Burnt Orange Report

yay!

Off topic but...

It’s Damon McCullar’s Birthday!!

Well, there's a few things that can happen.

1) Perry can just wait until November 2006, and leave the seat open. This assumes he won't call a special session. I think this is what will happen.

The other two scenarios are fun, and since there's not much going on, I'll expand on them. Both presume Perry would call a special session on school finance, which is highly unlikely because the Sharp committee won't have any recommendations until next fall (according to the Sharp interview). But, let's assume Baxter's explanation that he's resigning "because of the high probability of a special session" is valid (which I still think it isn't -- I think he's bolting b/c there's no way the R's could win the seat with the Delay scandal hanging around Baxter's neck).

2) Perry orders a special election immediately, like QR and the Baxter letter suggested (and I think this is the most unlikely of all three scenarios, but that's just my two cents). The special election would have to occur on the first uniform election date that occurred 36 days after the election order is issued...which, if Perry did that anytime in the next few months, would mean the March primary dates, making the HD 48 race an open primary. Baxter's replacement (Candidate R), would face off against whichever of the three Democratic primary opponents challenged him in the election. A runoff election between Candidate R and the highest Democratic vote-getter would occur in April, and that person would be the State Representative...until November 2006, when everything would happen again.

3) Scenario 3 would be that Perry calls a special session on school finance in May, thereby needing a special election that would pit Candidate R against the Democratic primary winner. Again, whoever won that seat would be State Rep for about six months, when the election just ran all over again.

Pretty crazy stuff. There's more scenarios, but they're all just slight variations of those three. I still say that Baxter just wanted to get the hell out of Dodge. Unless Perry calls a special session -- which is EXTREMELY unlikely -- this will all get sorted out in November. Still, given that everything's been real quiet in the past few weeks, this is at least something interesting we can yammer on about for a while.

Go' Stros! (my official sign-off for the next week and a half).

Go Stros! (how i start posts now)

Is the district as winable without the punching bag?

The district just got tougher for the Ds. Especially for Andy Brown, Todd's tie-in with TRMPAC and voting blindly with Craddick was what made up for his total lack of compelling personal story or professional resume. Donna and Kathy have a better chance in that they have credibility on school issues, and Bentzin is (or at least, was) for vouchers. Bentzin is a Perry guy, but can probably dance around that...don't forget that Bentzin performed at just about the Republican index in that district when he ran against Gonzo.

Harriet's law partner is right.

Ben Bentzin won HD 48 with 58% of the vote over Gonzo in 2002. Much, much tougher row to hoe.

And Perry can declare an emergency and call a January special election with a February Run-off. I've been told it doesn't have to be a uniform election date. But we'd probably need a lawyer out there to verify.

Unless there is a pending special session, the Texas Election Code states that the next election would come at the next uniform election date, which would be in March. The only exception is if there's to be a special session, or if it were an emergency election. Again, a special sesion is unlikely because (1) the Sharp committee isn't even named yet, and Perry is banking on them for direction/cover through most of the election season, and (2) if they called one, the Hochberg plan is the only plan that could gain enough votes to pass, and I don't imagine Perry wants to call a special just to hand a victory to the Democrats.

I'd find it highly unlikely that Perry would call an emergency election in January. It's not an emergency situation (unless he calls a special, which I can't see him doing). For him to call an emergency session for Baxter's seat while leaving HD 143 (Rep. Moreno's seat) open through two special sessions...

Well, he has the power, and he certainly knows how to abuse it...

Go 'Stros

Phillip, you need to get the facts straight...

The March primary is not a uniform election date. The uniform election dates are in February, May, September and November. (Election Code 41.001(a))

No other election, other than the primary, can be called for the March primary date. (Election Code 41.007(d)).

Elections requiring a majority vote, like this one, cannot be held on the February or September date. (Election Code 41.001(e)).

And, the Governor cannot leave the seat open until November 2006. (Election Code 203.004(a))

Just a suggestion: take a moment to read the law before posting. It would save you a lot of time and embarassment. Seriously.

We have Kelly White to thank for this. Her campaign correctly labeled Baxter as Tom DeLay's boy- his campaign is one of those DeLay's is accused of illegaly conspiring to launder money to. And she got so close to winning (losing by 147 out of 70,000 or so) that Baxter was mortally wounded politically. You can see this in the fact that he got zilch in committee assignments from Craddick in the 2005 legislature.

If Baxter had run again, the Democratic candidate would have done the same thing, with much more material. Andy Brown was already hitting Baxter on the DeLay connection, while Donna Howard looked like she was getting ready to do the same.

What I think has really happened is that Baxter was told by the Republican powers-that-be to step down so that they could get a better candidate, untarnished by DeLay.

So long, Toddy! And thank you Kelly!

I hate election law. Every time I find the right section, other parts pop up. Thanks for the corrections, as I happily admit my faults.

Go 'Stros.

Just a suggestion Mr. "read the law": How about you check your decorum before you sound off like a jackass?

Wow, you have a law student Lexis account. Very impressive.

Ummm, who is right and who is wrong? Almost every statement of fact he made about the Election Code was wrong, and therefore, his conclusions were also wrong.

I'm OK if people want to spin wild conspiracy theories, but if you're going to base them on the law, get the law right.

I guess I;m not too sure why you have such a hard time with dealing with the facts... Maybe you like Phillip's version of the Election Code better than the state's version?

Anyone think this will mean more Dems will jump into the race? Or drop out? How does this play out on the Dem side?

Well, if the Ds are smart, the reigning King Democrat, Kirk Watson, will gather everybody who wants to be a state representative from District 48 in a room and say "Guys, the special is your shot. The D who does the best is the nominee for the general election, and the rest of y'all need to bow out. We can't afford a contested special and a contested primary. 'Nuff said." Watson is probably the only one that can do it.

Seriously, I think it means the Ds need to seriously look at the costs of a contested primary in this seat. Now, it ain't near as winnable as Keel's seat, where Watson and Sharp won in 2002.

I seriously sorry for the overuse of sorry in my preceding comment...but everybody knows Locke Purnell Liddell Sapp Rain Harrell etc. never carried how well you could write...just how many big money Rs you could bring in the door.

Um, Kirk and Sharp won in District 48 in 2002, too, silly. And when a liberal Democrat woman with no political experience goes up against a right-of-center Republican male with a good deal of political experience and loses by a mere 147 votes, whereas no Democrat even sought to challenge Keel in 2004, I've got to wonder how you can see District 47 as moe winnable than District 48.

Both are winnable, though. I'm delighted by the very real possibility that Travis County might have an all-Dem legislative delegation in 2007.