|
Wed Apr 18, 2012 at 02:30 PM CDT
|
The 2012 State Senate elections here in Texas will be important, no doubt. Due to redistricting, all 31 seats are on the ballot this year. While there are only a handful of races that will have any major impact on the partisan and ideological swing of the upper chamber, nevertheless Texans should expect the upper chamber to tilt rightward in the coming session, due in part to redistricting, and also to the efforts of right-wing groups to rid their party of moderates.
However, two competitive GOP primaries will give a clear indication of the direction of the modern-day Republican Party of Texas, and largely determine to what degree the entire chamber will tilt even more ideologically conservative. Make no mistake, next year's Senate will be further to the right than our current one, due several retirements of more moderate Republicans, who in turn will be replaced by more right-wing members of the party. Of late, the Republican party has been dominated by an alphabet soup of conservative activist groups -- TLR, TAL, TRL, the NRA, YCT's, and the infamous MQS, Michael Quinn Sullivan, of Texans for Fiscal Ruin, a deeply right-wing anti-tax organization that won't stop until the entire state government shuts down. In SD-9, these groups tend to be backing the more right-wing Kelly Hancock over the more moderate Todd Smith. Arguably Smith is the more competent, capable public servant, yet he doesn't always kow-tow to the Republican purity trolls.
Additionally, the one genuinely competitive race -- SD-10, featuring incumbent Democrat Wendy Davis and Republican challenger Mark Shelton -- which will either help the Democrats hold that crucial 12th seat, or slip back to a slim 11 seat caucus that needs lock-step voting to block the Republicans via the two-thirds rule. The Davis-Shelton race is one of the most important, must-win races for the Democrats this year, and should be a high profile affair post primary season.
The Texas Senate will see at least four new members next year due to retirements -- Republicans Steve Ogden, Florence Shapiro, Chris Harris, and Mike Jackson are all stepping down. Additionally, Republican incumbent Jeff Wentworth has a real challenge in the form of Elizabeth Ames Jones and Dr. Donna Campbell, both of whom charge the Senator with being too moderate. There's a handful of other less-likely primary upsets on the Republican side, and of course the Davis race will go down to the wire. Regardless, there will be several new faces in the Senate -- though it's likely none will be truly new to the Pink Dome, as most are State Reps.
The question is which power faction prevails in key GOP Senate primaries. The race to succeed Chris Harris in SD-9, and the three-way involving SD-25 will demonstrate whether center-right Republicans can still win a primary in Texas, or if the far-right conservatives have taken over the party's nominating process.
Below the fold you'll find a chart with every candidate running, the incumbent's years in office, and the margin in the 2008 Presidential, 2008 SCOTX, 2010 Gubernatorial, and 2010 SCOTX elections, and our rating of the races. Since this is Texas, we're rating them in Scoville units -- or, in laymen's terms, if this race was a chile pepper, how hot of a chile pepper would the race be? |
|
|
| Below is a list of every candidate filed in the 2012 State Senate Republican and Democratic primaries. I've rated each race according to its hotness in Scoville units, or how chile peppers' heat is measured. Basically, in descending order of hotness:
Pepper Spray! Weapons-grade pepper spray is hotter than almost any pepper known to man. Expect an angry, vitriolic, aggressive race.
Habanero! Hot hot hot! These races will be fiercely contested between several excellent candidates, in the primary or in November.
Jalapeno Popper: Spicy entertainment. These races can always be hotter than expected, depending on what's in the filling and how long it's been in the deep fryer.
Green Bell Pepper. No measurable heat.
Peppermint Patty: So not hot, it's almost cold.
In terms of methodology, I've listed the margin in the 2008 Presidential election and the average of the three 2008 Supreme Court of Texas (SCOTX) races, as well as the margin in the 2010 Gubernatorial race and three 2010 SCOTX races, so you can see some relative partisan-ness of each district. I've also added the January 2012 TEC reports to gauge how much funding these folks have available. Incumbents have an asterisk, in case -- like many readers -- you've never even heard of half of these incumbent Republicans.
