Dallas Mayor Tom Leppert, a Republican, refused to rule out a run in any potential special election race should Kay "Will she or Won't she" Hutchison eventually resign.
It took three times for Brad Watson and Gromer Jeffer's with WFAA's Inside Politics to pull an answer from Leppert that didn't have your stomach queasy from all the political spin:
Opportunities and obstacles come up and if they come up I will deal with them. I am very happy with what I'm doing right now. We are making great progress in the City of Dallas and I think people recognize that. If the opportunity comes up then I'll look at it.
Clearly Leppert is making some of the same calculated assumptions that Mayor Bill White is making. Leppert is a popular Republican mayor of a major metropolitan county that has trended heavily Democratic since 2006. Leppert recently muscled through a sweeping Ethics reform package in the wake of former councilman Don Hill's corruption trial--the same corruption charges that now engulf State Representative Terri Hodge.
Leppert has momentum, and certainly has potential, to shave off quite a few votes in his favor in the North Texas region where his name identification is high. In a special election race with very low turnout numbers that could be just enough to pull him into a runoff. It is the same calculations the White campaign is making: a popular mayor from a major metropolitan area that has trended blue in the last few election cycles. Shave off enough votes in favor of Mayor White in a low turnout special election and it should be enough to catapult him into a runoff.
But again, all of these calculations are based on whether or not Kay "Will she or Won't she" Hutchison eventually resign her senate seat and the answer, as she indicated on Friday, is she will not. Based on this past week's Rasmussen poll showing KBH down 11 points to Perry less than four months away from a GOP primary election is a terrible spot to be in. However, it is indicative of the terrible campaign she has run for governor as well.
It may be intriguing for Leppert to consider a special election run, and I do believe he is giving it very serious thought, but he is a smart enough politician to know that I'm staying right where I am. Hutchison is the most deceptive, stick my finger in the air to figure out which way the political winds are blowing, type politician that we've ever seen. Leppert will position himself to launch a campaign should the opportunity arise, but ultimately it will be for nothing because Hutchison won't resign.
Even though the race may not officially exist yet, there is plenty going on in the race to replace Kay Bailey Hutchison in the U.S. Senate.
If you're in Austin, John Sharp is launching his campaign at Abel's on the Lake at 6pm tonight. Suggested contribution is $35.
Speaking of Sharp, Galveston County Democratic Party Chair Lloyd Criss has a BOR diary up encouraging the former Comptroller to get out of the Senate race and run for Lt. Governor. Criss, as you might imagine, is supporting Houston Mayor Bill White for the U.S. Senate.
Bill White's campaign has named Joe Hamill to be their Central Texas Regional Field Director. Hamill, an Austin native and Austin High graduate, was the Field Director for the Travis County Democratic Party's Coordinated Campaign last year. Austin area supporters for White will also be registering voters at First Thursday on South Congress tomorrow (Facebook event info)
While Whole Foods CEO John Mackey's health care editorial from the WSJ inspired a small protest outside the store's Austin headquarters it also apparently got Russell Verney, a former advisor to Ross Perot, thinking Mackey could be a solid candidate for the Senate. Unsurprisingly, a Whole Foods spokesperson tells the Statesman "there is absolutely no truth to that rumor."
Gardner Selby had a story a few days ago about Austin area legislators taking sides in the U.S. Senate race. Diana Maldonado and Valinda Bolton are hosting Sharp's event tonight while Patrick Rose, Mark Strama and Dawnna Dukes are backing White.
All this and yet, thanks to the indecisive mind of Kay Bailey Hutchison, no election date.
More than seven months after we first wrote about the rumors that Dallas Mayor Tom Leppert may be considering jumpining in the U.S. Senate race if and when the seat becomes open, he rumors continue without the Mayor or his staff doing much to silence them.
I spoke with Leppert's City Hall chief of staff, Chris Heinbaugh, and his political consultant, Mary Woodlief, to tell them I was working on a story about a possible Senate run and to ask for comment from the mayor. The response was radio silence from Leppert—not even a no-comment, just silence, reminding us of his response when we asked for details about his plan for taking over the school system.
The speculation that he will run persists, however, based on the widely held belief that a special election to replace Hutchison would give Leppert a window that won't be open again for another 15 years or more. In other words, it's a chance he can't afford to miss.
