| One issue that has arisen during the debate over whether to hold Austin's 2012 municipal elections in May, or move them to the November has to do with the election calendar. Specifically, it was the Legislature's move of primary run-offs to May (to comply with Federal law pertaining to mail-in, overseas, and military ballots) that prompted the discussion about changing Austin's municipal elections to November, due to the need for the City to purchase additional voting machines.
Let's lay out what kind of election calendar we're talking about if Council indeed approves May elections on a 4-3 vote, as they did during first reading two weeks ago.
Here's what our Austin election calendar for Spring 2012 will look like, if we stick with May municipals:
February 21 - March 2, 2012: Early Voting, partisan primary election
March 6, 2012: Election Day, partisan primary, plus precinct conventions
April 30-May 8, 2012: Early Voting, Austin municipal election
May 12, 2012: Election Day, Austin municipal election
May 14-May 18, 2012: Early Voting, partisan run-off election, if needed
May 22, 2012: Election Day, Partisan run-off election, if needed
June 4-June 12, 2012: Early Voting, Austin municipal run-off election, if needed*
June 16, 2012: Election Day, Austin municipal run-off election, if needed*
And that calendar doesn't even include the further overlap of mail-in ballots, which have an even longer time for application and return. You think running one VBM program can be confusing? Try four overlapping VBM applications and chase programs running at once.
* We can estimate these dates from past municipal run-offs. Note that there isn't a set date required for Austin municipal run-offs, if they are needed. Council orders a canvass of results, and then a run-off if needed. The run-off must occur within 20 to 45 days of that date. (I am unclear how the new Federal guidelines providing 45 days' lead time for overseas / military ballots will impact this.) However, in 2011, 2008, 2005, and 2003, the Council run-offs were held 35 days after the general election, which would put the run-offs at the dates listed above, with the window of Early Voting potentially also subject to change.
From the beginning of Austin municipal early voting through the primary run-off date, that's a potential 16 days of various kinds of voting in person over the span of less than 4 weeks -- 23 days.
We'd have a general city wide election on Saturday, and then start partisan run-off early voting the following Monday. And that's less confusing? If we're concerned about voter fatigue, voter confusion, or staff / campaign operative shortages, that calendar looks a lot more muddled than moving the Austin municipals to November.
Some further questions:
Do we expect primary run-offs in 2012? Probably.
There are a few races shaping up that seem very likely to go to a run-off. The Democratic primary for the Travis County 167th District court has three strong candidates, and if none of them can garner 50%, that race has the strongest potential to go to a countywide run-off. On the Republican side, gerrymandered CD-25, which encompasses much of East and Central Austin as well as western Travis County, currently has 10 declared Republican candidates. There's also the potential of a contested Sheriff's race, and with the filing deadline still a few months out, who knows what may pop up due to retirements and further redistricting map re-draws.
What's the worst case scenario? $3-$4 Million in Added Costs
From the City of Austin's fiscal perspective, the worst case scenario is if a county-wide March primary race goes to a recount, which could last a really, really long time (see: State Rep. Donna Howard's interminable recount spurred on by Republican loser Dan Neil). The machines would be on "lock down" -- they could not be used for the immediately following municipal race. Austin would need to supply all of the voting machines used to conduct those elections. The City of Austin would need to authorize immediate expenditure of additional machines. Voting for a May election basically means that our City Council is betting $3-$4 million that they won't suddenly need to purchase even more machines, and spend more than the $600,000 to $1.2 million this will already cost.
Travis County Elections Officials Urge Move to November
Travis County Clerk Dana DeBeauvoir outlined all of these concerns in her Memo to City Council back in early August. (Download it here.) Stating her strong professional opinion that the 2012 Austin municipal elections be moved to November, she writes of the May dates:
1. It will be confusing and frustrating for voters. We are worried that the saturation of
information that voters are going to receive regarding the candidates and issues in the Presidential primary and possible runoff, the precinct conventions, redistricting, and new voter ID laws is going to make getting the complicated message of how and why these elections have to be separate and overlapping very difficult to deliver. We are concerned that this scenario will discourage voters away from the polls, or even worse, cause some to lose their opportunity to vote because they went on the wrong day or place to vote.
2. It will be more difficult to have well-trained, effective poll workers. We have exceptional poll workers who spend many hours in training, have to learn complex election procedures, and are committed to performing their jobs as perfectly as possible since even the smallest of errors can disenfranchise a voter. By law, primary elections are separate from other types of elections. The procedures used in a Presidential primary election are very different from those used in regular elections. In the past, we have kept those trainings separate. This year, we are still debating how to best minimize the risk of errors if training for both types of elections would have to happen on top of one another.
3. It will create logistical challenges that could result in higher costs, longer lines, and the potential for more errors. For example, the Presidential primary runoff elections have the potential to have a higher-than-average turnout. There is usually a fall off in the number of voters who participate in a runoff election, so under normal circumstances, we could imagine deploying less equipment for the runoff and then turnaround with sufficient equipment for the May election. While there will be no runoff in the Presidential race, there could easily be runoff elections for the offices of United States Senate and House of Representatives. Runoffs in these races have in the past produced high turnouts and often have high profile and well-funded candidates. With the public's current strong interest in the actions of Congress, there could be hotly contested races on both party's tickets. There is no crystal ball with elections, but we have to have a plan ready for every scenario.
Council will take their second vote on this tomorrow at their regularly scheduled meeting, and their third vote in a special called meeting Friday starting at 1:30 p.m. In the meantime, you can email the Mayor and City Council and share your views on the issue.
[Update 2:07 p.m.] My colleague Michael Hurta reminds us in the comments that the Republican Senate primary between Dewhurst and Cruz may well to head to a run-off given the interest in the seat.
I also looked up the recent history of run-offs in Travis County:
2010
Democratic runoffs: Countywide District Court
Republican runoffs: Statewide SCOTX, local HD-47, local SBOE 10
2008
Democratic runoffs: Statewide Railroad Commissioner, Travis Co District Attorney, local Constable Pct 1
Republican runoffs: None
2006
Democratic runoffs: Statewide Senate, Statewide Lt Gov, Local CD-10, Local HD-47
Republican runoffs: Statewide CCA, Countywide 3rd COA, Local HD-47, HD-50
N.B.: that doesn't even factor in potential run-offs in the Hays and Williamson County precincts that overlap with the City of Austin.
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