| As Rick Perry's name continues to be floated and polled for a potential 2012 Presidential bid, it's interesting to see that in a recent PPP poll of Texas, he fares extremely poorly in a General Election match-up against Barack Obama. Maybe because those of us who know him best think that sending him to his dreaded Washington would be the worst thing to happen to America since the last Texas Governor who won the job in a popular vote of Supreme Court justices.
From PPP, emphasis mine:
Perry is almost as unpopular [as Obama in Texas]. Only 43% of voters approve of him with 52% giving him bad marks. Most striking in Perry's numbers is a horrible 33/62 standing with independents. He also has 21% of Republicans disapproving of him while only 12% of Democrats cross over to give him good marks. Perry may prove to be a strong Presidential candidate but his numbers in Texas are nothing to write home about.
It's because we know him to be an incompetent buffoon, incapable of governing. As a table, from PPP's survey of 796 Texas voters:
Do you approve or disapprove of Governor Rick Perry's job performance?
Approve: 43%
Disapprove: 52%
Not sure: 4% |
Do you think Rick Perry should run for President next year, or not?
He should run: 33%
He should not: 59%
Not sure: 8% |
If the candidates for President next year were Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Rick Perry, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama: 47%
Rick Perry: 45%
Undecided: 8% |
Perry's numbers are pulled down substantially by the 25% of McCain voters in 2008 who disapprove of Perry. 40% of McCain voters don't even think Perry should run. Only 78% of the McCain voters are ready to commit to voting for Rick Perry, with 11% picking Obama and 11% undecided. Interesting.
But don't get too excited yet. The undecideds may not know who they're voting for, but they aren't all that keen on Obama. PPP explains:
The vast majority of undecideds in all of these match ups disapprove of the job Obama is doing. For instance in the match up with Perry 88% of undecideds disapprove of Obama's job performance to only 8% who approve. If you allocate the undecided voters based on their assessment of Obama that shifts the numbers 7 points and puts Perry ahead by 5.
 The base of support for a Perry Presidency, unsurprisingly, aligns itself strongly with support for secession. From the poll's crosstabs, the folks who most want Perry to run are those who most favor secession. Now, this sounds to me like a logical fallacy. "I want Perry to be President, but I don't want to be part of the United States." I guess they want him to be Supreme Leader of the United Counties of Texas, which he kind of is, but that isn't working out very well for the people of Texas. It's interesting to ponder: if he was elected President, would Perry try to use an Executive Order to kick Texas out of the union, and then resign to rule his homeland?
However, Perry isn't the strongest choice of the secessionists, who go 73% for the Governor of Texas. They back Ron Paul at a rate of 80% and Michele Bachmann at 77%. Interestingly, amongst those voters who just can't stand being Americans anymore, Obama does the best against Palin and Pawlenty, garnering 20% of the secessionist vote. I guess for all voters, there is always a bridge too far.
By the by, PPP mentions that Republican candidates seem to be overwhelmingly unpopular in their home states. Not only is Perry disliked here in Texas, so is Sarah Palin in Alaska, per the Alaska Dispatch. Familiarity breeds contempt, as they say. Texans also don't like Ron Paul very much, except for those who really, really like him, but they're probably too socially off-putting to generate much of a larger grassroots movement. Paul's at 30/46 favorable/unfavorable.
This, of course, is just the General Election match-up. Perry actually does very well in Republican primary polling in Texas, which we'll look at tomorrow. |
