A Look at Incumbent House Democratic Fundraising

The Homer numbers are not good (0.00 / 0)

Hope he's planning on stepping it up and not planning to retire.

Hopson could use a bit of a boost as well.

The rest though, very good. I am pleased with our incumbents.

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by: trowaman @ Sat Jul 18, 2009 at 14:26:49 PM CDT

The numbers are surprising too (0.00 / 0)

because at this point in the 08 cycle he had almost $130k on hand. Still plenty of time though.

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by: David Mauro @ Sat Jul 18, 2009 at 14:45:49 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Kristi's voters (0.00 / 0)

The phenomena of Obama coattails helped Kristi win last year. Will the African voters who showed up last year for Obama turn out for the likes of Tom Schieffer? This seat could slip back in the red column.

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by: Bluefish @ Sat Jul 18, 2009 at 16:40:53 PM CDT

Let's rephrase, shall we? (0.00 / 0)

"Will the African voters who showed up last year for Obama turn out for ANYONE ELSE?"

My money goes to no.

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by: trowaman @ Sun Jul 19, 2009 at 10:57:46 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

Well (0.00 / 0)

African voters won't turn out for anybody, since they are in Africa.

I assume the reference is meant for African-Americans.

And if they aren't "turning out for anybody else", that is the fault of the candidate or party. It should be a priority to maximize turnout in a group that votes 90% Democratic and has quite loyal to say the least

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by: v2aggie2 @ Sun Jul 19, 2009 at 18:44:16 PM CDT

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House District 47 (0.00 / 0)

Former District 47 Rep. Terry Keel is setting on $60,000 in his campaign account even after giving $5k to Perry and paying brother Thornton Keel his $400 monthly allowance. If I was Rep. Bolton, I was fundraise with a vengeance until I had $60k or more in my campaign account.

TK still has the basic financial resources to launch a significant political campaign. He is an accident waiting to happen. It's just matter time of when and what office he will file to run for.

I consider Rep. Bolton and Rep. Maldonado as the key Central Texas House seats to be fought over in 2010. Both need a major infusion of campaign cash this summer and fall.

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by: ssuits @ Sat Jul 18, 2009 at 18:34:44 PM CDT

HD-17 (0.00 / 0)

Freshman Tim Kleinschmidt, who stayed quiet as a backbencher who rode in on heavy Craddick money, is finally out of debt (over $50K at election time). He brought in $15,250, spent $32,299.50 (!), and has but $15,558.72 COH. He should get a serious challenger, seeing as he did nothing except sign on with every appraisal cap bill that came down the pike. He ignored the needs of his district: crippling drought and pleas for relief from county officials, farm & ranch organizations, and several school districts hurting for funding, among other things. Not a good start for a guy who pledged to support public schools and represent "small-town values".  

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by: Robert Ryland @ Sun Jul 19, 2009 at 12:18:39 PM CDT

Can someone enlighten me on HD-17? (0.00 / 0)

I am under the impression that HD-17 was one of those Good Ole Boy districts, everyone votes for the blue dog democrat until recently when conservatives began voting more straight ticket Republican. However, due to the district's proximity to Austin and Travis county, it is experiencing exburban sprawl and 10 years or so down the road (if the lines were to stay the same) would be about half exurban and half rural with a natural 60% lean for Republican presidential candidates.

Is this a fair characterization of the district and where it is heading?

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by: trowaman @ Sun Jul 19, 2009 at 13:16:08 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

yes and no. (0.00 / 0)

HD 17 was drawn up in 2001 to get rid of conservative Dems like Robby Cook, who survived 3 strong challenges before opting to walk away in late 2007. Kleinschmidt was able to close the deal last year for the Rs on the open seat.

The new residents in the exurban subdivisions near both Bastrop and Elgin have been splitting pretty evenly for the most part, titling slightly R along TX 71 and slightly D along 290. The partisan bases here are about even, with the GOP stronger at the top of the ballot but Dems stronger as you drill down the ballot. However, Obama added almost 2,000 votes to our top line in '08 (vs. Kerry's in '04), and Dems upped our straight tickets by 20% (nearly 1,000 more) over '04 while the Repubs added next to none. Dems have a solid straight ticket advantage in Bastrop but independents have broken for the Rs at the top since Bush.  

But about 45% of the vote in HD 17 is in Bastrop County, Despite the Repub strength at the top, downballot Democrats have continued to perform strongly here, due to both an influx of  middle class Austinites priced out of the city as well as the persistence of older yellowdawgs who have stayed true. There are numerous county-level Dems in office, some of them winning with healthy margins even with Obama on the ballot.  

As for the rest of HD 17, it's pretty tough rural sledding, with 2-1 and sometimes 3-1 deficits. Dippel was a Fayette County native and managed to pull almost even with Kleinschmidt there last year, but lost all the other counties by substantial margins.

Basically, a Democrat that can win a strong margin in Bastrop County can make this district competitive, and if perhaps Burleson or Colorado is lopped off in redistricting, it could certainly move the calculus in our favor. Best estimates say that the census will show about 85% of the growth in this district happening in Bastrop, and mostly between Austin and the centers of Elgin & Bastrop on the 290 and 71 corridors.  

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by: Robert Ryland @ Sun Jul 19, 2009 at 19:02:40 PM CDT

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District 85 (0.00 / 0)

Joe Heflin, the Democrat filling Pete Laney's former seat, will surely be targeted again. In 2008 he won my about 3,000 votes.  He is one of the few Dems in West Texas (excluding El Paso).

It's important to keep this seat to  give some reasonable voice for those in the reddest area.

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by: LubbockDem @ Mon Jul 20, 2009 at 21:45:58 PM CDT