Burnt Orange Report's Guide to Texas's 2012 State House Races: Part I

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Part I: Names, Nods, and Numbers

The 2012 State House elections here in Texas will have a huge impact on the next Legislative session. This is true not merely in the simple partisan breakdown of the lower chamber, but more importantly in the ideological make-up of the body and its collective willingness to consider bold solutions to the challenges facing Texas. While Democrats are poised to reclaim at least 6 to 10 seats (and possibly more depending on how individual races shake out), Republicans are extremely likely to continue to control the Speaker's gavel. However, the Republican primaries will determine what kind of representatives dominate the majority party — anti-spending zealots intent on cutting the budget until every public school and nursing home shuts down, or a more reasonable group of statesmen and women determined to find actual answers to the huge problems they'll face in the budget, education, public health and human services, and a host of other issues.

Today, we begin BOR's series on the State House elections with a look at who's running, the basic partisan voting trends of the districts, and early endorsements from five groups that give an indication of where the important primaries and general elections will be. 326 Democrats and Republicans are vying for 150 seats in the Texas Legislature this cycle. Due to redistricting and a spate of retirements, there are a lot of open seats and a lot of contested primaries. As Chaille Jolink noted recently, a lot of good Democrats and Republicans (yes, they exist) retired after this last session. It's hard to blame the moderate Republicans, who might rather retire than face brutal primaries from the extremists in their party who demand 100% ideological fealty.

The big questions are as follows. Who survives the contested Republican primaries — public servants willing to consider additional revenue to fund public education and public health, or anti-spending zealots who would rather close more schools and fire more teachers and spend their time railing against the Feds, rather than working for common sense solutions. Additionally, given that this is a Presidential year and Democrats tend to perform better in these cycles, how many seats can the D's take back? Can we reach 2008's high water mark of 74 seats? If not, can we pick up enough seats and work with a few sensible Republicans (surely they exist) to pro-actively address critical needs?

Below the fold you'll find a chart with every candidate running, the margin in the 2008 Presidential, 2008 SCOTX, 2010 Gubernatorial, and 2010 SCOTX elections, and a basic partisan rating of the district. I've also listed endorsements to date from five groups to give a sense of where the races stand at this point, and who has institutional support.

We aren't rating the races in terms of relative hotness yet: that comes in Part II, when we'll take a closer look at the more interesting primary and general election match-ups that will exert the most influence on the 2013 Legislative session.Metholodogy:

In terms of methodology, I've listed the margin in the 2008 Presidential election and the average of the three 2008 Supreme Court of Texas (SCOTX) races, as well as the margin in the 2010 Gubernatorial race and three 2010 SCOTX races, so you can see some relative partisan-ness of each district. I've also included SSVR%, or the percentage of reigstered voters with a Spanish surname. It's a way to gauge how Hispanic a given district is. Incumbents have an asterisk, in case — like many readers — you've never even heard of half of these people. Note that not all races have pithy comments or analysis. Some races were decided on filing day. Others just don't appear to be very contested. Others I don't know enough about yet to say anything remotely insightful.

Endorsements:

Obviously, hosts of local organizations endorse in these as well, so check candidates' websites for local chapters of statewide organizations. To provide a cross-section of endorsements to date, I've included the following entities:

    TLR: Texans for Lawsuit Reform. Republican, advocates for “tort reform,” i.e. denying Texans the opportunity to seek justice through civil trials.

    TFR: Texans for Fiscal Responsibility Ruin, aka the endorsing arm of Empower Texans, the right-wing arch-conservative group helmed by Michael Quinn Sullivan (aka MQS). Dedicated to opposing all government spending, revenue increases, organized civilization, etc. Won't stop until the Pink Dome is a smoldering pile of ashes at 1100 Congress Ave.

    TSTA: Texas State Teachers Association. Interesting mix of bipartisan endorsements, and an indicator of Republicans who may be open to sensible solutions to education funding.

    AFL-CIO: Texas labor organization, representing over 220,000 workers in Texas.


    Annie's List: Organization dedicated to electing more women, specifically Democratic women who are strong on women's issues. Endorsements are limited and come with strong financial and organizational support.

Race Ratings:

Races are rated as Safe R, Lean R, Tossup, Lean D, and Safe D. This determination was made purely on the benchmark numbers of President, Governor, and Supreme Court average, with an eye to the fact that this is a presidential year, which is usually better for Democrats. Seats that look even remotely close to flipping parties will be fodder for future posts. This is a baseline to get started. Yes, individual districts, candidates, and campaigns can vary. I welcome any candidate, campaign staffer, consultant or curious onlooker to question the methodology, but if you think a district has been incorrectly rated please be ready to back that up with facts about the candidates' viability, fundraising, exposure in the district, etc.


Dist. Candidates TLR TFR TSTA AFL-CIO Annie's List 08PREZ
08SCOTX
10GOV
10SCOTX
SSVR% Rating
1 R — George Lavender* R+40.1%
R+19.6%
R+24.8%
R+34.9%
1.8% Safe R
Notes: Uncontested.

2 R — George Alexander
R — Dan Flynn*
Flynn Flynn R+46.0%
R+32.3%
R+34.3%
R+48.0%
4.1% Safe R
Notes: Map originally paired incumbents Dan Flynn and Erwin Cain (currently HD-3). Cain opted to run for 62nd District Court instead.

