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Pressure on KBH to Resign Mounts (UPDATE: KBH Tells Bill White Election Will Be in May)


by: Todd Hill

Thu May 07, 2009 at 05:01 PM CDT


Ed. note: See the update at the end of this post!

A new Rasmussen poll released today confirms what I have been saying for several weeks now: Kay Bailey Hutchison best resign now and return to Texas to build a whole new Texas Republican Party if she is truly serious about running for Governor of Texas this time.

In a head to head match, Rick Perry enjoys a secession motivated bounce from the far-Right at 42%, which catapults him over Kay Bailey Hutchison and her 38%.  The spread is within the polls 4% margin of error with a 95% confidence interval, so technically it is a statistical dead heat.  

These new poll results continue and demonstrate a steady climb for Governor Perry who has increasingly amended his platform and rhetoric to appeal to the extreme far-Right, Rush Limbaugh led, and Fox News motivated Texas GOP voter.  Hutchison, on the other hand, has kept comfy in Washington DC, apparently not feeling the pressure at all to come back to Texas and campaign for a Republican gubernatorial primary.

As I have said before, Hutchison has sucked up to Republican politicos here in Texas before and given the impression in the past that she would run for governor only to back out at the last minute.  Is Kay Bailey Hutchison doing it again?  Is she once again basing her political decisions on which way the political winds are blowing?   I mean, how else can we explain the fact that she doesn't feel the need to campaign for the very same voters that Rick Perry is pandering before at secession rallies.    

The fact is, Kay, that if you are truly serious about running for governor against Rick Perry you have to make it through the Republican primary first.  And because you consider yourself a "moderate" Republican, which hardly describes the average Texas GOP primary voter, than your job is to build a whole new Party.  You need at a minimum 1/3rd of the Republican vote, 1/3rd of the Independent vote, and 1/3rd of the disenchanted Democrat vote if you stand a chance in a head to head match with Good Hair.

Frankly, I'm fine with you not taking on Rick Perry in the gubernatorial primary.  That makes any potential Democratic candidates that much more likely to win if Good Hair is the GOP choice.  The problem is, Kay, you can't perch yourself in Washington DC and expect that you can appeal to Republican primary voters in Texas, especially without building yourself a new Party to get out and vote for you.  It takes more than a year to build a whole new Party.  

I think it's high time that Kay Bailey Hutchison put up or shut up.  Resign and come back to Texas and run in the Republican primary against Rick Perry or disappear till 2012.  What say you, KBH?

7:20pm Update by Phillip

Todd Hill just e-mailed me this news from his mobile phone:

Was just at a Bill White meet and greet in Tarrant County. He said that Hutchison has assured him that she'll resign in a fashion that will lead to a May 2010 special election. She'll likely resign after Houston elections in November.

Why would Hutchison say that to White? Provided that it's true, of course...

Does she favor White? She's a moderate Republican -- maybe she would want to give him a heads up. (Glad to see White is sharing the information, then -- again, provided that this is true).

Has Hutchison finally recognized that Perry is slugging her to death (hence the catch up in the polls) and that she can't play footsy in D.C. any more?

Interesting.

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It'd be in our best interest for KBH to stay in the Gov race (0.00 / 0)
Given that the only recent statewide race that Democrats were remotely "competitive" in was the 2006 gubernatorial race, I'd say we definitely need KBH to run for Senate and vacate her seat so that Democrats can benefit from a special election where we have a huge financial lead with White and Sharp as well as avoiding the election day Republican regulars.

The reason for this being that, in 2006 Democrats lost to republicans in each of statewide office by roughly 1 million votes (again, governor's race excluded). To further illustrate the significance of that number I'll point out that even Obama lost to McCain by around 12% and nearly 1 million votes.  In order to overcome this, we'll need to create that many new ACTIVE democratic voters by 2010.  This is obviously not likely even with the best run political campaigns with fantastic field programs.

It would be far more efficient to invest in winning back the State Congress in order to control redistricting and then focus on the 2014 statewides.  Additionally, it would be in our (Democrats) best interest to see a special election where White or Sharp can stand a chance against some new Republican names who haven't been statewide political figures since the 1990's.  


sorry... (0.00 / 0)
I meant to say "we definitely need KBH to run for GOVERNOR.." not Senate.  

Very interesting update guys.  I'll be interested in hearing more about this in the near future.


[ Parent ]
Early enough for money raising for Primary BUT (2.00 / 1)
late enough to keep the special from the March date?

Kay cannot raise more than the federal max per contributor for her Governor's race as long as she is in the Senate.   Seems like she'd want to resign early enough in the primary season to take (and use) those already lined up mega contributions from the Repub establishment for her Republican primary.   So resigning before March makes sense.

Anybody know what the latest date she can resign before March primary, but not enough time to put the special electio on the same date as the Primary???

That would push to special to the next regular election date which is a May date.


Special (3.00 / 1)
My understanding is that is KBH resigns before Sept 1, the election must be in November. If she resigns after that, the election must be in May. There is no scenario that aligns the special with the March primaries. It is an open election, separated from the political parties.

[ Parent ]
Correct (3.00 / 1)
You are correct, White told me exactly the same thing.  If she resigns before September 1 the election would have to be in November which would not be good for White considering the Houston elections are in that same month.  He is still Mayor of Houston, after all.    

If she resigns after the Houston elections then the election would be in May.  And, of course, White would no longer be Mayor of Houston at that time.

I'll say this about White, he knows his stuff.  He is a highly intelligent man.  That's what is most striking about him when you talk directly to him, it's his intelligence.  

One thing that impressed me to about his campaign tonight is that he has both a rural county team and an urban county team.  I met both coordinators tonight.  You know what that means, folks?  We have a candidate who not only realizes that he has to run a rural and urban county campaign if he has a chance in hell of winning, but that he has developed teams, with coordinators, whose jobs are to do exactly that and nothing more.  Each team focuses only on the task they have been given: one rural and the other urban.  Very impressive.  

Todd    

"You must be the change you wish to see in the world." - Mahatma Gandhi


[ Parent ]
Special can not be in March (0.00 / 0)
The Election Code does not allow a special election to be held on the same day as the primary.

Quick note from Bill White for Texas team (0.00 / 0)
What Bill said yesterday wasn't anything new. Senator Hutchison has said to Bill and others that she intends to resign in circumstances that will create a special election. She can address questions related to timing. From time to time she's talked about it with the press. As y'all know, Texas law allows for special elections in May and November.

To hear more from Bill, check out the Facebook page he updates almost every day: www.billwhitefortexas.com/facebook, and follow him on Twitter @billwhitefortx.


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