After weeks of silence, three polls were released in the last few days. Here are the toplines.
AJP: (Oct 14-15, American Justice Partnership, 1200 Voters)
UT/TT: (Oct 12-18, UT/Texas Tribune, 797 Voters)
RAS: (Oct 21, Rasmussen, 500 Likely Voters)
Governor
+11 | Perry 48% White 37% Undecided 11% (AJP)
+10 | Perry 50% White 40% Glass 08% Shafto 02% (UT/TT)
+09 | Perry 51% White 42% Undecided 05% Other 02% (RAS)
Lt. Governor
+35 | Dewhurst 55% Chavez-Thompson 20% (AJP)
+13 | Dewhurst 51% Chavez-Thompson 38% Libertarian 09% Green 02% (UT/TT)
Attorney General
+35 | Abbott 58% Radnofsky 23% (AJP)
+20 | Abbott 55% Rodnofsky 35% Libertarian 11% (UT/TT)
Comptroller
+NA | Combs 51% Libertarian 11% Green 09% Undecided 29% (UT/TT)
Land Commissioner
+13 | Patterson 50% Uribe 37% Libertarian 12% (UT/TT)
Ag Commissioner
+13 | Staples 50% Gilbert 37% Libertarian 12% (UT/TT)
Railroad Commisioner
+16 | Porter 50% Weems 34% Libertarian 10% Green 05% (UT/TT)
I won't get into methodology other than to say AJP was essentially a lobby issue poll with horse-race questions tacked on, the UT/TT poll finally pushed leaners but is still a YouGov Internet Poll, and Rasmussen is, well, Rasmussen. For a state as big as Texas with a hot race, it's been entirely disappointing how little quality polling is done here. I don't say that because all the polls show Perry and GOP candidates ahead- they are, but I'm about 100% positive that next cycle, I'm going to have Burnt Orange Report partner with a non-partisan polling firm and help fix this.
Thoughts- I've never seen 3rd Party candidates poll this high in Texas. Up to 15% of the vote in the Railroad Commissioner race is potentially tied up between the Libertarian and Green party. The GOP sponsored Green Party appears to be well on its way to getting the 5% needed to get automatic "fuck with the Democrats" ballot access in 2012. This could be due to a lack of oxygen and awareness of downballot races. It's also an expression of a very angry electorate that without other information, is willing to vote against both the Republican & Democratic parties.
While White is closing the gap in the Governor's race, it's marginal- not to mention there are a week's worth of votes already cast. It's not a question of just winning all the undecideds, it's forcing some of Perry's voters to switch to White (or Libertarian Kathie Glass). There is some hope there as the UT/TT poll notes...
While 72 percent of White's voters support him "very strongly," only 53 percent of Perry's voters say the same. Glass has very strong support from 40 percent. All of Shafto's voters say they only "somewhat strongly" support her.
According to the UT/TT poll, the GOP has an +18 generic congressional ballot lead and a +15 generic state legislative ballot lead. Governor Perry's job approval is 45/37 compared to President Obama's job approval of 35/59 of which only 14% strongly approve and 53% strong disapprove. When 9 out of 10 voters who disapprove of Obama, stongly disapprove, and that makes up a majority of the electorate... that says it all.
Little surprise that Rick Perry has worked to nationalize the Governor's race. Now he just has to decide if he wants to run for President in 2012 or for an unprecedented 4th term as Governor in 2014... if he wins re-election eight days from now. |
