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Attention Democrats: Farouk Shami Can't Win In November


by: Karl-Thomas Musselman

Thu Feb 04, 2010 at 08:15 AM CST


It's not often that you get to see such screaming headlines like this, but it's an appropriate response to a press release from Farouk Shami's campaign sent out yesterday by the same name. The staff has had multiple opinions and responses to the release but I think it fair to point out some major technical and factual failures behind the argument of Shami's release.

To do so, I'll reprint portions of that release with commentary below.

Attention Democrats: Bill White Can't Win In November

A Rasmussen Poll released Wednesday shows that Democratic gubernatorial candidate Bill White can't win against any of the Republican gubernatorial candidates this November.

White can't even muster enough points in the pool to defeat Debra Medina, the darling of the Tea Party movement in Texas. Medina struggles to get 16% support in the Republican polls, but still bests the establishment-anointed "Democratic Frontrunner" Bill White. Medina now edges White 41% to 38%. Last month, White had a 44% to 38% lead on her.

This is the crux of the Shami campaign's argument- that since White is losing head to head polls against the Republican candidates in February of 2010 there is no way for him to beat the GOP nominee in November.

+ Nevermind the fact that at the time of the poll White hadn't aired a single TV ad while Perry, Hutchison, and Medina have spent millions.

+ Nevermind the fact that in the last two weeks White gained a point in the spread between himself and Perry, and gained two points in the spread between himself and Hutchison- the only two candidates with a chance at being the nominee.

+ Nevermind the fact that in the 2006 Governor's race, Chris Bell polled 10 points below his eventual Election Day total in polls taken this far out from November.

But the reason why this line of attack is so incredulous is that there is no comparative polling that shows Shami performing any better. If the Shami campaign had polling that proved their point (and there is no shortage of money to pay for it in his campaign), they'd have released it. They haven't and that speaks volumes.

While the Democratic Party establishment focuses on  a career politician, Farouk Shami has been gaining support among rank-and-file Democratic Primary voters across the state.

"It is time to end politics as usual. This poll is proof positive that the Texas Democratic establishment couldn't lead a silent prayer, much less designate our party's standard bearer," Farouk Shami said when he saw these results.

It's truly skillful how in the same sentence you can attack the Democratic Party establishment for supporting your opponent and then claim to have support of the Democratic Party rank-and-file. The rank-and-file in a traditional small primary turnout is the establishment. The rank-and-file are the precinct chairs, the activists, the people who spend their time analyzing party primary press releases. They are the people that vote in local club or organizational endorsements- which have nearly unanimously endorsed Bill White.

And come on- if the Texas Democratic establishment could designate the party's standard bearer in a race, then Linda Chavez-Thompson would have blown Ronnie Earle and Marc Katz out of the water by now in the Lt. Governor's race. The only thing being blown in that race is my mind for how mind-numbingly boring it has been between the "leading" candidates.

"While career politicians like Bill White focus on their next political office, I'm focused on Texans and bringing jobs to this state," he said. "I may be an unconventional candidate but Texans are ready for some fresh ideas. That's evident in how Debra Medina's numbers are improving. The establishment needs to listen up, because Texas Democrats aren't buying the goods they are selling anymore," Shami said during a swing through the Rio Grande Valley today.

Calling Bill White a career politician bends reality to such a point that it nearly breaks the truth. White has held one elected political office, Mayor of Houston, and served in that capacity a total of 3 terms. By that measure, my father, who last year was re-elected for his third term as a Fredericksburg City Councilman is a career politician. Please.

And if Farouk Shami is using Debra Medina as the measuring stick for "fresh ideas" I'll be more than happy to help him find his marbles because he has clearly lost them. Eliminating the property tax in favor of a regressive sales tax that increases taxes on lower and middle income Texas isn't "fresh".  Making Texas Sovereignty a thinly veiled cover for support of pro-secessionist beliefs isn't a "fresh idea". That idea is about 150 years old and settled by a war that killed more Americans than any war in our nation's history.

And finally...

"We need real courage, real leadership and a candidate that's out there listening to the voters, not pandering to donors and reciting tired talking points. That's the kind of campaign Farouk Shami is running. We look forward to a healthy debate on February 8," Vince Leibowitz, Campaign Director added.

At least Bill White has donors he could pander to if he wanted. As noted yesterday, while White raised over $750,000 last month, more than any Democratic or Republican candidate, Shami raised $2,778- slightly more than Hank Gilbert has spent on suits in his Ag Commissioner race.

