New Poll: If Wendy Davis is to Win, Battleground Texas and Democrats Must Change Texas Turnout

5
0 Flares Filament.io 0 Flares ×

Poll results show the need for Democratic voter mobilization

Today, Public Policy Polling released the first part of their poll on the Texas electorate. The polling firm tested four statewide races for the fall general election and found Democrats trailing by double digits in all five match-ups. For Governor, Greg Abbott is leading Sen. Wendy Davis 51-37, Sen. John Cornyn leads David Alameel 49-32 for US Senate, Lieutenant Governor David Dewhurst leads Leticia Van de Putte 50-32 while Dan Patrick would lead 51-35 in the same race, and George P. Bush leads John Cook 50-32 for Texas Land Commissioner.

These numbers delineate the challenges facing Democrats as we work to mobilize new voters and bring out our base.

In the cross tabs, one can see that Sen. Davis is handily winning liberals and moderates. However, the state's conservative base is holding as a solid bloc. A bigger problem is that Democratic voters are not familiar with our candidates and are unsure who they will be supporting, while the Republicans already know they like other Republicans, dislike the Democrats, and will vote for the Republicans. No party has an advantage with Independents, who are also the most undecided.

I'll dive into what are the positive and negative takeaways of this poll, show what can be done for Texas Democrats to improve on because of this data, and provide the full polling memo after the jump.With this electoral model, Sen. Davis may perform just as well as President Obama or Houston Mayor Bill White did in previous years once the undecideds decide who they are supporting.

This is why Battleground Texas and a reinvigorated Democratic Party is so important to Texas.

The current electorate's poor turnout will not provide a path to victory for Sen. Davis. n this poll, Hispanic's are projected to make up 18% of the voters, but they are closer to 36% of the eligible voting population. 50% of Hispanics are not familiar with Greg Abbott and are split evenly on Sen. Davis between favorable, unfavorable, and undecided. If the electorate can be changed so that Hispanic voter participation more closely resembles their share of the voting-eligible population, a path to victory should emerge for Davis and Democrats.

Battleground Texas is doing the necessary work to engage voters. This past weekend Battleground Texas volunteers knocked over 55,000 doors for Sen. Davis, more than the Republican party did in all of March.

The poll also indicates a need for Sen. Davis to continue communicating her own positive message, telling her inspirational life story, and advocating as to why she is the best choice for Texans.

When tested against Greg Abbott, Davis wins the 18-29 year old voters and performs 13 points better with women than men, but her personal favorability with both groups are underwater. Public education has long been the corner stone issue that has united Hispanics, youth, and women. Should Sen. Davis' message on education and how Greg Abbott's plan is more tests, she should see some noticeable improvements. Mainly, for her to be successful, Sen. Davis will need to expand the electorate, improve her favorables with young voters, minorities, and women, and communicate her positive message and agenda to Texas voters.

On the upside, Sen. John Cornyn has a net negative approval rating and is disliked by almost everyone; he will return to office simply by coasting on his partisan affiliation. Of the 20 possible cross-tabs, Cornyn led in only 4 of them including “Republicans,” Romney Voters,” and “Somewhat Conservative.” The “Very Conservative” Texans do not approve of Cornyn.

Here are the questions from the PPP poll. We will have more analysis of the survey as additional results are released.

Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of President Barack Obama's job performance?

Approve …………………………………………………. 36%

Disapprove……………………………………………… 58%

Not sure ………………………………………………. 6%

Q2 Do you approve or disapprove of Governor Rick Perry's job performance?

Approve …………………………………………………. 48%

Disapprove……………………………………………… 44%

Not sure …………………………………………………. 9%

Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Greg Abbott?

Approve …………………………………………………. 40%

Disapprove……………………………………………… 27%

Not sure ………………………………………………. 33%

Favorable ……………………………………………….. 40%

Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 27%

Not sure …………………………………………………. 33%

Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion

of Wendy Davis?

Favorable ……………………………………………….. 33%

Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 47%

Not sure …………………………………………………. 21%

Q5 If the candidates for Governor this fall were Republican Greg Abbott and Democrat Wendy Davis, who would you vote for?

Greg Abbott ……………………………………………. 51%

Wendy Davis……………………………………………. 37%

Not sure …………………………………………………. 13%

Q6 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator John

Cornyn's job performance?

Approve ………………………………………………… 31%

Disapprove…………………………………………….. 40%

Not sure …………………………………………………30%

Q7 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of David Alameel?

Favorable ……………………………………………….. 12%

Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 21%

Not sure …………………………………………………. 67%

Q8 If the candidates for Senate this fall were Republican John Cornyn and Democrat David Alameel, who would you vote for?

John Cornyn …………………………………………… 49%

David Alameel………………………………………….32%

Not sure …………………………………………………. 20%

Q9 If the candidates for Lieutenant Governor this fall were Republican David Dewhurst and Democrat Leticia Van de Putte, who would you vote for?

David Dewhurst ………………………………………. 50%

Leticia Van de Putte……………………………………32%

Not sure …………………………………………………. 17%

Q10 If the candidates for Lieutenant Governor this fall were Republican Dan Patrick and Democrat Leticia Van de Putte, who would you vote for?

Dan Patrick …………………………………………….. 51%

Leticia Van de Putte……………………………………35%

Not sure …………………………………………………. 14%

Q11 If the candidates for state Land Commissioner this fall were Republican George P. Bush and Democrat John Cook, who would you vote for?

George P . Bush ………………………………………. 50%

John Cook………………………………………………. 32%

Not sure …………………………………………………. 18%

Q12 In the last presidential election, did you vote for Barack Obama or Mitt Romney?

Barack Obama…………………………………………39%

Mitt Romney………………………………………….. 53%

Someone else / Don't remember ……………….. 8%

Q13 Would you describe yourself as very liberal, somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat conservative, or very conservative?

Very liberal ………………………………………………8%

Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 17%

Moderate………………………………………………… 23%

Somewhat conservative……………………………. 29%

Very conservative ……………………………………. 23%

Q14 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.

Woman ………………………………………………….. 53%

Man……………………………………………………….. 47%

Q15 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican, press 2. If you are an independent or identify with another party, press 3.

Democrat ……………………………………………….. 32%

Republican ……………………………………………… 44%

Independent / Other………………………………….24%

Q16 If you are Hispanic, press 1. If white, press 2. If African-American, press 3. If other, press 4.

Hispanic …………………………………………………. 18%

White …………………………………………………….. 64%

African-American …………………………………….. 12%

Other……………………………………………………… 6%

Q17 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to 45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are older than 65, press 4.

18 to 29………………………………………………….. 12%

30 to 45………………………………………………….. 20%

46 to 65………………………………………………….. 43%

Older than 65 ………………………………………….. 25%

Q18 Mode

Phone ……………………………………………………. 80%

Internet ………………………………………………….. 20%

You can follow me on Twitter at @trowaman.

Share.

About Author

Joseph Vogas

Joseph was raised in Friendswood, Texas in North Galveston County. He went on to graduate from the University of North Texas with a degree in Political Science. After working for multiple campaigns, Joseph was able to work in the 83rd legislature in Austin in 2013. While retired from professional campaign work, Joseph enjoys sharing his knowledge of campaign data how to win elections in naturally unfriendly turf with others. Joseph is an avid archer and enjoys all things geek including Star Wars and DC Comics.

Leave a Reply

2015 © Skytop Publishing All Rights Reserved. Do not republish without express written permission.

Site designed and developed by well + done DESIGN

0 Flares Twitter 0 Facebook 0 Filament.io 0 Flares ×