Burnt Orange Report

Finally, a qualified candidate in this district.

Let's see. A former Eanes ISD board member who's been battle tested in a race for SBOE versus a former intern for Pete Laney who managed (for one month) Doggett's general election "campaign."

Who do you trust to bring the heat down on Baxter and to take the hit right back? My money's on Howard.

Andy Brown says he's a good Democrat. Let's see just how good a Democrat he is. Let's see if he's willing to put his ego aside and avoid a contested primary.

There's going to be a county commissioner's race in Travis county. How about Andy Brown for Commissioner. I'll write the first check.

It's disappointing that a twice-losing candidate like Donna Howard would jump into HD48 three months after Andy Brown announced. It's also a pity that two Democrats will have to spend a lot of money bloodying each other that should be earmarked for destroying Todd Baxter--though from the TEC report and what I've heard, Andy has raised $50,000+ without even having a fundraiser.

Pile on the lame justifications and excuses all you want, but the numbers don't lie:

http://www.capitol.state.tx.us/par_rpts/current/house/dist48/r8.htm

Notice Sharp's numbers. Then notice Kitchen's numbers. Then turn your attention to Donna's numbers.

How about Donna Howard for County Commissioner since she has no chance of beating Todd?

Uhh, dont try to fool us Spencer. Sure, numbers dont lie, but percentages sure can be deceiving. my question is, do you lie? or are you just deceiving?. The state board of eductation district donna howard was running in obvioulsy didnt encompass all of district 48 -- only a small portion. there were only 10,500 votes in her race, as opposed to the 47,500 or so voters that voted in the district. thats like comparing apples to dinosaurs. from the numbers you posted, you cannot tell if the ed. district howard was running is in the more conservative or more liberal portion of the district.

Will Andy Brown be as deceptive as you, Spencer? I hope not. I hope he is not aligned with you.

I live in the district, but dont know who i will be voting for. Not to mention the fact that folks are still filing, I still havent made up my mind who i will be voting for in the primary. NOT baxter, in the general, I know that much. I agree with Karl Thomas, i hope the primary doesnt get ugly. i would hate to have the jack ass baxter representing me again.

I live in the district 48: you're right, percentages can be deceiving. But instead of blasting me, why don't you go to the Travis county clerks election website and pull the numbers from 2002 like I just did? You'd find that the precincts in the southern part of the district that were in Donna Howards school board race were won by Sharp by about a 6 point margin and lost by Donna by about a 12 point margin. Specifically, precincts 300, 305, 307, 311, 313, 317, 322, 330, 347, and 364. Thats a pretty big swing, and I have to think that its a contested part of the district cause Sharp is winning it by a decent margin. In the end the numbers are roughly the same as Sharp's district wide numbers from my other post.

It looks even worse for Donna when you consider that this part of town is Donna's base and NOT Sharp's base. For instance, Westlake is 364 and Donna almost breaks even there, while Sharp wins by nearly 20 points. Donna loses Rollingwood by a couple points, Sharp wins by more than 13, etc.

So I don't know what the deal is with people in this part of town-maybe they like their candidates white, male, moderate, and professionals? Either way, Donna gave a pretty lackluster performance and I've gotta believe Andy could do better. What I really don't want is to see them beat each other up so Todd can coast to victory.

The irony is that for a person who would hate to see the primary get ugly, theres enough venom in your post to both poison your apple and kill your dino.

Everyone needs to stop being terrified of primary battles. If either of these candidates can't raise enough money in WESTLAKE to win a primary and general election battle, then neither has any business being in the race. You HAVE to prepare to spend tons of money in this race, because you know Baxter will have an absolutely endless supply of money on his half.

Also, I don't think either should bow out to clear the primary field. Primaries raise name ID like crazy, and let voters in the district become familiar with who will be running in November. With more education, more swing/moderate votes can come away from Baxter to the D candidate in the general.

Stop being terrified of primary battles. If either candidate is worried about a primary battle, then they've already lost. If someone's looking to get a free ride into the Texas Legislature, change parties. As Democrats, we need to make sure we get the right person for the job, so that we can help sway the district towards our side for many years to come.

Spencer,
Are you telling me that the best candidate should be WHITE? and MALE?

If you are by anyway related to the brown camp. Andy has lost my vote.

blah blah blah...run the candidate that can win...blah blah blah, but saying out loud he is the best candidate because he is white and male?

Thats disgusting.

Spencer, trying to draw a conclusion about Donna Howard based on the results of her downballot race in 2002 shows you to either be a political neophyte or someone who knows better and doesn't care about the truth.

Donna basically had no paid communications in 2002, something that will be much different next year.

