy antics. Those voters are very loyal look how they supported Bob Dole all the way off the cliff.
Even this morning Carole’s folks were quoted in the SAEN saying they would not support her in an Indy run. How ever you slice it, Monday will be Black Monday for Bell and/or Gammage. Money will be harder to raise since who will give to a guy who has no shot? Ask the guy who walked against Bush in 1998? And cross over endorsements will be impossible, and all the media attention will be divided amongst four candidates instead of just two. Just my thoughts.
