The Texas Democratic Party doesn't stand for anything. To win, our candidates must offer a compelling vision of change.
It is not enough to have an excellent field staff, to have a good media campaign, to have a great yard sign campaign, to have attractive/experienced/qualified candidates. It is also necessary to make a strong case for change.
Chris Bell DEM 7,024 38.16% 19,104 43.88%
Joan Huffman REP 11,378 61.83% 24,431 56.11%
Precincts Reported 211 of 211
Precincts 100%
7:39 pm (Michael): This is all early vote numbers. I'm not sure if these come from all five counties, though. The Secretary of State's pages for Galveston and Chambers counties do not show any votes in, but the early vote totals from Fort Bend, Harris, and Jefferson do not add up to the totals you see here.
7:45 pm (Michael): It turns out the Secretary of State's site made an error. Instead of Bell winning Harris County early votes 2-1, Huffman did.
8:28 pm (Michael): Galveston County's early votes are in, as well as some of their election day votes. Thanks to Byron LaMasters' comment, I now also understand that Chabmers County doesn't have any voters in the senate district. While Bell has gained a little since the last update, the numbers still do not look very promising.
8:49 pm (Matt): New numbers. Bell is closing the margins but the gap is still very large.
8:51 pm (Matt): Not to be too optimistic, but as of now, with 50% in, Bell is down approximately 3,300 votes. The percentage is about 11%, but the raw vote total is doable. This is my moment of cautious optimism.
8:58 pm (Michael): As more election-day results come in, Bell inches slowly closer to Huffman in this race. But that certainly doesn't mean anything, as a good chunk of the votes that came in are from the completed precincts in Jefferson county, which went about 84% Democratic in November and didn't change much here. Another chunk of votes are from Harris County, where Bell still isn't winning today's votes yet (although it is close.) If he doesn't win Harris County today I don't see how he can win the race. Brazoria County also finished their reporting, but they were expected to be strong for Huffman. She won there about 2-1.
More than half the precincts are in, and Bell still has a lot of ground to make up (at least percentage-wise.)
9:00 (Matt): This thing is over. With 64% of the vote in, there is no way Congressman Bell can catch Huffman. He is now 4,400 votes off and the friendliest boxes all seem to be in. The sad thing is, if it hadn't been for Ron Wilson and the Republican Party putting up a schill Bell probably would have won on November 4.
9:13 (Michael): Where is Fort Bend County? I'm not suggesting that there is much likelihood that Bell can come back out of Fort Bend, but the "Ds" didn't do horrible in those precincts on election day, and for all we know, the GOTV effort could have been heavier there? I think I remember calling a few numbers from that area. But, if there IS any way for him to come back, it would be a miracle from Fort Bend. I doubt it, but once again; I'd just like to see the results. I'm not sure what's taking so long.
9:15 (Michael): Right as I post the above update, Fort Bend starts giving us something to look at. Unfortunately, there's no help. Rather, quite the opposite.
9:51 pm (Michael): Only two precincts remain uncounted. This one's over, folks. I'll give some final comments on the day later tonight.
In the SD17 Special Election, Republican Joan Huffman is now running advertisements on TV, and they give an in-substantial jab to Chris Bell. And Bell is quickly up with a quick response:
Huffman's ad accurately claims, "Chris Bell has run for office and lost again and again." That's surely an attack of "petty politics": who cares how many times someone has lost an election? It's not as if Bell has never won; he's served well on the Houston City Council and U.S. Congress.
Chris Bell, in some of his losses, has simply been less preferred than other good public servants (i.e. Al Green, Lee Brown). By all means, someone who loses can still be good. Bell has given some great public service representing Houstonians, and he is running for the Texas Senate because he wants to do so again. With Republicans who preach values unfit for Houston or Texas, I hope a majority of SD17 voters go with the man who has practiced strong leadership, instead.
Yesterday, Matt reported that Chris Bell had filed a lawsuit to remove a last-minute candidate, Stephanie Simmons, who some believe is a Republican stalking horse intended to pull Democratic votes from Bell.
Today, the Houston Chronicle's Texas Politics blog is reporting that Austin attorney Roy Minton will represent Simmons in court.
Minton has represented politicians from each party including Tom Craddick.
