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Analysis: Hutchison Says She Will Resign in October or November


by: David Mauro

Wed Jul 29, 2009 at 00:35 PM CDT


While appearing on a Dallas talk radio show this morning, U.S. Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison told host Mark Davis that she expected to resign her seat in the Senate in October or November.

Rick vs Kay has the transcript:

Davis: So you’ll be coming out at some point. When do you think its decision time for you? When would you like when might we know?

Hutchison: I’m going to announce in August. Formal announcement I am in. Then the actual leaving of the Senate will be sometime – October/November – that-- in that time frame.

While it first should be said that Hutchison has said plenty of things over the years and many skeptics will not be convinced until she actually resigns, this is the closest Hutchison herself has come to setting a real timetable for an exit from the Senate.

Once Hutchison resigns, the non-existent U.S. Senate race we have been reporting about for months will suddenly have an election date and a new incumbent, as Gov. Rick Perry will be able appoint someone to fill the term between the resignation and the special election.

Who would Perry pick? Many Republicans aeem to be waiting to see who Perry picks before they decide to back a candidate. If Perry picks someone like Lt. Gov. David Dewhurst, who would be able to self-finance his campaign with millions of dollars, it is hard to imagine Republican candidates who have so far been fundraising failures, like Railroad Commissioners Michael Williams and Elizabeth Ames Jones, being very competitive.

The campaign spokesman for former Secretary of State Roger Williams, who was a Perry apointee, recently speculated that Williams' relatively strong fundraising quarter could put him in a good position to receive the appointment. Clearly, Perry will be looking to back a winning horse and given his options, he may decide Dewhurst, for all the Lieutenant Governor's flaws, is his best bet.

Gardner Selby wrote last week that Perry was considering calling a special election much earlier than many had assumed, potentially calling for an election before the end of the year.

Under the law, if the governor determines that an emergency warrants holding a special election before the uniform election date, then it can be on a nonuniform date as long as the governor identifies the nature of the emergency.

Translation: The election can happen any day the governor pleases.

And should Hutchison step down, Perry would consider setting an election shortly. Perry spokeswoman Allison Castle told me, "If a vacancy were to occur, the governor would be inclined to call an election soon to ensure Texans are fully represented" in Washington.

While it is fun (and exhausting) to speculate about the many scenarios that could play out following Hutchison's resignation, we have learned over the years that with Hutchison there is often a disconnect between words and actions.

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