| While the news earlier today that Kirk Watson has passed on a Gubernatorial bid will get most of the headlines, an overlooked story from yesterday could ultimately play a huge role in determining who will be the Democratic nominee next year. The Austin American-Statesman story began, "A little known Fort Worth resident plans to run for governor next year " .... but they're not talking about Tom Schieffer. Instead, the candidate in question is Felix Alvarado, a high school geography teacher who would have run for governor in 2006 had his filing fee check not bounced. Now, assuming his check clears, Alvarado will a candidate in 2010. Alvarado's entry makes him the only Latino in the race and in turn, given recent Democratic primary history, a serious contender to win the nomination. Alvarado could be another Victor Morales, the high school teacher who drove his pick up truck to a surprise victory over incumbent Congressmen John Bryant and Jim Chapman in the 1996 U.S. Senate Democratic primary. Morales ran again in 2002 and topped another Congressman -- this time Ken Bentsen -- and went on to lose the runoff to Ron Kirk. Or he could be another Maria Luisa Alvarado, who happens to be his sister. She easily defeated former State Rep. and 6th Court of Appeals Justice Ben Z. Grant in the 2006 Lt. Governor Democratic primary runoff. Depending which races are on the ballot, South Texas has had disproportionately high turnout in Democratic primaries. For example, in the 2006 Democratic primary, Webb County had almost as many votes as Dallas County and had nearly twice the amount that Tarrant County had. In the subsequent runoff that Alvarado won, Webb's vote totals were almost as high as the combined totals from Dallas and Harris counties. A look at the map from the Alvarado-Grant runoff from the US Election Atlas, which Alvarado won with 58 percent of the vote, shows the huge influence that South Texas had on the race. Although Grant won nearly every one of the state's major metropolitan counties, Maria Luisa Alvarado carried the border region by huge margins and went on to a 16 point victory. Schieffer's campaign has actually done some good early work in the Rio Grande Valley, securing the endorsements of former Cameron County Judge Gilberto Hinojosa and the Texas Association of Hispanic County Judges and County Commissioners. Whether Felix Alvarado will be able to go from unknown to Democratic nominee like others have remains to be seen, but the potential, especially if a better known Democrat does not enter the race, is certainly there. |
