(Just want to highlight that LA Times article on Texas once more. Great thoughts here. - promoted by Karl-Thomas Musselman)
Promising news in the Los Angeles Times on Sunday: Democrats set sights on Texas.
... strategists believe the large and growing Latino population there remains untapped, along with a large black electorate, which could make Texas competitive with a major investment of time and money from an Obama-led Democratic Party.
(snip)
One top Obama strategist said the campaign had already sought to build the Texas state party, handing over a database with hundreds of thousands of voter names and phone numbers gathered when Obama and New York Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton competed in the state's Democratic primary. Much of the campaign's attention in that effort focused on Latinos in the Rio Grande Valley.
The article focuses specifically on the growing Latino population in Texas, and how Latino voters have helped flip Florida and the Mountain West firmly into the Blue column.
This analysis is backed up by a presentation I saw at the LBJ School last year by Republican pollster Mark Baselice, who basically stated that demographic trends suggest that Texas will go Blue by 2020. Of course, most of us here aren't content to wait for time to take its course and want to make it happen a potential ten years sooner. Enter grassroots organizing to get the job done. The past two election cycles affirmed the potential of a confluence of factors to turn major Red States blue, giving a good sense of what Texas needs to get it done in 2010 and 2012.
Two Cases in Point: Virginia and North Carolina.
First Case in Point: Virginia
Massive on-the-ground organization, a series of hotly contested races, and population migration have all turned this former Southern stronghold into a solid Democratic state.
On one hand, the migration of Democratic voters to the Northern-VA area from D.C. and elsewhere helped generate the margins necessary to overcome the heavily conservative areas of the state. Generational shifts and social factors also helped, FiveThirtyEight makes the case. High numbers of African American voters, young voters, and strong education all help the Democrats.
The exit polls are impressive: Obama won amongst men and women, all age groups under 64, and only lost the Honkey Dude vote by 24%, which sounds depressing until you realize that Kerry lost it by a whopping 45%.
But really, it's grassroots that gets it done. DailyKos diarist RenaRF makes the point about how relentless canvassing in VA led to a victory for Senator Jim Webb in 2006, and helped seal the deal for Barack Obama this year. Highly-popular Mark Warner didn't hurt either, and their collective coat-tails likely helped pick up two seats in Congress for Glenn Nye and Tom Perriello.
It's remarkable to think that in less than four years, Democrats have essentially swept through Virginia, reclaiming the Governorship, State Senate, both Senate seats, and 6 of 11 Congressional seats. (That would be a Democratic majority for the Virginia delegation, just to be really, really clear.) Evidently, Virginia really is for Lovers... of Democrats!
Second Case in Point: North Carolina
In one of the more surprising-to-the-pundits results on Election Night, Barack Obama carried North Carolina. Even better, the Senatorial race was quickly called for Democrat Kay Hagen after the polls closed. Better still, high school history teacher Larry Kissell picked up a Congressional seat in his re-match with five-term incumbent and vastly better-funded Robin Hayes, who voted for CAFTA even though it would decimate jobs in his district.
Democrats hold the Governorship, majorities in the State House and Senate, and now one of two Senate Seats, with a shot at Richard Burr in 2010. In 2006, the Democrats increased their margin in the State Senate by 4 to hold a 12-seat lead, and boosted their House majority to 16 seats, to 68-52. No offense to Wolfpack fans, but it seems that North Carolina likes wearing its Tarheel blue much better.
Again, we've got a confluence of factors that seem to have helped the Democrats make major gains in NC. Markos credits the May 6th primary that allowed Obama to organize in North Carolina and continue the campaign infrastructure through Election Day. (Interestingly, Indiana also held its primary the same day... And Obama also scored an upset there as well.) Obama's tremendous win in the NC primary left him in a good position to continue that momentum.
JedReport also noted that Obama made significant gains with White voters over 2004. FiveThirtyEight credits high African American registration and turn-out, densely-settled Hispanic communities, and the Research-Triangle area's emphasis on education, as well as the 150-12 paid staffer advantage of the Obama campaign.
The Senate race is especially sweet, since two years ago it was considered a major long shot. And while Libby Dole may be an exceptionally bad campaigner (and the DSCC thanks her for it), it's still remarkable that a State Senator was able to unseat a major figure in the Republican party. (I guess Kay Hagen isn't so "godless" after all, huh, Libby?)
Third Case in Point: Texas?
We're seeing a confluence of factors here that have the potential to bode well for Democrats in Texas. Both Virginia and North Carolina demonstrated strong gains in their State Legislatures in the cycles leading up to this-as Texas did this year. Both also demonstrated gains in Congressional seats as well, in part due to running strong candidates well-suited to their districts-Ciro Rodriguez is a good analogy here.
We've clearly got the demographics on our side with growing Hispanic and African-American contingencies, as well as the fourth-highest number of young voters. While education factors don't help, there is potential to make in-roads with high numbers of working-class voters.
But most importantly, the NC and VA State parties seems to have pushed the positive momentum over into the following cycles. Here in Texas, we need to capitalize on our gains in the State House and Senate, as well as judicial pick-ups and a few key County positions. Both NC and VA also have a strong "farm team" of developing candidates for higher races. This can't be underestimated in terms of growing the party. We need viable people with strong support in terms of volunteers and funding to contest these state-wide races. In all likelihood, we'll be contesting the Governorship, Lt. Governorship, and potentially a special election for Hutchison's Senate seat. We need candidates ready to run.
I, for one, will be watching with interest in the coming months and year to see how the County and State Democratic Parties stay organized here in Texas. We've registered and turned out record voters this cycle. However, to realize the potential Democratic gains in Texas, we've got a lot more work to do.
|
Those of you in Austin have the opportunity to help make voter registration history. Already, Texas has broken records in the numbers of voters on the rolls this cycle. Now, help participate in the largest single-day registration effort in Texas history!
Saturday at the Obama for America Central Texas Office Opening, volunteer organizers are planning to call into targeted Texas House districts. Volunteers will whip out their cell phones and contact strong Democrats and caucus-goers in key precincts, encouraging them to get involved locally or travel to a battleground state.
Join Obama grassroots activists, volunteers, and supporters this Saturday afternoon to welcome the Obama for America staff to Central Texas! We'll have musical acts, refreshments, special guests, the Obama Volunteer Fair, and Obama Action Hour!
Saturday, August 30th
This past weekend, the campaign held its first successful event in Austin. Now, the Obama campaign is showing its commitment to Texas by rolling out six more Camp Obamas next weekend in Austin, Dallas, El Paso, Fort Worth, Houston, and San Antonio. RSVP by Thursday, August 21 at texas@barackobama.com and join in!
