With early voting a mere four days away and less than a month to go until primary day, Texas gubernatorial polls are coming out fast and furious. Here's an overview of some recent polling released in the past week. Note that nearly all were in the field entirely or largely before Medina's "9/11 Truther" flap on Glenn Beck yesterday.
Texas Republican Gubernatorial Primary
|
Texas Tribune
MoE 5.12%, Feb 1-7, 2010 |
| Perry | 45% |
| Hutchison | 21% |
| Medina | 19% |
| Undecided | 16% | |
PPP Polls
MoE 4.8%, Feb 4-7, 2010 |
| Perry | 39% |
| Hutchison | 28% |
| Medina | 24% |
| Undecided | 10% | |
While there's certainly some wiggle room here, overall the polls show Perry with a decent lead over Hutchison and Medina; however, with the incumbent failing to clear 50% in any of them a run-off seems likely. The big question remains who finishes second. As we've discussed lately, it's Medina who has seen the big momentum swing in her direction. It is unclear, however, if she has any more room to grow, or--as Phillip suggested yesterday--Perry and cronies have decided to take her out.
Texas Democratic Gubernatorial Primary
PPP Polls
MoE 4.9%, Feb 4-7, 2010 |
| White | 49% |
| Shami | 19% |
| Alvarado | 5% |
| Aguado | 2% |
| Glenn | 1% |
| Dear | 0% |
| Locke | 0% |
| Undecided | 24% | |
Texas Tribune
MoE 6%, Feb 1-7, 2010 |
| White | 50% |
| Shami | 11% |
| Other | 9% |
| Undecided | 30% | |
TCUL/POS
MoE 4.9%, Feb 3-6, 2010 |
| White | 51% |
| Shami | 19% |
| Alvarado | 7% |
| Aguado | 4% |
| Glenn | 0% |
| Dear | 1% |
| Locke | 1% |
| Undecided | 16% |
(PDF available in comments) |
Not to sound like too much of a "Poll"-yanna here, but I think White should be able to avoid the run-off. These polls were entirely conducted before the 2/8 debate in which Shami was resoundingly destroyed by White, when the voters got a real look at White's competency and skills. Furthermore, as White's TV ad continues in rotation and field campaigns crank up the output I think White should be able to avoid a run-off against Shami or any of the single-digit also-rans.
Update 3:51 PM: Added TCUL poll to Democratic numbers. |