I don't have a dog in this hunt but it seems clear from Andy's web site that he is the candidate of the West Austin establishment that ran Mandy Dealey against Ann Kitchen in 2000. Donna will represent the progressive community in Austin that supported Ann Kitchen in 2000. We'll see how the race turns out.

A few points for your consideration: State Board of Education districts 5 and 10 were designed to split Travis County in two ("crack" in redistricting parlance) and combine each of the two pieces with enough surrounding Republican turf ("stack") to make our Democratic voters irrlevant. SBOE districts are also about twice the size of a Senate District, and in 2002 Donna faced an incumbent. Her long-shot status and the low priority Democrats place on funding SBOE candidates gave her scant resources with which to campaign. Nonetheless, she was an attractive candidate with good credentials, and I for one am grateful to her for having made the effort.

2nd point: There aren't enough women in the legislature or in the Travis County delegation. At the start of the 72nd Legislature (1991), four out of five Travis County representatives were women: Sherri Greenberg, Wilhelmina Delco, Lena Guerrero and Libby Linebarger; today, we're one for six. Whatever you think of this situation -- and I think it sucks -- it will be a factor in the primary.

3rd: Ralph Yarborough lost four statewide races (attorney general and three gubernatorial campaigns) before winning three US Senate campaigns ('57, '58, and '64), so I guess you could have called our most progressive US Senator ever a "four-time loser," Spencer, and been correct, but so what? Gus Garcia lost two SBOE races and became one of Austin's most popular council members and mayors.

4th: According to the latest polls, the gender gap is roaring back among the general voting population. I think it's because women have a tendency to see more quickly through macho bullshit and understand its consequences. Even in '04 when Bush spooked a lot of women into voting for him, Kelly inspired some 2,000 Bush voters (mostly women, I assume) to vote for her. I predict even more of a gender gap this year because Republicans are proving to be dismal failures on one of the most important issues to moms: public education. Since married people are more likely to vote Republican than single people, I want someone with the strongest possible appeal to moms. All things being equal, I personally would rather go into battle in district 48 in '06 with a female candidate than with a male.

Of course, if Andy becomes the nominee, more power to him, but this is how I size up the situation: advantage Donna Howard.

Another couple things to consider:

1. There are now zero anglo Democratic women in the Legislature.

2. With Baxter's bad votes on education, who sets up the better contrast? A female former school board member? Or a white male lawyer whose bio is remarkably similar to Todd Baxter's? Lege staffer, law school, private firm, run for Lege...

Why is it that no Travis County Democrat has pointed out that Andy Brown worked for the Baker Botts law firm? The firm where James Baker, the best friend of the Bush family, is a senior partner. The law firm which represents Halliburton and the Carlyle Group. How has this escaped everyone's notice?

Robert:

This is not about good and bad; it's about who's best to beat Todd Baxter. I think it's Donna Howard, but Andy's a good guy. Andy works for B&B? Big deal. It means he's a good lawyer. I'll even add something nice about Jim Baker: he told W not to go into Iraq.

Peace out

Brown works for DLA Piper, not BakerBotts. You can drop the James Baker by association claim. Also, I am aware that people have been mulling the idea that a woman must run against Baxter in order to win HD 48. I hope she does better than White and Kitchen did. Sorry, but the arguments against Brown based on his race and sex are based on offensive stereotyping. This, in case you are curious, is the kind of nonsense identity politics which has helped drive the Texas Democratic Party into the state of torpor it currently enjoys. (Also, I think the "choice" resonates from a woman" argument is weak) Want to be vital again? Get over trying to pick a candidate based on sex; start looking at experience and credentials. Brown is a lawyer from a top tier law school who works at a well respected firm... and he's got campaigning experience. Some people would be impressed by that. Furthermore, I'm not sure how one can twist years of being a Legislative aide into a liability. Of course, the ultimate argument in favor of Brown (depsite the fact that he is intelligent and otherwise well qualified) is that he's been working the district for also three months. No prospective candidate has shown that kind of motivation, interest, or dedication. Talk is cheap and unconvincing. If anyone should check an ego, it's Howard. She should get behind Brown to help him win HD 48.

I noticed on the main posting here that there is an assumption of the voters of HD 48 acting rationally to eject Baxter based on the non-performace of the 79th Lege. Don't count on this. Yes, the dismal record of the 79th will be a liability, but Baxter is going to be on the attack in the general election. He (or more accurately, his handlers and campaign staff) will eat a candidate like Howard for breakfast. Furthermore, I think it should be obvious that 48 has been engineered to provide a severe handicap to candidates like Howard. Moreover, her experience and credentials are too narrow to match against Baxter. Winning a seat on the Eanes school board does not translate into appeal as a State Rep. While education is important, it is one amongst many which concernt the rather independant voters of HD 48 (a commonly acknowledged "swing district"). Also, White had a broad appeal because of her work with Safe Place. Howard has no such advantage (I don't think TFN and Austin Interfaith, both laudible organizations, are comparable).