In closing, and now that I have your attention Democrats, remember... Farouk Shami Can't Win in November because not a single poll published to date shows that he can.  

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I'm looking forward to that debate (0.00 / 0)
If Mr. Shami's performance is anything like that at the January Travis County CEC meeting it could be the end of his campaign. Listening to his incoherent stream-of-consciousness answers that night I thought, "This is what Jennifer Gayle would have sounded like if she had been a millionaire."  

Hope is not a plan.

Listening to Shami is sad (0.00 / 0)
I've got no problem with candidates who are successful businessmen, and yes, the business experience is relevant to running a state. Occasionally a self-funded candidate is the best choice.

But Shami's answer to every question is "we need jobs and I created some". (Reminiscent of Giuliani and 9-11.) He has nothing to say about school finance, or property taxes, or roads, or health care, or a host of other issues. It's pretty clear that he knows very little about state government. When he met with the Austin American Statesman's editorial board, he couldn't even answer basic questions about who our key state officials (AG, comptroller, etc) are.

Shami's speech at the Travis County candidate forum was just a string of sound bites, with his large retinue cheering loudly for each one, but with no actual content. (With one exception: his defense of having given Ted Cruz a $5,000 contribution was effective.)

The Rasmussen poll is worrying. White does face an uphill fight in November. But his chances of winning are 100 times better than Shami's. Shami's nomination would be an epic embarrassment to the Democratic party.  


[ Parent ]
I enjoyed the heck out of that diatribe (0.00 / 0)
It was so hilarious.  Shami must have you scared silly to make you worry about him so much, and to argue against him so poorly.  Give me a break!  The guy is of Palestinian descent, has a name to match, and openly supports the Palestinian cause.  It really doesn't take any other discussion to realize he can't win.  

I AM SO SCARED (0.00 / 0)
AAAAAAAAHHHHHHHHHH!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Now, a very great man once said that some people rob you with a fountain pen.

[ Parent ]
I mean, that's the obvious stuff (0.00 / 0)
And it's the stuff that we don't like to talk about in public, because as idealists we hope that one day someone with those three "negative aspects" to their candidacy could actually win.

Shami isn't scaring the staff, he's annoying them to no end.

"Let us tenderly and kindly cherish therefore, the means of knowledge. Let us dare to read, think, speak, and write."  -  John Adams


[ Parent ]
IT WAS A RASMUSSEN POLL! (0.00 / 0)
I would be very surprised a possibly worried if a Rasmussen poll showed White leading.

Good point. (0.00 / 0)
Rassmussen numbers generally trail national numbers from Gallup, et al, by, what 5-10 points?  If that's the case (tho Rass' numbers seem to get better the more "red" the state, so let's not assume this same bias in Texas), then this is almost a dead heat.

Please, the real story is this: White is within the margin of error (hardly what you could call a certifiable loss) with Medina, who a month ago had almost no name recognition.  That poll question may as well have been "Generic Republic vs Generic Democrat" for governor.

And since Bill White has yet to really make a move in media (as KT rightly says), he is still fairly unknown outside of the Houston area and the people he's been able to meet through good ol' shoe-leather glad-handing baby-kissin' retail politics.  

If this was October I'd be worried. But it's not.

The real story everyone missed is that Perry's re-elect v White (still a relative unknown) is below 50%.  That means voters are willing to give White a shot.... barring any unforseen spoilage by an independent.  Someone get Carole Keaton Strayhorn on the phone and make sure she doesn't get any ideas.....oh, and someone start stirring the pot that Medina should mount an independent campaign.  Please.

FTW!~


"this post does not reflect the views of anyone or any other organization other than Citizen Andy, and even then not all the time."


[ Parent ]
too bad (0.00 / 0)
this has gotten kind of sad.

i'm actually feeling bad for shami. deny the comparisons all you want, but this looks like tony sanchez v2.0. it literally pains me that he is wasting all of this money.

the guarantee ad doesn't do anything to bolster his credentials. it seems like a gimic. i find it hard to believe that it polled well on a wide-scale.  maybe it played well in a focus group and they convinced themselves it was a good idea? no se.

surely they can't still be trying to convince him that he can win in March? at least, i hope they aren't.

and these attacks on white are petty and lack merit.

clearly there are no polling numbers that present a scenario where shami could win in march OR november or we would have seen them by now.

Please refer to KT's signature.


shami poll (0.00 / 0)
Where are the poll numbers showing that Shami can win in November?

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