Ed. Note: The Research 2000 Texas Poll was conducted from April 20 through April 22, 2009. A total of 600 likely voters who vote regularly in state elections were interviewed statewide by telephone. The poll was 39% Republican, 33% Democrat, and 28% independent. Full poll results available here.
A poll conducted by Research 2000 -- commissioned by Daily Kos -- shows that exactly half of Texas Republicans polled want to secede: QUESTION: Do you think Texas would be better off as an independent nation or as part of the United States of America? | | US | IND | NOT SURE | | ALL | 61 | 35 | 4 |
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| MEN | 57 | 39 | 4 |
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| WOMEN | 65 | 31 | 4 |
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| DEMOCRATS | 82 | 15 | 3 |
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| REPUBLICANS | 48 | 48 | 4 |
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| INDEPENDENTS | 55 | 40 | 5 |
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QUESTION: Do you approve or disapprove of Governor Rick Perry's suggestion that Texas may need to leave the United States?
| APPROVE | DISAPPROVE | NOT SURE |
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| ALL | 37 | 58 | 5 |
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| MEN | 42 | 54 | 4 |
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| WOMEN | 32 | 62 | 6 |
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| DEMOCRATS | 16 | 80 | 4 |
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| REPUBLICANS | 51 | 44 | 5 |
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| INDEPENDENTS | 43 | 50 | 7 |
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The poll also broke down favorable / unfavorable numbers for many candidates (potential and otherwie) across the state: FAVORABLE / UNFAVORABLE
| PERRY | 17 | 34 | 24 | 19 | 6 |
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| BAILEY HUTCHINSON | 27 | 37 | 16 | 13 | 7 |
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| SCHIEFFER | 9 | 17 | 6 | 5 | 63 |
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| ABBOTT | 21 | 24 | 13 | 13 | 29 |
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| DEWHURST | 15 | 24 | 17 | 14 | 30 |
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| WILLIAMS | 13 | 20 | 13 | 12 | 42 |
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| SHAPIRO | 11 | 17 | 14 | 10 | 48 |
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| SHARP | 17 | 19 | 14 | 10 | 40 |
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| WHITE | 16 | 17 | 12 | 11 | 44 |
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| OBAMA | 20 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 2 |
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The poll also showed numerous match-ups for the Gubernatorial and State Senate races. Those result are available by looking here. We will have a write-up about those polls later today. At first blush, there is nothing too new -- Hutchison has a combined favorable/unfavorable of 64/29, while Perry's numbers are 51/43. Exactly the number of people who are favorable of him -- 51% -- support his idea to secede. So it doesn't look like he's exactly bringing anyone new to the table with his shouts of secession. After Hutchison and Perry, though, Obama actually has the highest favorability numbers of any other elected official in Texas. Additionally, every statewide candidate not named Perry or Hutchison is fairly unknown -- with 63% of Texans having no opinion on Tom Schieffer. Talk about the poll for a while. We'll be back to write more later... Update Daily Kos has its post up on this now. I'm gonna steal their side-by-sides on the Senate race: Research 2000 for Daily Kos. 4/20-22. Registered voters. MoE 4%. (No trend lines) Greg Abbott (R) 43
John Sharp (D) 36 Greg Abbott (R) 42
Bill White (D) 36 David Dewhurst (R) 44
John Sharp (D) 37 David Dewhurst (R) 43
Bill White (D) 37 John Sharp (D) 37
Michael Williams (R) 34 Bill White (D) 38
Michael Williams (R) 34 John Sharp (D) 37
Florence Shapiro (R) 33 Bill White (D) 38
Florence Shapiro (R) 33
And the Governor's race... Rick Perry (R-inc) 52
Tom Schieffer (D) 37 Kay Bailey Hutchison (R) 57
Tom Schieffer (D) 35
Obviously, Texas Democrats still have a lot of work to do for the upcoming statewide elections. But without knowing (a) who all the Democrat and Republican candidates will be -- inlcuding whether its Perry or Hutchison who comes out of the bloody Republican primary (b) when the U.S. Senate race ever will happen, (c) what the economy will be like, the polls are just that -- a snapshot in time. We've got some work to do. |