::
| Burnt Orange Report's Guide to Texas's 2012 State Senate Races |
| Senate District | Democratic Candidates | Republican Candidates | Jan. 17 TEC Reports: Raise, COH, Loans | '08 Prez
'08 SCOTX | '10 Gov
'10 SCOTX | RATING |
| 1 | Stephen H. Russell | Kevin Eltife* | Russell: Raised $0; $1,500 COH; $1,500 Loans
Eltife: $219K; $1.4M COH | R+39
R+27 | R+32
R+41 | Green Bell Pepper | About The Race:
Nothing to see here. Deep Red district with non-funded Democratic challenger. At least we put a name on the ballot.
|
| 2 | | Bob Deuell* | Friends Of Bob Deuell: Raised $116K; $225K COH
| R+22
R+14 | R+19
R+31 | Peppermint Patty | About The Race:
Deuell won on the filing deadline.
|
| 3 | | Tammy Blair, Robert Nichols* | Blair: Raised $2,876; $2,500 on hand.
Nichols: Raised $310K; $378K COH | R+43
R+25 | R+33
R+43 | Green Bell Pepper | About The Race:
Nichols was elected in 2007, has a long history of Republican activism, and is ranked one of the most conservative members of the Lege. Fun fact: Nichols worked his way through Lamar University by selling fireworks. Blair is the chair of the Tyler Tea Party; she was inspired to run for office by an exchange between Obama & Joe the Plumber.
|
| 4 | | Michael Galloway, Tommy Williams* | Galloway: Raised $0; $2,505 COH
Texans for Tommy Williams: Raised $265K; $676K COH | R+34
R+29 | R+36
R+46 | Jalapeno Popper | About The Race:
The significantly better-funded Williams shouldn't have too much of a problem here, but the history of his challenger makes this race potentially interesting. Galloway represented the district in the late 90's, and had 100% attendance record. He ousted a Dem in a southeast Texas district that had been Democratic for 100 years. Galloway says the incumbent, Wlliams, is not conservative enough. Williams got a failing grade from Empower Texans for not opposing all spending ever. For instance, Williams sponsored SB20, which would have given tax-funded grants to convert vehicles to natural gas. Quelle horreur.
|
| 5 | | Ben Bius, Charles Schwertner | Bius: Raised $17K; $8.7K COH
Texans for Charles Schwertner: Raised $248K; $249K COH; $140K Loans | R+20
R+18 | R+23
R+33 | Habanero! | About The Race:
The race to replace retiring senator Steve Ogden looks fairly clear-cut at this point. Schwertner currently represents of HD 20; he won the open seat in 2010 after Dan Gattis retired to (eventually not) run for State Senate. TLR, MQS, and the YCT's are all lining up behind Schwertner. His opponent, Ben Bius, is a frequent also-ran; he was the Republican nominee in HD-18 in 1998 and 2000, and ran against Odgen last time.
|
| 6 | Mario V. Gallegos, Jr.* | R.W. Bray | Gallegos: Raised $131K; $111K COH
Bray Filed for office March 9; no TEC reports yet. | D+27
D+38 | D+36
D+26 | Jalapeno Popper | About The Race:
This should be an easy hold for Gallegos, but his challenger makes the race at least marginally interesting. Republican Rasuali "R.W." Bray is an African-American veteran who supports pay increases for teachers. Wrong party, dude!
|
| 7 | Sam "Tejas" Texas | Dan Patrick* | Texas: Raised $0; $0 COH
Patrick: Raised $0K; $0K COH; $116K Loans
Texans for Dan Patrick: Raised $2K; $1M COH; $105K Loans | R+33
R+32 | R+32
R+47 | Jalapeno Popper | About The Race:
The Democrat is a perpetual candidate who previously sought office for Harris County Commissioner, State Rep, State Senator, and US Congress. He is running against Dan Patrick, the driving force behind the sonogram law in the Senate.
|
| 8 | Jack G.B. Teman, Jr. | Ken Paxton | Ternan: Raised $12K; $7K COH
Paxton: Raised $190K; $853K COH | R+20
R+22 | R+25
R+38 | Jalapeno Popper | About The Race:
This Plano district is open after the retirement of Senator Florence Shapiro, and will likely elect conservative Ken Paxton, shifting the body further to the right ideologically. You may remember Paxton from his failed challenge to Speaker Straus last session. Paxton has racked up the endorsements of the the three-headed conservative hydra of TLR, MQS, and the YCT's. Meanwhile, Paxton's campaign website still amounts to nothing more than a splash page. Democratic candidate Ternan is a Plano native and attorney, who has been involved in seeking justice for those harmed by the City of Farmers Branch's anti-immigrant ordinances, Deepwater Horizon oil spill, and an anti-competitive deal between Southwest and American airlines. Despite the numbers, Ternan appears to be mounting a decent effort, hitting Paxton for skipping a forum with the Plano ISD PTA Council for a business round-table in Austin with his donors.
|
| 9 | Pete Martinez | Kelly Hancock, Todd Smith | Martinez filed for office on March 8, no TEC reports yet.
