Texas Democrats, Post Primary Storm

by: Glenn Smith

Wed Mar 05, 2008 at 01:43 PM CST

It is the proverbial thunder over the hill. Democrats are back. Everywhere.

There is a lot of loud whistling in the dark from Tom Craddick supporters about whether they gained votes or didn't lose votes or were given a low bail-bond to get out of electoral jail temporarily. And it's true that some Craddick-Ds won, but not because Democrats had a referendum on Craddick.

Instead, it's because Democrats attracted more than a million new and just-getting-informed voters to the polls. Would it have been better if anti-Craddick D's had won? Of course.

A million new people suited up as Democrats for battle. They haven't yet aimed their weapons at the most corrupt House leadership in Texas history. But that clicking sound is the sound of a million hammers being pulled back.

And by the way, as Phil wrote below, there were no real gains by Craddick. And Democrats had already gained three anti-Craddick votes since the session through special elections and party switching.

Would it have been possible to inform these new voters? The truth is, given the short fuse on this primary -- we only knew a few weeks ahead of time that the presidential hurricane was coming here -- it is highly doubtful that resources could have been marshaled. Craddick cronies were a bit lucky. They were already trying to buy their way out of trouble. And the massive spending by his corrupt contributor network just bought themselves a lot more scrutiny in November.

Brief tactical note:  It's quite obvious these new voters are not political junkies, they are concerned and engaged citizens. They are not watching Hardball or Olbermann. Communicating with cable t.v. alone will not be sufficient to turn new and low information voters into repeat, high information voters.

To compare, Rick Noriega won without a runoff in this context of new, low-information voters. He spent his money on the networks. Which these new voters are watching.

2008 TX Primary Results: "Craddick D" Races

by: Phillip Martin

Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 06:28 PM CST

Here in Texas, there's been a major split around the controversial Speaker of the House, Rep. Tom Craddick. These four Democrats (highlighted in red), who supported Speaker Craddick, drew challengers, and whether or not they win or lose -- coupled with other key TX House races we're watching in other threads -- could signal the potential defeat of Speaker Craddick.

To see a full list of how the TX House candidates are doing tonight, follow this link:

TX House Primary Races to Watch

2008 TX Primary Results: Key Republican TX House Races

by: Phillip Martin

Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 06:27 PM CST

The battle over the Speaker's race is being fought out in the TX House, as well. Here are some of the key races that will give us an indicator of how Speaker Tom Craddick is doing across the state. All of the incumbents on this list supported Craddick, except for the last one, Haggerty.

To see a list for the results of all the TX House races, click here:

TX House Primary Races to Watch

2008 TX Primary Results: Statewide Races

by: Phillip Martin

Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 06:27 PM CST

Here are the statewide results:

2008 TX Primary Results: Other Key TX House D Races

by: Phillip Martin

Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 06:26 PM CST

The "Craddick D" races aren't the only races to watch. Several incumbent Democrats have been targeted by conservatives this cycle in their primaries, as many conservative consultants run "shadow" pro-Craddick campaigns in the TX primary. Here is a look at those races as well. For space purposes, several of these races are above the fold (Miles vs. Edwards, Escobar, Moreno races) and several others are below the fold. We'll adjust this as the night goes on and we know which races become a priority.

To see a full list of how TX House candidates are doing tonight, follow this link:

TX House Primary Races to Watch

Where to Vote and How to Follow Tonight's Election Results

by: Phillip Martin

Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 09:00 AM CST

Happy voting -- here's where to vote in Texas' biggest counties:

• Travis County polling places
• Harris County polling places
• Dallas County polling places
• Bexar County polling places
• Tarrant County polling places
• Collin County polling places
• El Paso County polling places

Following Tonight's Resuluts 

Burnt Orange Report - All Things Texas
Buckeye State Blog - All Things Ohio

You can watch CNN and MSNBC -- I will, just to see how much they say and when they say it. I'm interested to see how far the analysts get ahead of the numbers, just in the interest of trying to "call" something. But we promise to have the latest numbers -- and measured analysis -- throughout the night and well into the morning, if need be.