3 R — Bob Bagley
R — Cecil Bell, Jr.
R — Troy Bonin
R+45.2%
R+40.2%
R+47.7%
R+59.0%
8.2% Safe R
Notes: Open since Cain was drawn out.

4 R — Lance Gooden*
R — Stuart Spitzer
Spitzer Gooden R+39.8%
R+28.8%
R+33.5%
R+45.9%
5.5% Safe R
Notes: Gooden upset Betty “Asians need easier names” Brown last cycle.

5 R — Bryan Hughes*
R — Mary Lookadoo
Hughes Lookadoo R+42.3%
R+29.6%
R+34.1%
R+44.0%
4.6% Safe R
Notes: Lookadoo's kind a great name, don't you think?

6 R — Leo Berman*
R — Matt Schaefer
R+37.5%
R+32.9%
R+39.6%
R+48.2%
5.3% Safe R
Notes: Berman is locked in an eternal struggle with Debbie Riddle for Biggest Racist in the State House.

7 R — Tommy Merritt
R — David Simpson*
Simpson Simpson Merritt R+40.6%
R+32.1%
R+37.6%
R+46.6%
3.6% Safe R
Notes: Merritt represented the district from 1997 to 2010, and was knocked out in a primary last cycle by — you guessed it — David Simpson. Merritt is back for a re-match against the ornery Tea Partier.

8 D — Charles Morgan
R — Byron Cook*
R — Bobby Vickery
Cook Vickery R+39.8%
R+24.9%
R+28.6%
R+42.0%
6.5% Safe R
Notes: The split between TLR and MQS makes this one to watch to see which side of the Republican special interests prevails.

9 R — Wayne Christian*
R — Christopher Paddie, Sr.
Christian Christian R+38.5%
R+21.9%
R+26.9%
R+35.2%
2.1% Safe R
Notes: Definitely one to watch, and one we'll be looking at in Part II. Redistricting changed Christian's district dramatically; his opponent is the mayor of much of the new turf.

10 R — Linda Bounds
R — T.J. Fabby
R — Jim Pitts*
R — Matthew Melton
Pitts Pitts R+42.0%
R+33.6%
R+35.8%
R+49.3%
10.7% Safe R
Notes: Pitts did the Lord's work last year trying to make the Republican budget less draconian and destructive of civilization. His great reward this year is three primary challengers.

11 R — Travis Clardy
R — Chuck Hopson*
R — Tony Sevilla
Hopson Clardy Hopson R+37.9%
R+27.4%
R+31.9%
R+44.3%
4.7% Safe R
Notes: Former Democrat Hopson has to survive another round of party primaries. He prevailed last year.

12 D — Robert Stem
R — Timothy Delasandro
R — Kyle Kacal
R — Chris Scotti
R — Tucker Anderson
R — Josh Tetens
R+20.3%
R+07.5%
R+10.3%
R+20.4%
10.4% Safe R
Notes: Open seat since incumbent Republican James White was drawn into HD-19.

13 R — Hal Hawkins
R — Lois Kolkhorst*
R+43.4%
R+31.7%
R+33.1%
R+47.3%
8.7% Safe R

14 D — Judy  Leunes
R — John Raney*
Raney R+22.5%
R+21.5%
R+24.1%
R+34.2%
12.5% Safe R
Notes: Raney won in a special election last fall. He's a former Brazos County Republican Party chair.

15 R — Rob Eissler*
R — Steven Toth
Toth R+47.1%
R+48.0%
R+48.2%
R+61.3%
6.5% Safe R
Notes: MQS and Co. are backing the challenger here, making this race one to watch just to see if they can pull off the ousting.

16 R — Brandon Creighton* Creighton Creighton R+54.0%
R+48.0%
R+52.7%
R+63.3%
8.0% Safe R
Notes: Uncontested.

17 D — Colin Guerra
R — Tim Kleinschmidt*
R+14.6%
R+03.7%
R+08.9%
R+17.5%
22.8% Safe R
Notes: The numbers don't look great for the Democrats, but given Kleinschmidt's lackluster record and a reinvigorated Bastrop County Democratic Party, this could pop for the blue team.

18 R — John Otto*
R — Dwayne Stovall
R+34.4%
R+20.6%
R+21.6%
R+37.1%
6.0% Safe R

19 R — Mike Hamilton*
R — James White*
White White Hamilton Hamilton R+45.8%
R+23.4%
R+36.6%
R+43.3%
2.6% Safe R
Notes: Hamilton and Ritter were drawn together into the 21st, but Hamilton is seeking re-election in the 19th against White, who was also drawn in. White was elected to HD-12 in 2010. He's an African-American Tea Partier.

20 R — Marsha Farney R+35.2%
R+31.8%
R+33.1%
R+43.1%
8.4% Safe R
Notes: Incumbent Charles Schwertner is running for the State Senate. Farney won a 2010 race to the SBOE, defeating a crazier social conservative in a Republican primary run-off. She used the seat as a stepping stone to this uncontested Legislative bid.

21 R — Daniel Miller
R — Allan Ritter*
Ritter Ritter R+43.9%
R+20.6%
R+35.2%
R+39.4%
5.5% Safe R
Notes: Former Democrat Ritter switched parties after the 2010 election. Now he faces his first Republican primary challenge.

