| Lately, I've liked telling people that Democrats have a very good chance to make important gains in all levels of state government, from the Governor's Mansion to the State Board of Education.
With the SBOE, there are really only one or two districts where Democrats can reasonably hope to take away from Republicans, but the story on that board is not so much Democrats vs. Republicans. In the SBOE, somehow, one major group is of crazy conservatives who want to isolate Texas into a Christian and potentially unproductive box. The other group: rational people, both Democrats and Republicans, who want to ensure that Texas children are prepared to compete in the global economy.
There are four important seats where that way-too-extreme social conservatism is being fought tooth-and-nail. One is SBOE 3, where Democrat Rick Agosto has embarrassingly been a swing vote with the crazies. He's been pushed to not running for reelection, and Michael Soto is expected to take his place and do well.
The other important races are in districts 5, 9, and 10. The Texas Freedom Network did a nice roundup of SBOE fundraising, so let's take a look at these three districts.
SBOE District 5
This district stretches from Bexar County to southern Travis County and includes the Hill Country.
Republican Primary
Ken Mercer (I): $8,035.00 in contributions, in $3,639.05 cash on hand
Tim Tuggey: $60,330.58 in contributions, in $24,945.65 cash on hand
Democratic Primary
Rebecca Bell-Metereau: $17,797 in contributions, in $6,414.44 cash on hand
Robert Bohmfalk: no report available yet
Daniel Boone: $4,176.72 in contributions, in $3,457.72 cash on hand
Josiah Ingalls: $350 in contributions, in $36.15 cash on hand
There are a lot of Democrats who think that Rebecca Bell-Metereau has a decent shot, and she is certainly leading the other Democrats in fundraising as well as social conservative incumbent Ken Mercer.
But the real challenge to Mercer might be in his own party. Tim Tuggey is absolutely dominating the money race. He's spent more than half what he has received, but he still has about 3 times more on hand than Mercer has raised at all. If his spending is wise, we'll see Mercer knocked off in March.
District 9
This largely East-Central Texas district stretches from Plano to Bryan-College Station.
Don McLeroy (I): $1,200 in contributions, $611.33 in cash on hand
Thomas Ratliff: $15,173.20 in contributions, $8,098.50 in cash on hand
District 9 is a definitely Republican district, which could hurt Ratliff. But he still is significantly leading McLeroy, and he has his father's name. Don McLeroy is possibly the most dangerous member of the State Board of Education. So, go Thomas Ratliff!
District 10
This district stretches from Williamson and northern Travis County to just west of Houston. Republican incumbent Cynthia Dunbar is not running for re-election.
Republican Primary
Marsha Farney: no contributions, no cash on hand
Rebecca Osborne: $5,416.00 in contributions, $5,515.09 in cash on hand
Brian Russell: $8,229.40 in contributions, $7,455 in cash on hand
Democrat
Judy Jennings: $15,900 in contributions, $14,072.31 in cash on hand
Cynthia Dunbar, as you probably know, is in that McLeroy-level of dangerousness. Thankfully, she's not running. But her hand-picked successor, Brian Russell, is probably just as bad. He's leading the Republican money race, but Rebecca Osborne has been campaigning longer.
Thankfully, Judy Jennings beats both of us. District 10 contains about half of Travis County, and it is also the absolutely best chance for a Democrat to take a seat that a Republican has held. This is a clear toss-up seat, so seeing Jennings' lead is a surely comforting sign. |
