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If ever a case existed of a legislator's profile crumbling before our very eyes due to intense scrutiny and the demands of leadership then Representative Todd Smith was that case during the 81st legislative session. Despite these truths, House District 92 will likely continue to be represented by a Republican after the 2010 election cycle.
House District 92 contains the beating heart of the Mid-Cities, which is essentially Hurst, Euless, and Bedford, but also parts of Grand Prairie that fall under the Tarrant County umbrella. This territory is generally known as Northeast Tarrant County.
Todd Smith was first elected to the Texas legislature in 1996 after serving a prior five years on the Euless City Council. He has essentially run unopposed as a Republican in every election but was challenged in 2008 by Democrat Kalandra Wheeler who received 34% of the electorate vote in a district that voted 39% for President Barack Obama.
Read more of this analysis below the fold |
| House District 92 has a great deal of potential for Democrats in the very near future, but not likely in the 2010 election cycle unless some factors fall into play that generates a scenario where this district flips before it is truly ready to do so. Since Smith was elected in 1996 he has been a phantom legislator who has provided little to no leadership and certainly no results for his constituents. He has been comfortable in his legislative position for far too long and apparently hasn't felt all that compelled to deliver some legislative victories. When Tom Craddick ascended to the speakership in 2002, Smith immediately found himself in the Republican doghouse as a moderate in a very Right-leaning Party. With the ascendance of Joe Strauss to the role of Speaker of the House, a moderate himself, Smith was awarded the Chairmanship of the Elections Committee and tasked with sheepherding a partisan-laden, one-party dominance motivated, voter disenfranchising piece of legislation known as Voter Identification. Smith talked a good game of the need to find common ground and to pursue a bi-partisan solution on legislation targeted at a perceived "problem" that doesn't even exist. Smith wilted under the intense scrutiny to balance the need to give his Party elders what they wanted--legislation that would disenfranchise largely a Democratic voting population and maximize Republican turnout---and a piece of legislation he could claim would get Republican and Democrat votes in the House. As it turns out he failed in both regards.
The fact is that Todd Smith is his own worst enemy now and any qualified Democrat who challenges him in 2010 has enough ammunition, and opportunity considering the district is showing trends of moving Democrat, to make Smith's re-election efforts pure hell. All of Texas saw a legislator with little to no backbone step forward and fold like a house of cards. He derailed his own version of Voter ID before it ever came out of his own committee. He again walks away from the 81st Legislative session with no victories to tout. Smith also served on the Transportation committee and supported the Local Option Tax Bill that would have empowered municipalities and counties to generate revenue for transportation needs. It failed. As did a revamping of the Texas Department of Transportation. He claims to be anti-toll but the North Tarrant Express Plan, which the Texas Attorney General has claimed needs altering to be legal, will run through parts of his district. This guy talks out of two ends of his mouth and he has just enough feet connected to his body to insert them at both ends but he continues to bungle every opportunity he is given. Smith will be lucky if he doesn't have to fend off a challenger within his own Party based on his Voter ID antics, a charge that was cultivated even more after this exchange below between he and Tarrant County Republican Party Chairwoman Stephanie Klick:
The chairwoman of the Tarrant County Republican Party warned that the ID proposal could be fumbled on Smith's watch.
"As chairman of the Elections Committee, it is essential that Representative Todd Smith champion a Voter ID bill that protects the electoral process and is immediately implemented," Stephanie Klick wrote in an e-mail to county residents. "Why would we pass a bill to protect the electoral process, but then wait several elections before we implement it? The sanctity of the electoral process deserves immediate protection, and should not be delayed for 4 years."
Smith later charged that Klick misrepresented his views by saying he was considering a clause permitting voters to register at the polls - an idea urged by Democrats.
"There are 15 people who circulate e-mails to one another and think they have more power than they do have," Smith said. "She doesn't matter; there's nobody in my district who cares what she thinks."
Smith clearly doesn't represent the majority of the Republican Party right now---which is closer to extreme than mainstream these days---and we know that Craddick has been hunting in the past for someone to run against Smith so it is not out of question that someone to the Right of him campaigns against him in the Republican Primary.
Todd Smith is a wounded animal, but think about how wounded he would be coming out of a potential primary and then forced to face, hopefully, a formidable Democratic challenger in a district that is moving Democrat. At a minimum a challenger has enough ammo to pelt away at Smith, force him to raise and spend money at home defending himself, and move the Democratic Performance Index to an even more competitive position for 2012.
In summation, Smith is vulnerable and his district is shifting. A number of factors, such as Tom Schieffer as the gubernatorial nominee (not an endorsement of him, just a fact based on the candidates home county advantage) and a hot District Attorney's race in Tarrant County, could drive up turnout and have a coattail effect for any Democratic challenger that may create a surprise in 2010. Having said that, the odds are this district stays Republican and becomes more competitive for Democrats in 2012, but only if a good challenger emerges to keep momentum moving in our favor. |