22 D — Joe Deshotel* Deshotel Deshotel D+29.9%
D+35.8%
D+21.0%
D+18.6%
5.2% Safe D
Notes: Uncontested.

23 D — Craig Eiland*
R — Rachel Delgado
R — Bill Wallace
R — Wayne Faircloth
Delgado Eiland Eiland R+03.5%
D+08.0%
D+02.4%
R+06.9%
14.7% Tossup
Notes: The numbers don't look great, but Eiland's a long-time public servant who has great accomplishments to run on. I expect him to beat the benchmark numbers in his district. Perhaps the most important factor here is who wins the Republican primary.

24 D — Rusty Cates
R — Greg Bonnen
R — Heidi Thiess
R — Ryan Sitton
Bonnen R+39.8%
R+32.4%
R+36.6%
R+48.9%
10.3% Safe R
Notes: Incumbent Larry Taylor is running for the Senate. These people are running to replace him.

25 R — Dennis Bonnen* R+32.7%
R+21.0%
R+25.0%
R+38.2%
18.1% Safe R
Notes: Uncontested.

26 D — Vy Nguyen
R — Diana Miller
R — Jacquie Chaumette
R — Sonal Bhuchar
R — Rick Miller
Nguyen R+23.7%
R+24.9%
R+24.4%
R+39.7%
10.3% Safe R
Notes: Incumbent Charlie Howard is retiring. Also, anyone else get a thrill of voter confusion when two candidates with the same last name square off against each other?

27 D — Ron Reynolds*
R — Kris Allfrey
Reynolds Reynolds D+39.7%
D+39.5%
D+40.2%
D+33.5%
11.6% Safe D
Notes: Reynolds is lucky he didn't get much of a primary opponent given his recent arrest for barratry. Reynolds maintains his inocence.

28 R — John Zerwas* R+24.5%
R+25.1%
R+27.8%
R+40.8%
12.0% Safe R
Notes: Uncontested.

29 D — Doug Blatt
R — Ed Thompson
R — Eric Johnson
R — Debra Rosenthal-Ritter
R+26.0%
R+20.8%
R+23.9%
R+35.5%
15.3% Safe R
Notes: Incumbent Randy Weber is running for Congress. If Eric Johnson wins, he'll have a name twin on the other side of the aisle!

30 D — Alex Hernandez
R — Geanie Morrison*
R+32.7%
R+22.7%
R+31.9%
R+37.7%
29.9% Safe R
Notes: Morrison will win.

31 D — Ryan Guillen*
R — Ann Matthews
Guillen Guillen D+25.0%
D+36.3%
D+13.7%
D+09.6%
75.8% Safe D
Notes: Guillen will win.

32 R — Todd Hunter* Hunter Hunter R+13.8%
R+06.0%
R+17.7%
R+25.0%
36.6% Safe R
Notes: Uncontested.

33 R — Jim Pruitt
R — Scott Turner
Turner R+38.2%
R+37.9%
R+41.8%
R+54.3%
6.6% Safe R
Notes: HD-33 is currently held by Raul Torres, but he was drawn into HD-34 and elected to run in neither, rather than prove that Hispanic Republicans can't win primaries. Torres is mounting a failed State Senate campaign instead.

34 D — Abel Herrero
R — Connie Scott*
Herrero D+05.9%
D+19.1%
D+03.8%
D+02.9%
60.1% Lean D
Notes: Another 2010 rematch. Solomon Ortiz Jr. was also drawn into this seat and elected not to run. As noted above, Republican Raul Torres was also drawn in.

35 D — Oscar Longoria
D — Gus Ruiz
Longoria D+27.5%
D+33.7%
D+24.1%
D+21.3%
73.7% Safe D
Notes: Republican incumbent Jose Aliseda isn't running, as he was drawn into HD-43 and would have lost there, too. Too bad, it would have been fun to beat him.

36 D — Sergio  Munoz Jr* Munoz Jr Munoz Jr D+46.4%
D+52.3%
D+39.7%
D+37.3%
82.6% Safe D
Notes: Uncontested.

37 D — Alejandro Dominguez
D — Rene Oliveira*
Oliveira Oliviera D+36.1%
D+43.8%
D+23.8%
D+21.8%
77.2% Safe D

38 D — Eddie Lucio III*
R — Alex Torres
Lucio III Lucio III D+30.6%
D+38.9%
D+20.1%
D+16.9%
77.0% Safe D
Notes: Lucio III will win.

39 D — Joseph Campos
D — Mando Martinez*
R — Joel De Los Santos
Martinez Martinez D+45.4%
D+51.8%
D+44.6%
D+41.5%
81.4% Safe D

40 D — T.C. Betancourt
D — Terry Canales
D — Augustin “Auggie” Hernandez, Jr.  
D — Robert Pena
Canales D+50.3%
D+57.7%
D+47.7%
D+45.8%
85.4% Safe D
Notes: Incumbent turncoat Republican Aaron Pena's seat. He's also not running, since he's evidently too much of a wuss to run and lose. Good riddance. Go tweet about it.

41 D — Bobby Guerra
R — Miriam Martinez
R — Armando Vera
Guerra D+14.8%
D+21.9%
D+05.1%
R+00.6%
67.8% Lean D
Notes: Incumbent Veronica Gonzales chose to retire rather than run again.