Hancock: Raised $26K; $23K COH; Spent $550K
Texans For Kelly Hancock: Raised $391K; $580K COH; $250K Loans
Smith: Raised $9K; $282 COH; $250K Loans | R+16
R+14 | R+21
R+31 | Pepper Spray! | About The Race:
This primary is one of two that will demonstrate the ideological shift of the Texas GOP, and if right-wing groups can deliver a victory to the arguably lesser candidate. The Senate will shift further to the right if Hancock wins, as opposed to the relatively more sane and centrist Smith. Both are state representatives seeking the seat vacated by Senator Chris Harris's retirement. Hancock was a reliable right-wing vote in the lower chamber, and was at the forefront of efforts to protect businesses from the enforcement of greenhouse gas emissions standards. (In other words, he's a whore for the oil & gas industry.) Initially Hancock announced that he would be challenging Wendy Davis in the gerrymandered version of SD-10 drawn to elect a Democrat, but was then drawn back into the 9th, where arguably his right-wing positions are more of an asset to winning the seat via the primary. Smith is arguably the more competent and capable of the two, but that's no bonus in a GOP primary. Hancock has already been endorsed by TRL and MSQ, the latter of whom is particularly not a Smith fan, referring to him as a "moderate lackey." Not on the ballot in this race? State Rep. Rodney Anderson, who was elected to HD-106 in 2010, served one term that was largely devoid of accomplishments before announcing for SD-9, only to drop out and endorse Hancock once he entered the race.
|
| 10 | Wendy R. Davis* | Mark Shelton | Davis: Raised $569K; $681K COH
Shelton: Raised $274K; $256K COH | R+05
R+03 | R+08
R+18 | Pepper Spray! | About The Race:
This is the only genuinely competitive general election in the Texas Senate this year. Wendy Davis battled back against GOP efforts to draw her out of her Fort Worth district, and now faces a challenge from Mark Shelton, a state representative. Davis was a leader on education and women's health issues, and prior to her election to the Senate served as a Fort Worth city council member. Shelton was elected to the State House in 2008, defeating Democratic incumbent Dan Barrett. Ironically, Shelton is a pediatrician, yet he consistently voted against Texas children, mothers, and families in the Legislature. Davis is apparently the only Democrat who has won in this configuration of SD-10 at any level of the ballot, and faces an uphill battle. However, Davis is a strong campaigner, and given the importance of her 12th vote in the Senate, this is one worth fighting for all the way until 7:00 p.m. on Election Day.
|
| 11 | | Daniel McCool, Dave Norman, Larry Taylor | McCool: Raised $10K; $31 COH
Norman: Raised $10K; $11K COH
Friends of Larry Taylor: Raised $249K; $169K COH | R+26
R+19 | R+22
R+35 | Jalapeno Popper | About The Race:
Senator Mike Jackson is stepping down to run for Congress, spurring on this three-way primary in Southeast Texas. Larry Taylor, currently a State Representative, is the odds-on favorite here, and has racked up the support of the usual GOP suspects. It remains to be seen if any of Taylor's enemies from his time in the Lege decide to play heavily in this election. McCool is a right-wing, Tea Party activist type who touts the endorsements of various Harris Co. precinct chairs and 270 Facebook fans on his website. Dave Norman, an insurance agent, still hasn't updated the primary date on his website, and his last "News" update was in November. No news is good news? Not so much.
|
| 12 | | Jane Nelson* | Nelson: Raised $256K; $950K COH
| R+26
R+26 | R+31
R+43 | Peppermint Patty | About The Race:
Nelson won on the filing deadline.
|
| 13 | Rodney Ellis* | | Ellis: Raised $141K; $1.6M COH
| D+66
D+66 | D+67
D+62 | Peppermint Patty | About The Race:
Ellis won on the filing deadline.
|
| 14 | Kirk Watson* | Guy Fielder | Watson: Raised $355K; $1.5M COH
| D+29
D+25 | D+24
D+14 | Green Bell Pepper | About The Race:
Watson will win, the only question is by how much. His numbers in Bastrop County, now fully in SD-14, will be interesting to compare to other Dems on the district, since Watson is well-known (and beloved) in the area.
