Burnt Orange Report

New Texas Poll

By Byron LaMasters

According to Survey USA (PDF file), Bush leads Kerry by a 21 point margin in Texas (58-37%). Via Political Wire and Off the Kuff.

The poll is about what I would expect out of Texas. Interestingly, 21 points is exactly the margin that Bush beat Gore by in Texas in 2000. I expect Kerry to improve slightly on Gore's showing for a few reasons:

First, Nader pulled two percent in 2000, and will not be on the Texas ballot. Unlike previous years, there is significantly less fire directed at the Democrats from various lefist / Green groups. They sufficiantly hate Bush that even if they think John Kerry is a douche bag, they're voting for him anyway.

Second, the homestate bounce that a candidate typically gets will be significantly less for Bush in 2004 than it was in 2000. In 2000, George W. Bush was our relatively uncontroversial, popular compassionate conservative governor. Now, Bush is the most divisive president since Nixon as he has spent four years pursuing the most radical right-wing agenda of any president in modern times. While the above poll does not the Bush approval rating in Texas, there's no reason to believe that it is significantly lower than it was in 2000.

Third, Democrats in Texas are much more united than in 2000. Our state house was still in Democratic hands, and Speaker Pete Laney (D-Hale Center) led with a bipartisan coalition. Few Democrats could have imagined the systematic power grab by Tom Delay and his cronies in the legislature. Thus, I believe that Democrats and some Independents who sat out of the 2000 election are more likely to vote in 2004 just to send a message that they're pissed off with the way Republicans do business in this state.

What does it all mean, though? Not a heck of a lot. Gore plus Nader in 2000 was 40% of the vote. My bet is that Kerry will get in the low forties - 41 to 43% if I had to guess at the moment. I think it's possible for Kerry to approach 45% in Texas, but anything higher than that seems extremely unlikely.

Update: I'm perplexed about how they divided the state up regionally. Bush leads the panhandle by a two-to-one margin - no surprise there. Then it shows Kerry with a 58-36% lead in "West Texas". I'm with Kuff in that I assume that just means El Paso (city or county), because if rural west Texas, Odessa and Midland were included, the Kerry lead would evaporate quickly. The next category is Houston, showing Bush with a 50-47% lead. Again, does that mean the city of Houston, Harris County, or Houston metro. It's a very significant difference. If it's just the city, I would expect Kerry to have a sizable lead. If it were Harris County, I would expect a modest Bush lead (so that seems to be the most likely scenario), and if it were greater Houston metro, I would expect a Bush lead in the 60-40% range. The state is also divided along urban, suburban and rural lines, which are somewhat more predictable.