42 D — Richard Raymond* Raymond Raymond D+41.7%
D+56.5%
D+53.8%
D+43.8%
85.8% Safe D
Notes: Uncontested.

43 D — Yvonne Gonzalez Toureilles
D — Gabriel Zamora
R — J.M. Lozano*
R — Bill Wilson, II
R — William Willie Vaden
Lozano Gonzales Toureilles Gonzales Toureilles Gonzales Toureilles R+03.5%
D+10.2%
R+06.2%
R+07.8%
57.5% Tossup
Notes: Newest Republican turncoat JM Lozano will likely be Victor Carrillo'ed in his primary. Fun fact: Jose Aliseda was also drawn into this district. Former Rep. Gonzalez-Toureilles is running to reclaim the seat for the D's.

44 R — John Kuempel* R+31.6%
R+27.5%
R+32.1%
R+44.2%
24.9% Safe R
Notes: Uncontested.

45 D — John Adams
R — Jason Isaac*
Isaac Adams R+04.9%
R+04.7%
R+10.4%
R+20.2%
20.7% Lean R
Notes: Not a typo — John Adams, Dripping Springs ISD member, is running against serial school-defunder Jason Isaac.

46 D — Dawnna Dukes* Dukes Dukes D+55.5%
D+52.9%
D+53.4%
D+47.0%
18.1% Safe D
Notes: Uncontested.

47 D — Chris Frandsen
R — Ryan Downton
R — Paul Workman*
Workman Workman Frandsen R+09.1%
R+14.3%
R+15.8%
R+25.7%
7.4% Safe R
Notes: Workman got a much more Republican district in the map-drawing, but has to face a primary challenger and a general election challenger.

48 D — Donna Howard*
R — Robert Thomas
Howard Howard D+23.2%
D+16.7%
D+19.1%
D+07.3%
13.0% Safe D
Notes: Apparently Thomas wanted to run as a Democrat, but since he lives in Howard's district, is running as a Republican instead.

49 D — Elliott Naishtat* Naishtat Naishtat D+49.4%
D+42.8%
D+50.1%
D+40.0%
11.0% Safe D
Notes: Uncontested.

50 D — Mark Strama* Strama Strama D+22.2%
D+18.5%
D+15.5%
D+05.7%
13.3% Safe D
Notes: Uncontested.

51 D — Eddie Rodriguez* Rodriguez Rodriguez D+62.5%
D+60.4%
D+60.3%
D+53.9%
36.2% Safe D
Notes: Uncontested.

52 R — Larry Gonzales* R+05.7%
R+07.7%
R+16.7%
R+24.8%
15.9% Lean R
Notes: Uncontested. Somewhat of a disappointment not to see the Democrats mount a strong challenger here in the district that Diana Maldonado won in 2008.

53 R — Harvey Hilderbran*
R — Cary Wise
R+46.0%
R+41.0%
R+43.7%
R+53.5%
19.9% Safe R

54 D — Claudia Brown
R — Jimmie Don Aycock*
Brown R+03.2%
R+01.4%
R+20.2%
R+26.4%
11.4% Lean R
Notes: This race has a chance given the demographics of the district and the potential strong African-American turnout. There's a pretty steep swing between Presidential and Gubernatorial years, however.

55 R — John Alaniz
R — Ralph Sheffield*
Sheffield R+22.5%
R+16.3%
R+23.8%
R+39.0%
12.4% Safe R

56 R — Charles “Doc” Anderson*
R — Chris DeCluitt
DeCluitt R+33.2%
R+27.3%
R+23.9%
R+38.1%
10.2% Safe R

57 R — Trent Ashby
R — Marva Beck*
Beck R+38.2%
R+20.1%
R+26.6%
R+36.6%
5.8% Safe R
Notes: Beck upset Jim Dunnam last cycle.

58 R — Rob Orr* R+48.1%
R+36.0%
R+37.6%
R+52.2%
7.9% Safe R
Notes: Uncontested.

59 D — Bill Norris
R — J.D. Sheffield
R — Sid Miller*
R — Mike Jones
R+44.3%
R+33.1%
R+35.2%
R+47.2%
9.3% Safe R
Notes: Miller's the driving force for the sonogram law in the State House. Don't hold your breath for his constituents to vote him out.

60 R — Jim Keffer* R+57.3%
R+45.1%
R+48.2%
R+57.7%
7.2% Safe R
Notes: Uncontested.

61 R — Phil King* King R+55.3%
R+47.2%
R+48.7%
R+60.8%
5.0% Safe R
Notes: Uncontested.

62 D — Eristeo Perez
R — Larry Phillips*
Phillips R+38.4%
R+28.0%
R+35.2%
R+44.7%
3.3% Safe R
Notes: Phillips will win.

63 R — Tan Parker* Parker R+38.0%
R+39.2%
R+42.0%
R+54.0%
6.1% Safe R
Notes: Uncontested.

64 D — Mary Brown
R — Mike Brucia
R — Myra Crownover*
Crownover R+15.1%
R+14.5%
R+20.1%
R+32.7%
7.6% Safe R

65 D — Gary Brown
R — Mike Hennefer
R — David Loerwald
R — Ron Simmons
R+13.0%
R+14.1%
R+22.1%
R+33.4%
8.4% Safe R
Notes: Incumbent Burt Solomons is retiring.