|
| 15 | John Whitmire* | Bill Walker | Whitmire: Raised $318K; $5.1M COH
Walker: Raised $0; $0 COH. Filed December 11. | D+20
D+22 | D+21
D+08 | Green Bell Pepper | About The Race:
Whitmire will win.
|
| 16 | | John Carona* | Carona: Raised $296K; $130K COH
| R+11
R+13 | R+14
R+31 | Peppermint Patty | About The Race:
Carona won on the filing deadline.
|
| 17 | | Joan Huffman* | Huffman: Raised $501K; $0 COH
Texans for Joan Huffman: Raised $114K; $704K COH; $890K Loans | R+16
R+17 | R+13
R+31 | Peppermint Patty | About The Race:
Huffman won on the filing deadline.
|
| 18 | | Glenn Hegar* | Hegar: Raised $130K; $1.2M COH
| R+29
R+22 | R+26
R+38 | Peppermint Patty | About The Race:
Hegar won on the filing deadline. I'm surprised he didn't mount a challenge to Blake "Ducky Pajamas" Farenthold in the GOP primary for CD-27 given the overlap of the districts and lack of photos of Hegar with Playboy Bunnies. Oh well.
|
| 19 | Carlos I. Uresti* | Michael Berlanga | Uresti: Raised $183K; $76K COH; $19K Loans
Berlanga: Filed for office December 15, No TEC reports to date | D+11
D+17 | D+07
D+00 | Green Bell Pepper | About The Race:
Don't let the 2010 SCOTX numbers worry you -- in a Presidential year (or otherwise) Uresti will be fine. He prevailed in 2010 by 7 points. This race will be an interesting benchmark to see how Democratic turnout fares in southwest Texas. It matters in the context of the CD-23 race, where Rep. Pete Gallego is trying to unseat Quico Canseco, as the districts overlap significantly.
|
| 20 | Juan "Chuy" Hinojosa* | Raul Torres | Hinojosa: Raised $373K; $386K COH
Torres: Raised $43K; $32K COH | D+12
D+21 | D+07
D+03 | Jalapeno Popper | About The Race:
The 2010 numbers might give Democrats pause about whether or not Hinojosa will win, but in reality the district should be a safe hold. Of interest here is the fact that Torres is running at all -- the current State Rep was drawn into the same district as Republican Connie Scott. Rather than prove that a Hispanic Republican can't win a primary even in South Texas, Torres opted to fall on his sword in November, and spend the year making clownish attacks on Hinojosa. Regardless, he won't be coming back to Austin next year, so the joke's on him.
|
| 21 | Judith Zaffirini* | Grant Rostig | Zaffirini: Raised $56K; $1.2M COH
Rostig: Raised $0; $0 COH | D+17
D+26 | D+15
D+07 | Green Bell Pepper | About The Race:
Zaffirini has a reconfigured district that draws her from Laredo all the way to south Austin. The district is still a safe hold, however. If her challenger's name sounds familiar, that's because Rostig ran against Lloyd Doggett in the 2006 special election for CD-25; and for Caldwell Co. Commissioner in 2010. His platform revolves around respecting the Federal Constitution. That's a big deal on the Commissioner's Court, amirite?
|
| 22 | Lyndon Laird | Brian Birdwell* | Laird Filed for office March 8; no TEC reports filed yet
Birdwell: Raised $189K; $231K COH | R+31
R+22 | R+23
R+36 | Green Bell Pepper | About The Race:
Birdwell will win.
|
| 23 | Royce West* | John Lawson | West: Raised $240K; $1.2M COH
Lawson: Filed for office March 9; no TEC reports filed yet | D+60
D+61 | D+60
D+56 | Green Bell Pepper | About The Race:
West will win, praise the Lord -- Lawson is a pastor at an extremely anti-choice church that equates abortion to the deliberate extermination of African-Americans.
|
| 24 | | Troy Fraser* | Fraser: Raised $177K; $1.4M COH
| R+34
R+29 | R+37
R+47 | Peppermint Patty | About The Race:
Fraser won on the filing deadline.
