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Where Will Hutchison Supporters and Donors Go?


by: Todd Hill

Mon Mar 01, 2010 at 07:00 AM CST


As March 2nd approaches and Rick Perry either wins on Tuesday, or heads into a runoff with Kay Bailey Hutchison, the fallout resulting from a year-long battle for the Texas GOP gubernatorial nomination appears to have taken its toll on supporters and donors of both candidates. The Star-Telegram reports that key donors of Kay Bailey Hutchison may be open to supporting presumed Democratic gubernatorial candidate Bill White after the field has settled:

"I can assure you that I will not be a financial supporter of Rick Perry, and I can assure you that most of the people I talk to are not going to support him either," said Fort Worth oilman Dick Moncrief, Hutchison's financial chairman in North Texas, predicting that Republicans who are "fed up with Perry" may wind up supporting White if Hutchison fails to get the nomination.

"There is absolutely no assurance that Perry can beat White in November," Moncrief said.

 

Clearly a battle for the soul of the Texas Republican Party is bearing out for all to see; whether it is the Tea Party primary challenges to moderate Republican state representatives, or even the current gubernatorial slug-fest between political heavyweights in Perry and Hutchison, the Texas GOP is in shambles.

The question is where do the moderates go?  Clearly if Perry wins, and extremism continues to become bedrock mainstream for the Republican Party of Texas, a wide swath of voters will be up for grabs and available for Bill White.  As more and more Texans declare themselves as independent, or as a large swath of moderate voters become up for grabs due to the Texas GOP splintering, an opportunity arises for the Democratic Party in Texas to expand its base.  Moreover, the opportunity arises for Bill White to begin creating a whole new mainstream majority in the Lone Star State.

Could what Dick Moncrief proposed in the Star-Telegram be a microcosm of what Bill White could expect heading into a general election campaign on March 3rd? It would appear he certainly has the opportunity to try, which represents the best opportunity that Texas Democrats have to be the national headline this November.    

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a runoff is inevitable (0.00 / 0)
I'm curious about how this will translate into other races.

And who will Hutchison endorse? (0.00 / 0)
That of course is a burning question and many wonder if we will revisit 1976 when Ronald Reagan basically ignored Gerald Ford and signalled to many in the Republican Party that a Democrat would be better.  More than likely Hutchison will do the same. And of course you have the Bush connection with White which will justify some votes.

The bottom line of the anti-Perry camps is that they simply had their "goody boxes" taken away from them and just want them back. If not from Hutchison, then from White.

It will be interesting to see what the actual percentages are tomorrow night and in a runoff which most assume, perhaps mistakenly, that Perry will win.  If not the first time, the second time.  Keeping in mind that the percentages of votes for Hutchison will include votes by Democrats who of course will vote for White in November.

The only polls that probably have any significance at this point are the ones everyone will go to tomorrow.

Debra Medina, despite the polls, could prove to be a wild card and could end up pulling more votes than Hutchison an end up in the runoff with Perry. The question then would be whether her votes would switch to White or stick with Perry.  


Don't overestimate the resentment (3.00 / 1)
After a hard fought primary, and especially one as nasty as Perry-Hutchison (with benefit to Medina), the losers are always mad and swear that they'll never vote for the winner. But eight months later, most of them usually do. If the loser concedes graciously, all the bitterness gets forgotten pretty quickly.

Remember the PUMAs that were going to sink Obama? They never materialized.

Bill White can win in November, and I obviously hope he does, but he's not going to get the anti-Perry Republicans by default. He's going to have to convince them that he's the only responsible candidate out there, and that will take a lot of work.

Of course, if KBH refuses to endorse Perry, or if she goes as far as to endorse White, then all bets are off.  


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