A hearing is scheduled for Monday afternoon in state district court in Austin. Bell sued Simmons and the Texas secretary of state on Thursday, contending that Simmons hasn't lived in District 17 for a year, as required by state law. He contends that Simmons, who filed as a Democrat, is a "phantom" candidate urged to run by Republicans eager to siphon Democratic support from Bell. "I'm satisfied with what I know now that she (Simmons) does live in that district and will have lived there for more than a year by the time the election is held," Minton said.
We'll keep you updated as this story continues to develop.
After weeks of speculation, Chris Bell will announce his candidacy for Senate District 17 this Sunday, Harvey Kronberg reports.
As we've reported before, the only public poll in this race shows Bell leading Republican Austen Furse 40 percent to 26.5 percent.
A flyer produced by the Committee to Elect Chris Bell, made available by Quorum Report, makes it clear that a lot has changed in SD17 since Kyle Janek easily won races against minor Democratic opposition.
The partisanship of this district leans Republican, but the environment of the district screams “change.” This district is no longer safe for Republicans.Majorities of likely voters in Senate District 17 say things are on thewrong track (63%) and give negative job ratings to Pres. Bush (53.2%), Gov. Perry (60.3%), and the Republican-controlled legislature (62.4%).
And Chris Bell is exactly the right candidate to take advantage of this political environment.
His name ID within the district is higher than that of U.S. Sen John Cornyn.
His approval rating within the district is a full ten points higher than that of incumbent state Sen. Kyle Janek.
Plus, it appears many Republiucans are willing to take a look at Bell. Given the state of Republican Party, this is hardly surprising.
The percentage of respondents saying that itwould be unlikely that they would consider voting for Chris Be llwas 39.1%, far lower than the Republican performance in SD 17. That same poll shows that more than 20%of Republicans already support Chris Bell, indicating both crossover potential for Chris Bell as well as deep dissention among the Republican ranks.
For those of you unfamiliar with the SD17 race, last month Matt Glazer wrote a guide to the race that you should read.
Jason Stanford, Bell's political consultant who led his 2006 bid for governor, says the former Houston congressman is "leaning" towards entering the race to replace retiring state Sen. Kyle Janek, the Statesman reports.
"Yes, he's leaning toward it and is probably going to make an announcement later this month," Stanford said. "It's not often that a Democrat gets a chance like this."
Another Republican, former Houston criminal district judge Joan Huffman is also in the race.
Furse's consultant had some interesting things to tell the Statesman, too.
"Chris Bell doesn't want to be a state senator. He wants to be a U.S. senator or governor," said Allen Blakemore, Furse's political consultant. "This is a district (Bell) couldn't possibly win. ... This is just a continuation of the Chris Bell publicity stunt to keep his name out there."
Chris Bell's name ID is nearly 80 percent in this district. It is absolutely laughable for Blakemore to claim he is merely trying "to keep his name out there." I guess we should just be happy that Furse is taking advice from someone that delusional.
Furse's main political experience was as an advisor to George H.W. Bush. I am sure the Bell campaign is looking forward to contrasting Bell's experience as a city councilman and congressman representing Houston with Furse's work as a money manager.
Senate District 17 deserves a senator who has the experience and know-how to make a difference from day one, not to mention someone who at least knows what the Texas Capitol looks like.
Looks like another state senate seat is in play for Texas Democrats.
Chris Bell, who is not even a declared candidate yet, is leading Republican Austin Furse by nearly 14 percentage points. The Opinion Analysts poll shows Bell at 40% and Furse at 26.5%.
Even more remarkable, the poll shows Bell's name ID at 74.3 percent. Not only is that way higher than incumbent state Sen. Kyle Janek's name ID (which sits at 47.7 percent) but it also tops (though not significantly) the name ID of John Cornyn who comes in at 73.2 percent.
Janek's low numbers make it clear why his endorsement of Furse does not seem to be helping the young Houston money manager much.
Quorum Report has reported that Republicans such as former state Rep. Brad Wright have used these polling numbers to cast Furse as a weak general election candidate.
Bell has not made a final decision to enter the race (yet). But for those of us who saw him at last weekend's convention, he sure had the look of a candidate.
Meanwhile, the Austin Political Report has reported that Bell is "telling Houston lawmakers that he will run."
Count me in as one who hopes Chris Bell does jump into this race.