Greg noted that if Leppert does decide to run, it could harm the candidacy of State Sen. Florence Shapiro, who is from Plano.
Leppert's lack of strong Republican Party credentials and very low name ID outside of the Dallas area would make the race a clear uphill battle. But, as the Observer's article said, an open seat does not come along often and if Leppert wants to get to the Senate he may not have many better opportunities.
D Magazines's Frontburner blog has reported that Dallas Mayor Tom Leppert, a Republican, is considering running for Kay Bailey Hutchison's U.S. Senate seat.
If Leppert enters the race (which is certainly a big "if"), it would only make the race more difficult to handicap. The Dallas area Republican votes that many candidates -- such as state Sen. Florence Shapiro -- are counting on to keep them viable would be hotly contested.
We could possibly see some relatively high-profile candidates fall flat on their faces in a special election, perhaps receiving less than 10 percent of the vote. Some of the potential candidates are popular but lack a genuine base of support that they could count on in a special election.
Republican sources have told me that the mayor is seriously interested in Kay Bailey’s seat. So I called him yesterday to confirm. He was clearly not happy about the leak. After he stammered around a bit, I told him to take his time and get back to me with a response. This is it:
"I’m flattered that people have suggested me for such an important seat. Clearly, there is a long list of candidates and Senator Hutchison has not even indicated her plans concerning the seat. I’m proud to serve the citizens of and eager to continue working with the City Council on the opportunities and challenges ahead of us."
That is not a no.
I would not expect Leppert to jump in, but we could see some longshot candidates look at a special election and think "what do I have to lose?"
Given that Leppert would probably not do well in a statewide Republican primary, he may see this as his best chance since a special election bypasses a primary. And, remember, special elections do not come along very often -- our last one was in 1993.
Personally, I do not think at this point Leppert is a very viable Republican candidate. It would be wise to complete at least one term as mayor before looking statewide.
What do our Dallas area readers think of a possible Leppert cadidacy for the U.S. Senate?
(The Dallas Mayoral runoff is only days away. We hope that you'll support Democrat Ed Oakley. - promoted by Karl-Thomas Musselman)
Well, I've been wondering when the religious right assault would kick in. And it finally did today. The Dallas mayoral run-off between Ed Oakley and Tom Leppert is next Saturday, June 16. Early voting started June 4th.
Over the past week, and in Leppert's television ads, his campaign has been complaining about the Oakley campaign's "negative" ads, the recent endorsement of Oakley by the Dallas County Democrats (making the race appear to be overly-partisan according to some) and the stories about Oakley's sexual orientation seem to be getting a fair share of the attention in the press. Here and here. And now this. The robocalls. If you're not sure what that is, this overview from Alternet should help.
But back to the Dallas Robocalls...*Update*~ Audio here.
Although this happened last week I saw no comment on BOR and wanted to bring the topic up for discussion.
I don’t believe that party establishment should inject itself in traditional non-partisan races by openly endorsing certain candidates over another. Yes, I know candidates swing one-way or another, but so what? There is nothing restricting an individual, regardless of Party affiliation, from working for, or donating to, any candidate they please, but Party structure I believe should stay out of it.
In the particular case of Dallas, who is riding a successful Democratic wave the last two cycles, the risk of Ed Oakley losing to Tom Leppert, a pro-business conservative Republican with lots of money, would serve to harm the Party’s momentum going into 2008. You don’t need that egg on your face.
As expected, the Dallas Mayor race is headed to a runoff, between the two top fundraisers in the race: Tom Leppert and BOR honorable mention Ed Oakley. BOR honorable mention Don Hill was a distant third. BOR endorsed candidate Sam Coats ran sixth. I do want to give some mad props to Jennifer Gale, as KT alluded to earlier. Ms Gale is a transsexual homeless former Marine who has run for office multiple times. She managed to finish in ninth place out of the eleven candidates!
Other BOR endorsed candidates, Councilmembers Pauline Medrano and Angela Hunt both won decisive victories. Joseph Hernandez and Betty Culbreath will both be sent into June runoffs in their respective races. Jill Kotvis barely missed making a runoff by less than a percentage point. And as for me, John McClelland, I lost by a decisive margin.
Click here for the Dallas County joint election totals.