66 R — Van Taylor* Taylor R+18.5%
R+23.1%
R+27.3%
R+40.8%
4.3% Safe R
Notes: Uncontested.

67 R — Meredith Jeran Akers
R — John Pitchford
R — Jeff Leach
R — Jon Cole
R — Roger Burns
Leach R+19.5%
R+22.3%
R+23.6%
R+37.4%
5.6% Safe R
Notes: Incumbent Jerry Madden is retiring.

68 D — Lanhom Odom
R — David Isbell
R — Paul Braswell
R — Trent McKnight
R — Fred Skeen
R — Drew Springer
R+54.7%
R+39.1%
R+40.5%
R+49.8%
11.6% Safe R
Notes: Incumbent Rick Hardcastle is retiring.

69 R — James Frank R+43.0%
R+31.0%
R+40.4%
R+48.8%
8.2% Safe R
Notes: Incumbent Lanham Lyne is retiring after 1 term. He won the seat after Democrat David Farabee retired.

70 R — Scott Sanford
R — Bracy Wilson
Sanford R+33.6%
R+34.5%
R+37.4%
R+49.2%
7.1% Safe R
Notes: Incumbent Ken Paxton is running for the State Senate.

71 R — Susan King* King R+45.0%
R+37.1%
R+42.8%
R+50.8%
14.3% Safe R
Notes: Uncontested.

72 R — Drew Darby* Darby R+45.7%
R+35.8%
R+44.6%
R+51.6%
23.7% Safe R
Notes: Uncontested.

73 R — Doug Miller*
R — Rob Smith
R+50.7%
R+49.3%
R+50.3%
R+60.6%
13.5% Safe R

74 D — Robert Garza
D — Efrain V.  Valdez
D — Poncho Nevarez
R — Dora Alcala
R — Thomas Kincaid
Nevarez Dual: Nevarez/Garza D+16.7%
D+25.5%
D+12.7%
D+11.6%
67.6% Safe D
Notes: Incumbent Pete Gallego is running for Congress. Kincaid is not to be confused with the recently deceased painter.

75 D — Hector Enriquez
D — Mary Gonzalez
D — Tony San Roman
Gonzalez Gonzalez Gonzalez D+48.9%
D+53.0%
D+40.2%
D+34.1%
81.0% Safe D
Notes: Incumbent Chente Quintanilla is running for El Paso County Commissioner.

76 D — Naomi Gonzalez* Gonzalez Gonzalez D+51.2%
D+57.9%
D+50.9%
D+44.1%
80.7% Safe D
Notes: Uncontested.

77 D — Aaron Barraza
D — Marisa Marquez*
Marquez D+29.6%
D+34.5%
D+24.0%
D+18.2%
62.3% Safe D
Notes: Stay tuned for Part II on this one.

78 D — Joe Moody
R — Dee Margo*
Moody D+11.6%
D+15.5%
D+02.1%
R+03.6%
49.6% Tossup
Notes: It's a Moody-Margo re-re-match!

79 D — Joe Pickett* Pickett Pickett D+29.9%
D+35.9%
D+20.4%
D+13.4%
69.0% Safe D
Notes: Is anyone else a big fan of Joe Pickett's hair, or is that just me?

80 D — Jerry Garza
D — Tracy King*
King King D+33.0%
D+43.0%
D+29.1%
D+25.1%
78.5% Safe D
Notes: We'll look at this race more in-depth in Part II.

81 R — Tryon Lewis* R+49.9%
R+39.3%
R+47.7%
R+51.7%
35.3% Safe R
Notes: Uncontested.

82 R — Tom Craddick* R+56.0%
R+50.9%
R+56.3%
R+62.4%
25.1% Safe R
Notes: He's still around!

83 R — Delwin Jones
R — Charles Perry*
Perry Perry Jones R+50.0%
R+44.4%
R+44.2%
R+55.0%
22.5% Safe R
Notes: Another 2010 rematch. Perry unseated Jones. Jones had served in the Lege for 30 years.

84 R — John Frullo* R+27.1%
R+26.7%
R+28.4%
R+41.1%
24.7% Safe R
Notes: Uncontested.

85 D — Dora Olivo
R — Lee Duggan
R — Phil Stephenson
Olivo R+18.0%
R+09.3%
R+08.2%
R+24.5%
25.3% Safe R
Notes: Incumbent Jim Landtroop got drawn into the 88th (Chisum's district; he's running for Railroad Commissioner). Olivo is a former Representative who lost in the 2010 primary to Ron Reynolds.

86 R — John Smithee* R+61.8%
R+56.5%
R+55.2%
R+66.4%
14.3% Safe R
Notes: Uncontested.

87 D — Abel Bosquez
R — Four Price*
Bosquez R+49.6%
R+42.2%
R+45.1%
R+56.0%
18.4% Safe R
Notes: Yeah, apparently “Four Price” is a name?!

88 R — Ken King
R — Gary Walker
R — Mac Smith
R — Jim Landtroop*
Landtroop Landtroop R+56.6%
R+46.2%
R+47.0%
R+57.0%
28.8% Safe R
Notes: Incumbent Warren Chisum is running for Railroad Commissioner. Landtroop moved over from HD-85 to run here.

