1 Community, 1 District? House Redistricting Committee Meets in Austin

Will They Listen? (5.00 / 1)

That's easy.

NO

They're Republicans.  When have they ever listened?

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by: rgembry @ Wed Nov 17, 2010 at 11:12:17 AM UTC

"Burden rural Texas"? (3.00 / 2)

I hope you're joking. Otherwise, this post just might exemplify everything that's wrong with the Austin liberal establishment.

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by: Robert Ryland @ Wed Nov 17, 2010 at 15:21:17 PM UTC

An Anecdote is needed (0.00 / 0)

I think perhaps I worded that wrong.

But I have some very conservative family members in rural Texas who hate Lloyd Doggett with a passion -- more than even President Obama (who they also hate). However, we have come to a conclusion that it would be appropriate for Lloyd Doggett to then represent all of Austin, so that they could have a Congressperson who better represented them.

I was really just trying to convey that sense -- the one among Republicans in rural Texas who the state legislature is hurting.

"Let us tenderly and kindly cherish therefore, the means of knowledge. Let us dare to read, think, speak, and write."  -  John Adams

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by: Michael Hurta @ Wed Nov 17, 2010 at 18:21:47 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Why do they hate Lloyd Doggett? (0.00 / 0)

We had a number of soft R's turn against Lloyd in my county this year, but I think that has more to do with our messaging and a general malaise about who we are and what we represent, rather than anything Lloyd himself has done. I don't like my Congressman (Michael McCaul), either, but gerrymandering by political preference would be even more unmanageable that what we do now.

I doubt Lloyd will get hemmed back into more friendly confines; I can see them doing the opposite, in fact.  

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by: Robert Ryland @ Wed Nov 17, 2010 at 18:38:45 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Lloyd will always have the Travis Co. Dem Seat (0.00 / 0)

I'm pretty sure Congressman Doggett will have the Democratic seat that goes into Travis County -- it would be impossible for them not to make one, and as he has shown willingness to do before -- he will move if need be.

Austin just loves the guy.

And with Doggett, I'm not sure if the problem is messaging, at least not on a local level. There's no getting past that Congressman Doggett is one of the most liberal members of all Congress, and they're simply not there. True, my particular family members are Fox-News-watching Republicans, but there are other Democrats that they would prefer.  "Austin Liberal" isn't just a moniker - it's an accurate description, and one I'm proud of -- but they aren't.

"Let us tenderly and kindly cherish therefore, the means of knowledge. Let us dare to read, think, speak, and write."  -  John Adams

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by: Michael Hurta @ Wed Nov 17, 2010 at 18:57:41 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Don't change the boundaries too much (0.00 / 0)

Lloyd Doggett is a great representative for many Hays County residents such as myself and it would be a shame for us to be represented by a Republican.  

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by: jfung79 @ Sat Nov 27, 2010 at 23:32:33 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Deviations (0.00 / 0)

Since the deviations of the 3 Austin district looks like around 565K, or 80% of 1 district, the Republicans cannot simply keep the current split of Austin by making the districts more compact without risking losing at least one, if not both, of TX-10 and TX-21.  

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by: blank @ Wed Nov 17, 2010 at 17:25:52 PM UTC

Thanks for the link (0.00 / 0)

Those numbers do present a challenge for the Rs:

- McCaul (CD 10) +235,235
- Smith (CD 21) +129,834
- Doggett (CD 25) +102,324

I'm not surprised that CD-10 is so over-weighted, given the growth in both the Austin and Houston/Katy ends of the district.

Last Friday, Sen. Watson said that he thinks it likely that three of the new districts will be drawn as Republican leaning and that one will be Democratic leaning.

Conventional wisdom might think that the Border might get a new Dem district, but their growth is less than half the estimated size for a new district (277,528 pop. out of 698,552 needed):

- CD 27 +6,177
- CD 15 +60,701
- CD 28 +109,039
- CD 23 +96,508
- CD 16 +5,103

Which suggests that the Lege will have to look elsewhere, probably Austin-San Antonio or Corpus) for the additional 421,024 to make up a district.  The overpopulation for Smith, Doggett and Paul (CD 14 +52,233) only offers an additional 284,391 population, 136,633 shy of a new district. CD 10 could then make up the difference, particularly if one of the new Republican districts goes to suburban Houston.  But you also need to take into account the underpopulation in the West Texas districts (CD 11 14,634, CD 19 28,365, and CD 13 -51,001).

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by: Jeb @ Thu Nov 18, 2010 at 17:05:10 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Catch-22 (0.00 / 0)

It is in the Republicans' best interest to put Doggett in a Travis-only district. McCaul's district needs to lose some Travis while it is impossible to get rid of Doggett. While it would be nice to keep Travis together, it will create absolute safety for McCaul and Smith if their districts cede Travis to Doggett's district.

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by: DallasDavid @ Wed Nov 17, 2010 at 20:19:48 PM UTC

Yes, but (0.00 / 0)

McCaul lives in Austin.  It certainly looks likely, though, that Smith will have a smaller district outside Travis and based in the Bandera Belt.

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by: Jeb @ Thu Nov 18, 2010 at 17:11:36 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

doesn't matter where he lives (0.00 / 0)

You aren't required to live in the congressional district you represent, but either way I think McCaul has the funds to move if need be.  

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by: blake @ Thu Nov 18, 2010 at 17:46:34 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

LOL (0.00 / 0)

They'll listen. They just won't care what you have to say. The Republicans are going to draw like they've always drawn.

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by: John McClelland @ Thu Nov 18, 2010 at 15:52:24 PM UTC

These hearings are pro forma (0.00 / 0)

They have to hold them, but you know that they're not really looking for citizen input, and especially not from Democrats.

On the other hand, testimony at these hearings, and more importantly the hearings that will take place in the spring, will be part of the public record of the redistricting process, and will be considered by the DOJ, or by the courts, when they rule on whether the maps that the lege passes are legal. So once the census comes out with its large-scale numbers and assignment of congressional seats to states (December), once they come out with their official numbers (somewhere between mid-February and April 1) and once the lege starts carving things up, it will be very important for activists to get organized, to voice our objections to bad plans, and to ask for better ones.

Expect to be very busy with this from April to the end of the legislative session.

BTW, the Travis County Democratic Party has a committee looking at redistricting issues (I'm the chair). We've met and we're starting to look at things, but until the census weighs in, there's not a lot to be done.  

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by: LSadun @ Thu Nov 18, 2010 at 23:35:56 PM UTC