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House District 91 Analysis


by: Todd Hill

Tue Jun 09, 2009 at 01:00 PM CDT


If I had the power to add just one more individual to the "furniture" category of the Top Ten Best and Worst legislators of 2009 I would add Republican Kelly Hancock, the Joel Osteen of the Texas Legislature, to that category.  If there was ever a profile of a legislator missing in action and lacking political Will during the 81st session---doing nothing more than collecting dust like old capitol furniture, Hancock fits it.  Despite all of these failings as a legislator representing House District 91, a district that is home to some of the worst traffic gridlock in the state of Texas, Hancock is likely to win a third term in 2010.  

House District 91 encompasses cities such as North Richland Hills, Richland Hills, Watauga, and Haltom City.  The territory is generally known as the North Central region of Tarrant County.

Hancock was first elected in 2006, running in a four-way primary to replace retired Republican Bob Griggs, and was challenged in the general election by former North Richland Hills City Councilman and Mayor Pro Tempore, Democrat Byron Sibbet.  Hancock garnered 59% of the vote to Sibbet's 38%.  In 2008 Hancock ran for re-election against Democrat Chris Utchell.  Hancock garnered 61% of the vote to Utchell's 36%.  Turnout was much higher in 2008 at 66%, and it being a presidential election year, compared to 35% for 2006, and it being a gubernatorial election year.  It is fair to take a stronger look at 2006 numbers versus 2008 because 2010 represents a gubernatorial year and Barack Obama will not be on the ballot, which did have a negative effect to Democrats down ballot in District 91 in 2008.

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There are a number of elements in 2010 that add up to a great deal of potential for House District 91.  Hancock has provided absolutely zero leadership in Austin since his initial election in 2006.  During the 81st legislative session, when arguably the #1 issue facing his district is transportation, Hancock failed to take any substantial lead in drafting and/or supporting legislation that his district would have benefited from.  North Richland Hills Mayor, and Hancock supporter during the past two elections, Oscar Trevino, had this to say:

"There's a lack of leadership in Austin," North Richland Hills Mayor Oscar Trevino said. "They aren't taking responsibility for the problems we are facing in their district. They are elected to lead, and they played games."

Momentum in Tarrant County favors Democrats and so House District 91, with a competitive challenger to Hancock, can continue and move the DPI numbers into the lower 40% range and make the district competitive and viable for 2012.  Having a very strong challenger in 2010 means momentum can move even farther than that.  Additional Factors in 2010 that can certainly speed up the DPI momentum for 91 would be if Tom Schieffer, a Tarrant County native, is the gubernatorial nominee for Democrats.  Schieffer being a hometown guy could generate higher turnout for Democrats and have a down ballot effect that benefits other candidates on the ballot in Tarrant County.  Having a hot District Attorney's race on the ballot to help generate additional turnout, and where Democrats can also be competitive in Tarrant County, also could be a momentum factor that favors any challenger in House District 91.  The potential for a very competitive County Judge race could also make things exciting from a countywide perspective that could generate more votes for Democrats, including for any challenger in HD-91.  Straight "D" voting has been increasing in Tarrant County since 2006 as well while straight "R" voting has been decreasing.  The Party is more viable and the infrastructure more stable.  

A 2010 House District 91 race means keeping Hancock raising and spending money at home, hold him accountable for being nothing more than capitol furniture since his election in 2006, and winnowing his support amongst elected district officials.  Accomplishing those things and given any additional factors above equals a lot of potential in 2010 looking toward 2012.            

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He's a hometown boy (0.00 / 0)
and they play that up in his bio on his Rep page you linked to. That can give someone a real sense of "security," and that can translate into taking few risks. It will need to be another "hometown" candidate willing to bring up these issues about his record to oust him. No?

Precisely (0.00 / 0)
He is a hometown boy and those connections, mostly his fathers, but certainly the family name, helped him through the primary in 2006.  Once a Republican was decided the seat is all but theirs.  

You are right, it will take another hometown candidate to give him a run and possibly knock him off.  There are a few individuals on the bench that hopefully are up to the task.  

Todd

"You must be the change you wish to see in the world." - Mahatma Gandhi


[ Parent ]
There's a chance (3.00 / 1)
After getting feedback from many of the residents in District 91, mostly Republicans, I agree that the opportunity is there to defeat Kelly Hancock if everything were to fall just right. Hancock has lost the support of some of his strongest donors from both 2006 and 2008.

His lack of leadership regarding not only transportation,but education, has angered many die-hard Republican civic leaders. I have spoken to many staunch Republicans who have said they would vote for the "right" Democrat if he/she ran against Hancock in 2010.

If we can find the right candidate, and as Todd says, everything falls correctly, District 91 has a lot of potential in 2010.

Chris Utchell


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