89 R — Jodie Laubenberg* R+29.2%
R+30.0%
R+33.2%
R+44.7%
6.7% Safe R
Notes: Uncontested.

90 D — Lon Burnam*
D — Carlos Vasquez
Burnam Burnam D+39.5%
D+46.0%
D+41.9%
D+36.0%
47.9% Safe D
Notes: Burnam, a staunch progressive, has drawn a challenger in Vasquez, a former principle and Fort Worth school board member. The district is heavily Hispanic, and some leaders in the area chafe at being represented by Burnam, one of the last Democratic anglos in the House.

91 R — Stephanie  Klick
R — Lady Theresa Thombs
R — Kenneth M Ken  Sapp
R — Charles Scoma
Klick R+31.2%
R+27.9%
R+31.6%
R+44.3%
10.0% Safe R
Notes: Incumbent Kelly Hancock is running for State Senate.

92 R — Roger Fisher
R — Jonathan  Stickland
Stickland R+19.5%
R+18.0%
R+25.1%
R+36.9%
8.0% Safe R
Notes: Incumbent Todd Smith is running for State Senate… against Kelly Hancock!

93 R — Patricia Pat  Carlson
R — Matt Krause
R — Barbara Nash*
Nash Krause R+15.9%
R+15.0%
R+20.9%
R+32.2%
11.5% Safe R
Notes: Another split between TLR and MQS, so this will be one to explore in Part II.

94 R — Trina Lanza
R — Diane Patrick*
Patrick R+20.1%
R+18.5%
R+22.5%
R+34.0%
7.6% Safe R

95 D — Nicole Collier
D — Jesse Gaines
D — Dulani “Jamal Jones”  Masimini
R — Monte Mitchell
Collier Collier D+52.3%
D+53.8%
D+49.1%
D+44.5%
8.8% Safe D
Notes: Incumbent Marc Veasey is running for Congress.

96 R — Mike Leyman
R — Bill Zedler*
Zedler Zedler Leyman R+16.5%
R+13.7%
R+16.4%
R+25.5%
9.2% Safe R
Notes: I see Bill Zedler's car around Austin a lot. He has a bumper sticker for humself on the back.

97 D — Gary Grassia
R — Craig Goldman
R — Chris Hatch
R — Susan  Todd
Goldman R+16.2%
R+15.5%
R+16.5%
R+30.7%
8.2% Safe R
Notes: Incumbent Mark Shelton is running for State Senate.

98 D — Shane Hardin
R — Giovanni Capriglione
R — Vicki Truitt*
Truitt Capriglione R+42.9%
R+44.7%
R+47.9%
R+59.0%
5.0% Safe R
Notes: TLR and MQS are on opposite sides of this one; should be another bellwether for the Republican electorate's ideological tilt.

99 D — Michael McClure
R — Charlie Geren*
Geren R+25.5%
R+21.3%
R+25.4%
R+38.6%
11.5% Safe R

100 D — Eric Johnson* Johnson Johnson D+55.0%
D+56.0%
D+53.0%
D+46.0%
13.0% Safe D
Notes: Uncontested.

101 D — Vickie Barnett
D — Paula Pierson
D — Chris Turner
R — Dick Elkins
Turner Pierson D+23.7%
D+26.1%
D+23.4%
D+17.2%
15.3% Safe D
Notes: This will be one of the biggest Democratic primaries to watch this year, as two former Reps, Pierson and Turner, and newcomer Vickie Barnett square off for this Democratic seat. Turner represented part of the district when it was in his old district, HD-96. Pierson represented part of the district when it was in her old district, HD-93. The current “HD-101” in name only is in Mesquite and represented by Cindy Burkett, who is now running in what will be HD-113.

102 D — Rich Hancock
R — Stefani Carter*
R+05.5%
R+07.4%
R+09.2%
R+26.3%
6.9% Lean R

103 D — Rafael Anchia* Anchia Anchia D+36.0%
D+38.1%
D+38.1%
D+28.2%
36.9% Safe D
Notes: Uncontested.

104 D — Roberto Alonzo* Alonzo Alonzo D+38.5%
D+45.2%
D+42.2%
D+35.6%
48.1% Safe D
Notes: Uncontested.

105 D — Rosemary Robbins
R — Linda Harper Brown*
Robbins R+06.5%
R+02.6%
R+09.0%
R+21.1%
18.1% Lean R
Notes: Robbins, an educator, takes a tilt at LHB. Will the incumbent's ethics violations stick? Can Robbins make a case that she's better for the families in this rapidly growing Metroplex district? And is Harper-Brown still driving that Benz she got as a “gift” from a company who she helped make big profits for in the Lege?

106 R — Pat Fallon
R — Amber Fulton
Fallon R+28.2%
R+28.2%
R+36.7%
R+47.4%
7.5% Safe R
Notes: Incumbent Rodney Anderson was drawn into the 105th, said he was running for State Senate, then he dropped out. In any case, seat's open.

107 D — Robert Miklos
R — Kenneth Sheets*
Sheets Sheets Miklos R+05.5%
R+02.7%
R+04.6%
R+19.4%
12.6% Lean R
Notes: Former Rep. Miklos lost to Burkett in 2010 in the old HD-101. He's running against first-termer Sheets, who defeated Allen Vaught last cycle.