Later today, we're going to have 6 posts that will be constantly refreshing as numbers come in -- remember, there's more than just the Presidential race coming in. Those posts will be:

1. Presidential Primary - Will include a Senate District breakdown
2. Federal Races - U.S. Senate (Rick Noriega), CD-10 (Grant. vs Doherty), & other federal races
3. TX House, DEM Primary - Lots of big primary races for our state legislature
4. TX House REP Primary - Lots of big primary races for the other side as well
5. Statewide Races - All of Texas' statewide races
6. Other Races - Mainly county races around Texas

As the night goes on, we will loosen up our structure as we can. I will ask, though, that our readers remember: almost the entire writing staff will be caucusing and out watching returns at parties. I'll be doing my best to steer the ship, but there's only so much I can do. Please help me out by commenting, sending me e-mails, and continuing to return and watch numbers.

TX Primary: Early Vote Totals Through Thursday, 2/28

by: Phillip Martin

Sat Mar 01, 2008 at 08:00 AM CST

This is a daily feature through the early vote period of the TX primary.

The following links take you to spreadsheets based on the numbers from the Secretary of State's website that shows the early vote totals for the 14 counties with the highest numbers of registered voters:

Texas Primary Early Vote Totals Through 10 Days
Day-by-Day Analysis of Early Vote Totals 

The highlights of today's numbers:

• Just looking at these top 14 counties, there is already an increase of over 584,000 voters from this time in 2004. Abso-freaking-lutely amazing!

• Just these large counties will easily exceed 800,000 and could exceed the entire statewide 2004 Pres. primary turnout total of 839,231

• Harris County has already doubled entire 2004 primary turnout of 71,000, even before today.

Top Ten YouTube Moments of the Presidential Campaign

by: Phillip Martin

Fri Feb 29, 2008 at 00:30 PM CST

Feel free to disagree with my order in the comments, and let me know which ones I missed. Watch all 10 videos below the fold...

Is the TDP Going to Get Sued by the Clinton Campaign for the Caucuses?

by: Phillip Martin

Fri Feb 29, 2008 at 07:15 AM CST

The Texas Democratic Party is warning that its March 4 caucuses could be delayed or disrupted after aides to White House hopeful Hillary Clinton raised the specter of an "imminent" lawsuit over its complicated delegate selection process, officials said Thursday night. [...]

In a letter sent out late Thursday to both the Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama campaigns, Texas Democratic Party lawyer Chad Dunn warned that a lawsuit could ruin the Democrats' effort to re-energize voters just as they are turning out in record numbers.

Spokesmen from both campaigns maintained there were no plans to sue before the March 4 election.

"It has been brought to my attention that one or both of your campaigns may already be planning or intending to pursue litigation against the Texas Democratic Party," Dunn said in the letter, obtained by the Star-Telegram. "Such action could prove to be a tragedy for a reinvigorated Democratic process."

"Officials from Senator Clinton's campaign at several times throughout the call raised the specter of 'challenging the process,' the official said. "The call consisted of representatives from both campaigns and the Democratic Party."

The source, who did not have authorization to speak about the matter on the record, said Clinton's political director, Guy Cecil, had pointedly raised the possibility of a courtroom battle.

But Adrienne Elrod, Clinton's top Texas spokeswoman, said campaign and party officials had merely discussed primary night procedures and that the campaign was merely seeking a written agreement in advance. She could not elaborate on the details of the agreement the Clinton campaign is seeking. "It is our campaign's standard operating procedure that we need to see what we are agreeing to in writing before we agree to it," Elrod said. "No legal action is being taken. We have no reason to take any legal action."

Obama spokesman Josh Earnest said the Obama campaign had no plans to sue.

"We're confident that by working closely with the Texas Democratic Party and the Clinton campaign we'll have a caucus that Texans can be proud of -- because every eligible voter will be allowed to participate and have their vote counted in a timely manner," Earnest said.

A lawsuit about the caucuses would be the most damaging way to proceed with this -- to date -- incredible presidential campaign in Texas.

Obama Pulls Slightly Ahead in TX Poll by BELO

by: Phillip Martin

Thu Feb 28, 2008 at 10:00 PM CST

____Feb 25-27__(Feb 24-26)__(Feb 24-25)

Obama.....46%......(45%).......(43%)
Clinton.....45%......(46%).......(46%)

Here are the links to the poll data:

Poll Summary (pdf)
Poll Crosstabs (pdf)

From the summary:

Five days out from the Texas Democratic presidential primary, the race remains a dead heat, but Barack Obama now leads Hillary Clinton by a 46%-45% margin. Over the past three nights, Obama's number have improved from 43% to 46% and Clinton's have slipped one point from 46% to her current 45%. The race continues to trend slowly but steadily toward Barack Obama, keeping in mind these changes are slight and within the margin of error.