Burnt Orange Report

Honestly Damon, I think anyone , and especially those that are not big blog readers, would be shocked quite honestly to learn that Kinky was taking 18% in the polls. And considering that this Zogby Interactive poll is questionable at best and probably not the most accurate considering Bell's name ID isn't as high as eiher of the other polled (would love to have seen them release those numbers), I wouldn't get too hot and bothered about devining poll trends quite yet. Or else you'll be forcing me to remind me that Alvardo was outpolling Bell in the last serious Texas specific poll done...

An important thing to remember as well, is that in all three of these cited elections, it was the Republican who went on to victory. Part of the numbers may tell where the incumbant may end up on eleciton day, but assuming Kinky gets on the ballot and Bell wins his primary, Perry can still win with his 40% of the vote if the remainder stays split the way it is. One of the other has to define themselves as the anti-perry, and that will take time to determine who's most successful at that.

Wow. Three polls out of how many polls were conducted in these races and suddenly Chris Bell is the next governor of Texas? Delusional at best.

Without doubt Perry is vulnerable. But he will win the primary because Strayhorn simply is too "liberal" for some and because she has supported the idea of a state income tax which is a big taboo in the Texas Republican Party.

Add to this the reality that Tom De Lay is about to learn a political lesson which is that sharks beome shark bait to the other sharks once injured. And that will guarantee a massive turnout by Republicans in Texas to vote AGAINST any opponent who threatens the solid Republican majority in Texas that De Lay, legally or illegally, provided them. Particularly Chris Bell. He will become public enemy number two. Ronnie Earle is already number one. Even among some Democrats.

The real question mark is Kinky Friedman. How many Democrats or Republicans at this point are going to throw their support behind an independent in a pre-primary poll? Did all these polls include an equal number of independents to juxtapose against both Republican and Democratic voters?

The only numbers associated with polls that really matter are the number of actual votes cast at them.

I wonder what the polls predicted about the Bush-Clinton-Perot race? Those might be more relevant to a possible Perry-Bell-Friedman race.

KT,

Concerning Zogby's, a friend of mine and yours in Houston put it this way:

"The whole "interactive" criticism is a bit out of touch, I think. Zogby's been leading the push for making their online polling as precise as
possible and from the looks of every other race they've got on the charts, they look in line with every other style of poll.

Basically, as traditional polling misses those likely voters who either don't respond via land lines ... or don't possess land lines, the
traditional polling methodology is going to slip over time. Doesn't mean there aren't speed bumps for the Zogbys and other online imitators, but
they're at least compensating for the current road work in front of 'em."

As far as Alvarado's numbers in the primary goes, his absolute basement is 20% as demonstrated in 1994. Look up the primary results in that race. There was a hispanic on the ballot that spent next to nothing on his campaign and still got 20%.

And to you BS, may the best man win. I have my horse, you have yours.

And I agree with Karl that the 18% Kinky Friedman has pretty consistently averaged in some of these polls would indicate he will become a formidable opponent for both the Democratic and Republican candidates.

No doubt both parties will try some legal shenanigans to keep him off the ballot. Which may finally get the message across about how Texas politics works to the "rank and file" which by the way are not solidly behind Chris Bell as some would like to believe or solidly behind Rick Perry.

I have heard several claim that Kinky Friedman could not possibly work with the legislature. What they really mean is he could not possibly work with the lobbyists who control our legislature. Because they would have to deal with a governor they hadn't bought.

Even in a backlash Kinky Friedman may pick up a significant number of Republican votes. They may simply vote along the lines of "Anyone But Bell" which is how some Democrats may vote as well.

You heard it here first folks, Zogby's a hack who can't poll seriously. Sure his '04 online presidential polls were off, but do you seriously think he's just sat back over the last year and not tweak it at all?

And go ahead remind us about Alvarado leading in the last poll, I'll remind you in was within the MOE, which- let's say it together guys- means it's a statistical toss-up.

I'll also remind you that, according to you, heavily Latino areas like to divide themself up by race and region...

"John Courage, after running 4 years ago, most recently ran for County Party Chair in Bexar county, but because of the way that Bexar County likes to divide itself up, by ethnicity and region, he did not succeed." - Karl-Thomas Musselman

http://www.burntorangereport.com/mt/archives/2005/06/courage_for_con.html

Now if I'm supposed to take that statement at face value, this means that, at the minimum, alot of respondents from Bexar County, and by extension South Texas, identified themselves as Alvarado supporters in the last Scripps Howard poll.

And come on, to think even for a second that Bell could pull at or below Mauro/Sanchez numbers (the 40 percent ceiling) is disingenuous at best.

I am going to sit this one out and wait for a parody from Hardigree...

I'm glad I don't have a horse in the race, just a crazy one eyed cat. Makes it a lot easier to not worry about believing twister games at the wooten are silly and kinky's advisors working for DeLay is just assinine.

And Cincinnatus, I agree that a number of people in the poll that are self ided hispanic would vote for Alvarado on name matching. But you should know quite well that happens in SA, and in courage's race, race had a part to play (as well as inside/outsider party dynamics and the number of people in the field).

The Sanchez 40 base/ceiling is probably now around 42%, and it true in a two way match up. But if this turns into a 3-way deal, then that's off the table. Some of those remaining white liberals will bleed off to Kinky (sooner than base Black or Brown precincts will) as well as some Perryites, and then those bizarre voters who show up at random during elections depending on the issue or person. That's what makes divining all of this so complicated, it's not a normal year. That should be of benefit to us, but it takes more thought.

BS, to answer your question about why I highlighted these 3 polls out of all the polls taken in those races, it was because these were the 1 public poll in each race published closest to this point in the election cycle. Certainly three polls isn't enough to support any concrete assumptions, but my point was more to draw comparisons between where Democrats are today vs. where we were at similar points 4, 8, and 12 years ago.

I certainly can't claim to have an objective viewpoint here, but my observation was that Chris is without question in a stronger position today than the previous 2 Democratic nominees were at this point in their respective campaigns. And going back to 1994, Rick Perry is certainly far weaker at this point than Ann Richards was en route to her eventual loss.

Certainly it's a big leap to go from there to "Chris is going to win!," but this far out from Election Day with so little to go on other than conjecture and prognistication, it's at the very least a positive sign that Rick Perry is far more beatable than the conventional wisdom has been willing to admit so far.

Beyond that... well, it's a long campaign and Lord knows anything can happen, but for right now, Democrats should be walking around with a little bit more of a swagger then they've been used to.

At this point everyone is parodying themselves, whether they know it or not. We're going to bitch about polls until November (and then we're going to bitch about why they're right and why they're wrong). Polls indicate where we were, candidates and citizens determine where we are going.

Matth:

Well put. This is all really academic. It's going to be up to the campaigns to develop a simple, resonant message and stay on that message until Nov. 2006. Polls right now won't mean jack if they can't do that.

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