108 R — Dan Branch* Branch R+08.9%
R+16.3%
R+14.0%
R+32.6%
9.0% Safe R
Notes: Uncontested.

109 D — Helen Giddings* Giddings Giddings D+59.7%
D+60.2%
D+59.1%
D+56.2%
8.2% Safe D
Notes: Uncontested.

110 D — Cedric Davis
D — Larry Taylor
D — Toni Rose
Rose D+75.5%
D+77.3%
D+76.3%
D+75.1%
17.3% Safe D
Notes: Incumbent Barbara Mallory Caraway is running for Congress. Also, this Larry Taylor is not to be confused with State Senate candidate and former Rep. Larry Taylor. Different guy.

111 D — Yvonne Davis* Davis Davis D+51.0%
D+51.8%
D+50.8%
D+46.9%
10.7% Safe D
Notes: Uncontested.

112 R — Angie Chen Button* R+10.8%
R+09.3%
R+13.1%
R+25.9%
10.8% Safe R
Notes: Uncontested.

113 R — Cindy Burkett* Burkett R+06.9%
R+04.1%
R+07.6%
R+17.8%
12.0% Lean R
Notes: Incumbents Burkett and Joe “Double Dip” Driver were drawn together; Driver pled guilty to double-dipping and is not seeking re-election.

114 D — Carol Kent
R — Bill Keffer
R — David Boone
R — Jason Villalba
Keffer Kent Kent Kent R+05.7%
R+09.8%
R+09.5%
R+28.5%
7.0% Lean R
Notes: Incumbent Will Hartnett is retiring. Former State Rep. Carol Kent is making a bid for the district.

115 D — Mary Clare Fabishak
R — Bennett Ratliff
R — Lib Grimmett
R — Matt Rinaldi
R — Steve Nguyen
R — Andy Olivo
Rinaldi R+11.0%
R+12.9%
R+17.6%
R+31.5%
9.8% Safe R
Notes: Incumbent Jim Jackson is retiring.

116 D — Trey Martinez Fischer* TMF TMF D+21.0%
D+22.4%
D+19.0%
D+07.8%
50.5% Safe D
Notes: Uncontested.

117 D — Philip Cortez
D — Ken Mireles
D — Tina Torres
R — John Garza*
Cortez Torres D+06.0%
D+08.2%
R+01.0%
R+12.5%
50.8% Tossup
Notes: Incumbent Garza won in 2010, ousting David Leibowitz. Now there's a heated Democratic primary to defeat him this November.

118 D — Joe Farias*
R — Robert Casias
Farias Farias D+11.2%
D+18.8%
D+12.2%
D+02.5%
58.4% Safe D
Notes: Safe D district.

119 D — Roland Gutierrez*
R — Anna Campos
Gutierrez Gutierrez D+18.2%
D+23.9%
D+17.8%
D+08.2%
50.9% Safe D
Notes: Safe D district.

120 D — Ruth Jones McClendon* McClendon McClendon D+26.8%
D+26.8%
D+20.5%
D+10.6%
29.4% Safe D
Notes: Uncontested.

121 R — Matt Beebe
R — Joe Straus*
Beebe R+18.6%
R+21.8%
R+21.5%
R+37.7%
21.1% Safe R
Notes: MQS and his cronies are taking on Straus for being insufficiently willing to kow-tow to their draconian anti-government demands. If they're somehow successful, that could send a strong message that relatively sane moderates have no place in the Republican party. However, this will hopefully be a big, embarrassing loss for Texans for Fiscal Ruin.

122 R — Lyle Larson* R+31.2%
R+35.4%
R+36.0%
R+49.9%
18.1% Safe R
Notes: Uncontested.

123 D — Mike Villarreal* Villarreal Villarreal D+20.4%
D+22.2%
D+21.7%
D+09.5%
53.9% Safe D
Notes: Uncontested.

124 D — Jose Menendez* Menendez Menendez D+20.6%
D+22.8%
D+16.8%
D+05.5%
53.8% Safe D
Notes: Uncontested.

125 D — Delicia Herrera
D — Justin  Rodriguez
R — Alma Perez Jackson
Rodriguez Rodriguez D+17.4%
D+20.8%
D+15.0%
D+03.7%
58.7% Safe D
Notes: Incumbent Joaquin Castro is running for Congress.

126 R — Patricia Harless* R+24.4%
R+23.8%
R+26.6%
R+40.0%
13.9% Safe R
Notes: Uncontested.

127 D — Cody Pogue
R — Dan Huberty*
R — Bobby Jordan
Pogue R+36.3%
R+34.5%
R+34.2%
R+49.6%
10.6% Safe R

128 R — Wayne Smith* R+40.5%
R+31.0%
R+36.4%
R+48.7%
15.5% Safe R
Notes: Uncontested.

129 R — John Davis*
R — Mary Huls
R+25.5%
R+23.2%
R+23.1%
R+40.2%
12.5% Safe R

130 R — Allen Fletcher* R+48.6%
R+47.1%
R+45.9%
R+61.0%
9.7% Safe R
Notes: Uncontested.

131 D — Wanda Adams
D — Alma Allen*
Allen Allen Allen D+63.7%
D+64.2%
D+66.1%
D+61.1%
17.1% Safe D
Notes: This is an interesting primary and one we'll explore further in Part II.

132 R — Randy Brown
R — Bill Callegari*
Callegari R+20.0%
R+18.6%
R+22.2%
R+35.1%
18.0% Safe R
Notes: Anyone else want to make “Cabinet of Dr. Caligari” jokes about the incumbent? Any other Weimar cinema fans out there?

