Rasmussen does (kinda) Texas
By Jim Dallas
KOS has been keeping track of newly-released Rasmussen data which breaks down their 30 daily polls during the month of May by state. (Note that deconstructing national tracking poll data is a little different methodologically speaking than doing a full-on state poll).
Nonetheless, the breakdowns are showing some interesting results, with the race for president practically tied in Missouri, Ohio, Virginia, North Carolina, Oregon, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania.
Rasmussen also used this technique to guess-timate support for Bush and Kerry in Texas. The results:
May 1 - May 31
(Purported Margin of Error: +/- 3%)
Bush 55%
Kerry 38%
Other 3%
Not Sure 4%
As Rasmussen notes, this is "expected." So really the only thing worth watching is, will Bush underperform or overperform in Texas compared to his showing in 2000? In part the matter is pride; "not losing as badly" would be sort of a moral victory for Texas Democrats. But just as importantly, polling data on this race will serve as a barometer of several things which will decide this election and future elections:
- Is Bush's base going to show up for him? If Texas isn't Bush's base -- what is?
- Are demographic trends actually helping Democrats, as many commentators have suggested?
- Is the mood in the Lone Star State such that Democrats have real opportunities in 2006?
- And many, many more.
Considering that Texas broke 59-38 for Bush in 2000, a 55-38 showing suggests that Bush is heading towards a November result which is no better, and potentially worse than, his showing four years ago. While Bush has a decent approval rating here (Rasmussen claims 60 percent; I suspect it is closer to 50), I would bet on Bush getting about 55 percent, Kerry getting about 43, and third parties carrying the rest. In short, I expect Bush to fall about four or five points short of his previous tally.
Why? The enthusiasm at least a few "Bushocrats" had for Gov. Bush has not translated into support for President Bush (ask Paul Burka). The state Republicans are forming a circular firing squad. Demographic shifts will probably give Kerry a one- or two- point boost. Finally, Nader isn't on the ballot here in Texas.
This is only June, and a lot can change (it''s even remotely possible that Kerry could carry Texas). We need more real polls to see where this race is going.
Posted by Jim Dallas at June 4, 2004 11:01 PM
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Rasmussen polls are even less accurate than most.
In May they showed Kerry ahead of Bush in Illinois by only 5% (48-43). I doubt if anybody but the most brainwashed activist neocons in my state believed this.
In their June IL poll, Kerry is ahead by 16% (54-38). They are asking us to believe that an 11% shift took place.
Since early March, I have felt that Kerry's showing will be similar to Gore's margin in 2000 (55-43). I have detected no wild swings in public opinion for the past three months.
If anything, Kerry will benefit by Barack Obama's very strong lead in the race for one of IL's two US Senate seats.
Even Gov. Blagojevich's silly feud with the Madigan family has not hurt the Democrats.