While it is true that Brown has never campaigned before, he's got the right professional, political, and academic background for the race and for the Legislature. He's a litigator- basically a professional arguer. Thus, he's the kind of candidate who can stand up to Baxter as well as the GOP slime & lies machine. If it can be said that some hit below the belt, then please note that the Texas GOP will take a baseball bat to your family jewels and finish with the kneecaps for good measure. They are ruthless, vicious, and well funded by high dollar buinsess and ideological donors. Regardless of Baxter's poor performance in the House, it is utter folly to underestimate the campaign that will be waged by the GOP to retain HD 48.

Rip,

We get it. You're a shill for the Andy Brown campaign. "Brown is a good guy and more qualified than Donna Howard."

Brown will get to test his "professional arguer" skills in a primary. That's good. If he's so great he'll have no problem dispatching someone with such "narrow credentials."

As I said before, it's the West Austin establishment (Brown) versus the grassroots, progressive community (Howard). They do battle every March here in Austin. We'll see who wins.

Dear R.I.P.:

There's something more than just a tad preposterous about a man advising a woman that she should check her ego.

You boyz keep picking on Donna, and I might just have to take more than a casual interest in this race.

Fact check: the majority of Democratic primary voters are women. Advantage: Donna Howard.

Jobu, you can call me a shill if you'd like. I don't care, because I'm right out HD 48. I know it's hard being correct so often, but it's burden I've learned to live with. I've been watching HD 48 for months, long before Howard's name was mentioned. She is not the first candidate I've dismissed as being less than serious or less than competitive. What I, Rip Avery, want to see is Todd Baxter go down in flames. Show me someone who can do it and see who I support. I invite you to read my blog. At that point, you can decide whether I'm a Brown lackey or instead someone who is both genuinely impressed by Brown and genuinely wants to see Baxter lose. Also, HD 48 is more than just West Austin- it's also part of western Travis county. If you think Howard is going to outperform Baxter in these areas, I strongly disagree. This is a swing district, engineered by the 78th Lege so that candidates like Howard will lose. I think the help of the "West Austin establishment" would be quite beneficial to the success of a Democrat against Baxter in '06. That brings me to Mr. Stanley's point. Regardless of whether the majority of primary voters are women, our main concern is beating the GOP in the general election. Also, preposterous for a man to tell a female to check her ego. Aside from the sexism of that comment... well, maybe I hang out with the wrong kind of women, but many of the ladies I know are well endowed in the ego department.

I was going to let this one go, but I am still bothered by it: I don't mind being called a "shill," because it isn't true. However, it saddens me that the state of debate (not just here, but throughout American politics) sometimes sinks to this level. To wit: the use of ad hominen attacks against an author instead of fighting the points and assertations of his arguement with factual or analytical counterpoints. Eg: In my opinion, Andy Brown is a good guy and a good candidate. Instead of refuting this statement directly, some have chosen to insult me and/or impune my motivations as opposed to mounting a counter attack to the fairly detailed arguments I presented in this section. We are all familiar with this tactic; it is a page right from the RNC/Rove/Fox News playbook. Furthermore, I think it is reasonable to assume one can have a high opinion of Mr. Brown without being his shill or minion. As Democratics, we should rise above the ad hominem in order to debate vis a vis facts and issues.

Anyway, Jobu, like Mr. Stanley, mentions the primary fight. If Ms. Howard wins in the primary, it will be a phyrric victory come time for the general election. I will wager on this. If Howard wins in '06 (after beating Brown and then Baxter/fill in the GOP opponent), I'll do something vile and abhorrent to my nature like eating an over-cooked, low quality steak in lieu of a trip to one of my favorite steak houses.

-Rip

Jobu

Melissa Noreiga is white.

I know she has a unique situation, but she is an anglo.

You're right about Melissa. So let me say today, there are no elected female Anglo Democratic members in the Legislature.

In nine days (when Rick takes the seat back over), there will be no female Anglo Democratic members of the the Legislature.

This exchange between partisans is intriging, but futile. The fact remains that there are no anglo democratic women in the house and there should be somebody. Preferably more than one somebody. This Brown young man is a real go-getter and a professional pol. He will land on his feet. He will not beat Ms. Howard next year.
Demographics are not in his favor. Rarely is a democratic woman who has her act together beaten by a man these days in a majority female primary electorate.