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(As I have previously disclosed, I am a supporter of Lee Leffingwell.) At Brewster McCracken's campaign kickoff yesterday, senior field strategist Temo Figueroa, who served as President Obama's national field director, layed out the McCracken campaign's path to victory. For those of you who missed the kickoff, don't worry. I was watching the Rockets in Houston but still was able to see part of Figueroa's presentation by watching the Austin Chronicle's City Hall Hustle. Figueroa said they were expecting a turnout of 60,000. That, he said, would be 13 percent of Austin voters. Obviously Temo Figueroa knows a lot about this kind of stuff, but that turnout estimate initially struck me as low. Although there were only 35,858 ballots cast in last May's municipal election, there are recent precedents that point towards higher turnout in this year's election, The last race for Mayor of Austin saw 62,016 ballots cast. In that election, Will Wynn coasted to an easy re-election by defeating Danny Thomas and the late Jennifer Gale. In Wynn's first race for Mayor, though he easily beat Max Nofziger and Marc Katz without a runoff, 59,929 people voted, for a turnout of 15 percent. Given that there are three fairly well-known candidates running well-financed campaigns this year, I would think the turnout would be higher in 2009 than it was in 2006 or 2003. Back in November when Carole Strayhorn said her goal was to get 100,000 to vote, I dug up the turnout numbers for the last two truly competitive Mayoral races in Austin to try to get a better idea of what kind of turnout we could expect. In 1997, political newcomer Kirk Watson faced off against Council Member Ronney Reynolds. There was 17 percent turnout in this election. In 1994, Bruce Todd, Daryl Slusher and James Cooley were in a very close three-way race that was destined to go to a runoff (sound familiar?). Over 85,000 people voted, giving the election a turnout of 26 percent. That was not an anomaly, either. When Bruce Todd and Robert Barnstone ran a close race in 1991, turnout was at 23 percent. If Austin had a 26 percent turnout this year, a whopping 161,092 people would vote. Of course, a lot has changed in the last fifteen years and I am not expecting a turnout that astronomically high. For one, city campaign finance laws have significantly affected the amount of money city campaigns spend. Figueroa and others who have pegged turnout at 60,000 could be exactly right. But given that McCracken, Leffingwell, and Strayhorn are all going to run hard campaigns (as are Chris Riley and Perla Cavazos in Place 1), there is a chance turnout could go beyond most expectations.
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