Burnt Orange Report

The undersample on hispanics is porbably about right on . . . while 36% of residents are hispanics, far fewer are in fact citizens, and far fewer stilla re registered to vote. The share of turnout that is Hispanic may be greater than 4%, but don't be fooled by those aggregates . . . I analysed this district several times and there is no way you'll get signficant, decisive Hispanic turnout. It is impossible to craft a hispanic district in Dallas County with more than about 22% Spanish surname registration (I think SSVR is 12% in CD32?).

Byron is not pretending that D-32 is a Hispanic distric. The point is simply that in a race so close, the Hispanic vote is important, and while the Hispanic vote will not be anywhere near its 36% of the population (and that may be an undercount of total population - census undercounts Hispanics), it will be more than 4%.

TX-32 isn't a Hispanic district, but a conservative estimate of Hispanics making up 10% of the total district vote makes this a two or three point race (assuming that Hispanics vote for Frost with typical margins).

I understand guys, but you grossly overstated the potential Hispanic impact when you claiomed the district at 36% Hispanic . . .

I'm looking at the summary report on plan 1374C (HB-3) and this district has a 13.3% Spanish Surname registration, based on 36% HVAP. Frost's old seat was 18% SSVR with a 33% HVAP . . . this district has a much lower citizen VAP Hispanic population, and urban Hispanics in Texas vote at a much lower rate than suburban Anglos or African-Americans (about half the rate of blacks among registrants). I suspect you can bank on, tops, 6-7% of turnout being Hispanic, which, in this district, typically trnaslates into a circumstance where the Republican gets about 57-60% of the vote.

If Frost wins it is poetic justice and I wish him luck, but don't be counting on Hispanic turnout in Dallas county to make it happen. During the trial phase of redisrtricting, I assessed the partisan dynamic of this district, as well as the racial performance indicator, and it is, by design, a safe district. If Frost wins, it is because of the millions he spends and the incompetent nature of his opposition, and not because of critical Hispanic mobilization. The elctorate in that district is 80% anglo white, which means a Democrat needs 40% of that vote to prevail, assuming exceptional minority cohesion for Democrats at 90%.

Can Martin Frost pull 40% of the white, anglo vote?

When quoting Census statistics about the Hispanic population in Dallas County, please be aware that the numbers are from 2000. Since that time, the Hispanic share of the County's population has been growing by over 1% per year. That means that, assuming even distribution of population, this district could now be 40% Hispanic, actually putting it at majority-minority (black+hispanic+asian).

In 2002, the voter registration was 13.3% hispanic surname, compared to 11.8% in 2000. Simple extension of the trend would put it at nearly 15% hispanic registration now. Even in 2002's low-turnout election (52% vs 68% in 2000), Democratic statewides improved by 1.2 points, indicating that the Democratic share may closely track Hispanic registration growth.

Granted, Martin's task is still tougher than a "Golden Corral" t-bone, but this poll substantially understates his support by undersampling Hispanics. It would appear to assume a turnout rate among those voters of about 25%, which is ridiculous, since even the most-Hispanic districts in the state run at about 50% during Presidential years.

I fully appreciate the trend numbers . . . but even with those "trends" the general character of turnout will not reflect anything resembling the 36% figure cited by the article above . . . OK, I'll throw you a sop: 6-8% turnout that is Hispanic, instead of 5-7% . . . I'd enjoy seeing Frost win, but I think your kidding yourselves with regard to these Hispanic numbers. If you win, it is because Frost breaks off white suburbanites . . .

I'm afraid I have to agree with kieth. I think we all, deep down, realize he's right. This battle isn't going to be won or lost in Oak Cliff. It's going to be desided in the "M"-streets, East Dallas, and Preston Hollow.