133 R — Jim Murphy*
R — Ann Witt
Murphy R+30.4%
R+34.9%
R+27.1%
R+49.3%
6.7% Safe R
Notes: Murphy and incumbent Beverly Wooley were drawn together; she retired.

134 D — Ann Johnson
R — Sarah Davis*
Johnson Johnson R+05.9%
R+13.1%
D+03.3%
R+23.8%
7.7% Tossup
Notes: This promises to be one of the more important and exciting general election match-ups. More in Part II.

135 D — Paul Morgan
R — Gary Elkins*
R+21.8%
R+20.8%
R+18.9%
R+34.1%
16.0% Safe R
Notes: Elkins will win.

136 D — Matt Stillwell
R — Tony Dale
R — Paul Matthews
Dale Dale R+05.8%
R+10.3%
R+15.6%
R+23.7%
10.3% Lean R
Notes: Incumbent Beverly Wooley is retiring and the district “moved” from Houston to Williamson County.

137 D — Joseph Carlos  Madden
D — Gene Wu
D — Sarah Winkler
D — Jamaal Smith
R — M.J. Khan
Dual: Madden / Smith D+25.5%
D+26.2%
D+23.3%
D+11.0%
19.9% Safe D
Notes: Incumbent Scott Hochberg is retiring, and a slew of strong Democrats are running to replace him.

138 R — Dwayne Bohac*
R — Whet Smith
Bohac Bohac R+19.4%
R+18.6%
R+17.1%
R+33.6%
19.1% Safe R

139 D — Sylvester Turner*
R — Sam Brocato
Turner Turner D+51.5%
D+52.7%
D+49.8%
D+42.7%
15.3% Safe D
Notes: Turner will win.

140 D — Armando Walle* Walle Walle D+33.0%
D+43.4%
D+42.8%
D+34.5%
50.7% Safe D
Notes: Uncontested.

141 D — Senfronia Thompson*
R — Michael Bunch
Thompson Thompson D+70.9%
D+71.5%
D+70.0%
D+67.8%
14.0% Safe D
Notes: Thompson will win.

142 D — Harold V. Dutton* Dutton Dutton D+56.9%
D+59.1%
D+54.4%
D+50.2%
16.7% Safe D
Notes: Uncontested.

143 D — Ana Hernandez Luna*
R — Frank Salazar
R — Doug Weiskopf
Hernandez Luna Hernandez Luna D+28.9%
D+41.3%
D+39.2%
D+30.9%
49.7% Safe D
Notes: Hernandez Luna is a rising star in the House. One of the most moving moments in the 2011 session came when she related her own story of coming to this country as an undocumented immigrant, stating “I am not a problem that must be handled, I am a human.” Watch it here.

144 D — Mary Ann Perez
D — Kevin J. Risner
D — Ornaldo Ybarra
R — Gilbert Pena
R — Daniel Pineda
Pineda Perez Perez R+03.0%
D+09.8%
D+07.5%
R+03.9%
48.2% Tossup
Notes: Incumbent Ken Legler filed, then withdrew. Open seat!

145 D — Carol Alvarado* Alvarado Alvarado D+15.1%
D+25.5%
D+25.6%
D+11.9%
51.7% Safe D
Notes: Uncontested.

146 D — Al Edwards
D — Borris Miles*
Miles Miles D+56.8%
D+55.7%
D+56.9%
D+49.3%
9.1% Safe D
Notes: Yep, they're running against each other. Again.

147 D — Garnet Coleman*
D — Ray Hill
R — John Faulk
Coleman Coleman D+61.4%
D+60.8%
D+62.9%
D+55.7%
14.1% Safe D
Notes: Coleman, a progressive hero in the State House, is being challenged by a longtime LGBT activist. Coleman has authored and filed reams of LGBT-equality legislation. This challenge is, frankly, non-sensical.

148 D — Jessica Farrar* Farrar Farrar D+16.0%
D+21.2%
D+25.3%
D+07.2%
39.5% Safe D
Notes: Uncontested.

149 D — Hubert Vo*
R — Diane Williams
R — Jack Lee
R — Don Mullins
Vo Vo D+11.6%
D+13.2%
D+08.8%
R+02.6%
15.8% Lean D
Notes: I expect Vo to win re-election since this is a Presidential year, but the Republican SCOTX average should give Democrats pause and make sure that he's got the resources to compete in the fall and next cycle.

150 R — Debbie Riddle*
R — James Wilson
Wilson R+35.9%
R+33.3%
R+36.0%
R+49.5%
11.6% Safe R
Notes: Riddle is an embarrassment to the people of Texas with her staunchly anti-Hispanic, xenophobic rhetoric. I wish the people of her district felt the same way.

::

Ok. That's Part I.

Part II, coming in the next week, will focus on interesting primaries and general elections around the state. In the meantime, what races are you watching in the primary and general in your area? Any fun candidate anecdotes? And of course, most importantly, who's got the most yard signs?!  

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About Author

Katherine Haenschen

Katherine Haenschen is a PhD candidate at the University of Texas, where she studies political participation on digital media. She previously managed successful candidate, issue, voter registration, and GOTV campaigns in Central Texas. She is also a fan of UCONN women's basketball and breakfast tacos.

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