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Multiple people have asked me today for my thoughts on the first day of early voting. While we don't have turnout numbers for the Top 15 Counties by population yet, we do have some report for individual counties who are comparing them to the 2006 numbers. We'll start having better analysis after tonight when counties are allowed to release the individual voter data for the previous day's voters (there's a 24 hour delay built in by law). From there, political junkies with voter files will start matching those who have voted to their previous voting history to glean more detailed insight.
So what do we know? Turnout seems to be up- but for whom remains the question. It's a mixed bag.
Harris County (Houston)
Home of the longest ballot in the state, and arguably the most important county for Bill White- turnout is up. 26,051 voted early on the first day of Early Voting in Person yesterday as compared to 8,545 that voted on the first day of the 2006 election. That's over a 200% increase. Democratic consultant Marc Campos compared the 2010 turnout by voting site to the 2008 election. End result- "At first glance however, it looks like the GOP areas are bit more enthused here in Harris County - at least on the first day."
Hidalgo County (South Texas)
Though one of the most Democratic Counties in the state, Democrats often suffer from an underwhelming general election turnout as most local races are uncontested. But with over 6,000 votes cast in person yesterday, we saw a nearly 300% increase in turnout relative to the first day in 2006. Polling places at the UT-Pan America campus (read: Democratic) aren't even open until next week. Locals claim turnout is from Democratic boxes and driven in part by contested county commission and school board races. (If only we could have more contested general election races in every county along the border!) Perry operatives claim it is due to their amazing social media program.
Travis County (Austin)
With 10,058 votes cast in person Monday, we saw a 100% increase over 2006 numbers. Vote-by-mail was up about 140% from four years ago. That's normally a good sign in liberal Austin- but a word of caution. In 2006, the University of Texas voting site was #1 in turnout out of all 21 early vote sites. This year it was #10 our of 20. In raw votes- UT was up a paltry 4%- the lowest of any site-to-site comparison. Early Vote sites Southwest, West, and Northwest saw 100%-300% increases in turnout over 4 years ago. And all Eastern (read: minority/Democratic) early vote sites combined barely break 1,000 votes, less than 10% of the total. That reflects where the 2-3 hot state house races are in the county- we'll know more after we can start matching voters to the voter file tonight. One good sign- rumor has it the vote-by-mail program was efficient this year and Democrats have anywhere from a 2-1 to 3-1 margin among that pool of votes. That will quickly become eclipsed as the week progresses.
Dallas County (Dallas)
By the end of Monday, 14,530 people had voted early. That shattered the 2006 first-day total of 9,111 early voters. That's a 60% increase over 2006 levels, less of an increase than other urban counties, but an increase nonetheless. Election administrators think total turnout could hit 40-50% in the county compared to 34% in 2006. Turnout is up all over the county, but the northern early vote sites are drawing the most voters. I don't know Dallas that well, so leave a comment if you have some insight into this. I'm not reading anything in particular out of this as of yet.
Tarrant County (Fort Worth)
On Monday, 9,700 voters cast ballots, a 30% increase from the 7,497 people who voted on the first day early voting for the 2006 election. So Fort Worth voters are slightly more excited to vote than in 2006, and being Fort Worth, which is still a Republican leaning county, I'll take that as a good thing for now.
El Paso County (El Paso)
I've looked- there's no reports of anything out there other than the fact that the city ballot referendum on health benefits for gay & lesbian employees is confusing voters. Yes, El Paso has a 'gay ballot measure' this fall. You are now as educated as most El Paso voters about the fact that said referendum is up for a vote.
Bexar County (San Antonio)
14,673 people cast ballots Monday. In 2006, the most recent midterm election year, the opening day of early voting attracted only 8,591 voters. That's a more respectable 70% increase in turnout over 4 years ago. Not much info other than this, which isn't really great news.
On the West Side, at Memorial Branch Library, turnout was noticeably slower than in other parts of the city. The issue of West Side voter enthusiasm was a driving force behind a standing-room-only [Bill] White campaign gathering at a West Side restaurant.
Nueces County (Corpus Christi)
No numbers- but described as hot and heavy (seriously). High turnout in Nueces can cut both ways. Republicans are making gains here and weakness in Nueces is why Congressman Ortiz is suddenly funding himself on the watchlist for closer than need be congressional races. If there's one county where there could be surprise Democratic losses on November 2nd, it's Nueces County. It's fast growing problem and in the long term Democrats need to get things in order here, lest it become the first Hispanic Republican county. I know it sounds bad, but part of the problem here is Congressman Ortiz's machine, which is getting rusty- it lost some primary races this spring.
I'm sure there are more reports from the 246 other counties in Texas- if readers find anything interesting please post it in the comments. And if readers have any other insight or analysis of the major urban centers, post that in the comments as well. We'll know more once we can start analyzing actual voters in the next 24 hours instead of just general locational turnout. |