|
| 25 | John Courage | Donna Campbell, Elizabeth Ames Jones, Jeff Wentworth* | Campbell: Raised $47K; $4.5K COH; $60K Loans
Jones: Raised $302K; $200K COH
Wentworth: Raised $311K; $183K COH
Courage: Filed for office March 7th; no TEC reports filed yet. | R+24
R+25 | R+28
R+40 | Pepper Spray! | About The Race:
This race promises to bring the crazy, and should be the most entertaining GOP primary in the state this cycle -- possibly more interesting than even the US Senate race. The winner here will again demonstrate what direction GOP primary voters want to take the party in -- to the center-right, the far right, or straight over the cliffs of insanity. On the Republican side, Senator Jeff Wentworth faces formidable female foes in the form of Dr. Donna Campbell and Elizabeth Ames Jones, two eager right-wingers who want to take the seat away from the more moderate Wentworth. Wentworth is a mixed bag: he's not rabidly anti-choice and voted against the sonogram law; his sole goal seems to be arming students via his Guns on Campus legislation; he can be persuaded to side with environmental groups from time to time; he's all about his independent redistricting commission even if no one else in the upper chamber seems to share his enthusiasm for it. By several accounts he's alienated many of his colleagues on both sides of the aisle, and no longer enjoys the geniality that used to characterize his time in the Senate. However, it's his moderate stance on many issues that have caused ire amongst the far right, and drawn Dr. Donna and EAJ into the fray. EAJ was appointed to the Texas Railroad Commission by Rick Perry, a position she recently resigned from due to residency issues. Before that EAJ was a State Rep. in part of Bexar County (fun fact: Joe Straus now holds her old seat). Initially, EAJ was running for the US Senate seat being vacated by KBH. That race is now dominated by Lt. Gov. David Dewhurst and former solicitor general Ted Cruz. Meanwhile, Dr. Donna, who by many accounts is actually crazy, lost to Rep. Lloyd Doggett in the CD-25 general election last cycle, and shortly thereafter moved into the district to challenge Wentworth. The winner takes on San Antonioan John Courage, who many BOR readers will remember from his 2006 campaign against Lamar Smith. Arguably he would have a better shot against a far-right ideologue than the moderate Wentworth, yet funding will be an issue regardless.
|
| 26 | Leticia Van De Putte* | | Van De Putte: Raised $169K; $182K COH
| D+22
D+25 | D+21
D+10 | Peppermint Patty | About The Race:
Van De Putte won on the filing deadline.
|
| 27 | Eddie Lucio, Jr.* | | Lucio: Raised $77K; $5K COH
| D+34
D+42 | D+27
D+24 | Peppermint Patty | About The Race:
Lucio Jr. won on the filing deadline.
|
| 28 | | Robert Duncan*, E.M. Garza | Duncan: Raised $100K; $313K COH
Garza: Filed for office March 9; no TEC reports to date | R+42
R+34 | R+38
R+46 | Green Bell Pepper | About The Race:
Unilaterally, primary challengers to sitting Republican senators have astonishingly bad websites. I wonder if there's a consultancy that specializes in mid-1990's, Geocities-esque sites. Of all that I've seen, Garza's is one of the most minimalistic, but probably not the worst. Expect Duncan to win, but not merely because GOP voters don't support Hispanic candidates.
|
| 29 | Jose R. Rodriguez* | Dan Chavez | Rodriguez: Raised $116K; $103K COH
Chavez: Raised $0; $0 COH | D+32
D+37 | D+23
D+18 | Green Bell Pepper | About The Race:
This is Rodriguez's first re-election campaign, after winning the seat vacated by Elliot Shapleigh in 2010. However, the numbers make it a safe district for the Democratic incumbent. He has also avoided a primary challenge, unlike just about every other Democrat on the ballot in El Paso.
|
| 30 | | Craig Estes*, Jim Herblin | Estes: Raised $161K; $243K COH
Herblin: Raised $6.7K; $4.4K COH | R+43
R+35 | R+40
R+51 | Jalapeno Popper | About The Race:
Estes is a reliable conservative with a laundry list of Republican endorsements. However, that didn't stop MQS & Co. from endorsing challenger Herblin, stating in their press release that "Estes has a lifetime rating of "F" on the Fiscal Responsibility Index." However, given Herblin's anemic fundraising it's hard to see how he pulls this off over the two-and-change term incumbent.
|
| 31 | | Randy Rives, Kel Seliger* | Rives: Raised $13K; $45K COH; $35K Loans
Seliger: Raised $278K; $1.3M COH | R+56
R+48 | R+52
R+60 | Green Bell Pepper | About The Race:
Seliger is one of the more moderate Republicans who drew fire from MQS for being insufficiently opposed to functioning government. Rives is a former Ector County ISD trustee. On his website, he attacks Seliger for being "ranked among the GOP [sic] least conservative senators, yet one of the most effective legislators." Can't have your cake and eat it too, I suppose.
|
|
|
|
