Swing State Project has released its initial set of gubernatorial race ratings for 2010 and has Texas as a “race to watch.”
Texas – Rick Perry (R): RTW
If Kay Bailey Hutchison decapitates secessionist incumbent Gov. Rick Perry in the Republican primary, this race will likely be all but over. But if Perry somehow fends off her challenge, a Democrat like ex-state Rep. Tom Schieffer just may have an outside chance, although the most recent polling suggests that Dems would still start off behind the 8-ball.
Kay Baily won't beat Rick Perry in a GOP primary because she hasn't flown down from her perch in Washington DC to start building a whole new Republican Party in order to defeat Good Hair and his secessionist followers. Hutchison has to build a new Texas GOP if she has a snowballs chance in hell of beating Perry and last time I checked it takes more than a year to build a political party. Now that Kay, as BOR writer David Mauro rightly points out, doesn't have the pressure to stay in the senate to prevent a filibuster proof, Democratically controlled senate from coming to fruition, she might swoop back to Texas and get to work sooner rather than later.
I'm liking a Democratic candidates odds with every passing day for the reasons above and more. Whether it is Schieffer, or another quality Democrat like Senator Van de Putte on the ballot, it has been a long time since a gubernatorial race in Texas has been listed as one to watch and it certainly creates some excitement for us as we head toward '10.