Now for some bad news. While Texas as a state increased its Democratic share of the vote by 14.29%, some counties just didn't get the "Change" memo. Six counties dropped in Democratic percentage in the Presidential race from 2004. Now, this comes with a major caveat: Galveston County dropped, and vote totals and turnout was down as well. Hurricane Ike is the likely culprit here, something I will explore in much more depth further on. This can also account for the small drop in Democratic percentage in Jefferson County. However, I don't think this accounts for why Democratic vote share dropped a whopping 27.07% in Orange County, unless the hurricane literally washed away every last Democrat in the district.
Again, these are percent-change numbers, or the rate at which margins, turnout, etc. are increasing or decreasing. In the final column, I added the raw vote margin swing in the county, which looks at the partisan margin of actual votes, and how much it changed in four years. Negative numbers mean gains in actual votes for Republicans over Democrats, positive numbers mean gains for Democrats over Republicans.
Democratic Decline in Vote Share
County
Democratic % Change 2004-2008
Vote Total Change
Voter Turnout % Change
Raw Vote Margin Change
Orange
-27.70%
-7.84%
-2.00%
-5047
Bowie
-12.65%
4.22%
-0.22%
-3436
Galveston
-3.93%
-0.92%
-2.72%
-3082
Angelina
-1.89%
2.78%
1.20%
-560
Statewide Averages
14.29%
9.00%
5.18%
743518
Also dropping were Jefferson (-0.78%) and Johnson (-0.77%).
The good news is that even in these counties where we're losing ground, we're not losing a tremendous volume of votes in our overall statewide total. Since these are not terribly populous counties, either, it won't have a huge impact state-wide. In a bit of good news, Dallas County alone swung 122,594 additional raw votes for the Democrats in 2008 over 2004, thanks to huge increases in Democratic turnout and a sizeable drop in Republican votes. I'll also note that there are another ten counties that made gains in Democratic percentage, but did so at a rate of 1-10%, lagging behind the rest of the state and country.
It is also possible that Orange and Bowie counties have a significant number of people who refuse to vote for an African-American. I did enough phonebanking for Obama throughout the primary and general election to be sure that such folks are out there. (Though it was highly, highly amusing to hear a conservative tell me that he didn't think anyone "wouldn't vote for Obama because he was Black." Work the phones, dude. See for yourself. Go canvass Arkansas.)
Some further analysis of down-ballot voting can start to clear this up. In Orange County, Barack Obama did worse than any other Democrat on the ballot. Rick Noriega outperformed Obama by 3.60%, garnering 29.60% of the vote. In the Railroad Commissioner race, Mark Thompson earned 38.83%. The county covers two State Rep districts. Democrat Larry Hunter won 39.76% of the vote against Mike Hamilton, and Democrat Joe Deshotel didn't even have a Republican opponent (however, his district encompasses only a very small part of Orange County).
All in all, however, to lose ground in only two counties--and not terribly populous counties at that--isn't the worst news. Perhaps we can broker a deal with the Texas GOP: they can have Orange and Bowie, and we can have the other 252. Finally, on this Thanksgiving weekend, if you're traveling to any one of these counties, please recognize that your neighbors are unlikely to greet you as liberators with arms full of flowers and candy. But feel free to canvass your neighborhood and ask folks if they still demand everyone support the Office of the President of the United States, no matter what.
Let's look at which counties made the strongest percent gains in Democratic votes from 2004 to 2008. Where is Texas turning blue the fastest? Through comparing Democratic percentages in Presidential races from 2004 and 2008, we can see where our party is making the fastest gains. Note that this is measuring percent increase, or rate, rather than strictly how many more percentage points the Democrats gained. In short, it shows where we're either closing the gap the fastest, or pulling away the most quickly. I've also included the percentage of the votes earned by the Democrats in 2004 and 2008, and any change in overall turnout.
Fastest Percent Increase in Democratic Vote
County
Percent Increase in Democratic Votes
Democratic % 2004
Democratic % 2008
Percent Increase in Turnout
Bell
31.29%
34.07%
44.73%
7.92%
Collin
30.77%
28.11%
36.73%
5.12%
Cameron
30.33%
49.16%
64.07%
1.83%
Lubbock
29.56%
24.12%
31.25%
3.90%
Guadalupe
28.41%
26.55%
34.04%
8.81%
Denton
27.16%
29.46%
37.46%
5.93%
Williamson
27.06%
33.63%
42.73%
6.41%
Hildalgo
25.79%
54.86%
69.01%
1.66%
Webb
25.51%
56.92%
71.44%
3.74%
Statewide Averages
14.92%
34.14%
43.68%
5.18%
These are huge gains in important areas. Each of these counties increased their Democratic percentage by over a quarter in only four years. This suggests that these counties are ripe for continued large gains, and two of them--Williamson and Bell--look ready to flip blue in the next two cycles, if the right factors emerge. It's great to see Williamson on there. The WilCo coordinated campaign did an excellent job this cycle and elected Diana Maldonado to the TX House. Brian Ruiz also stepped up to offer voters a choice over Jack Carter. Most importantly, precinct conventions gave Williamson Democrats a chance to realize they weren't alone, and reinvigorate local organizing.
But there's something else interesting here: Democrats are making huge gains along I-35 and in the suburban counties north of Austin and Dallas. These are areas in which populations are growing rapidly in Texas. This bodes well for the future--more people voting increasingly Democratic helps get the work done even faster.
I'd also like to note our gains in Bell County, home to Temple and Fort Hood. It's definitely worth a precinct-by-precinct analysis to see exactly where in the county we're making gains. I remember registering voters at BatFest this summer in Austin, and talking to several servicemen and women based out of Fort Hood who were excited to vote Democratic.
Finally, again we see drastic, dramatic gains in South Texas-Cameron, Hildalgo, and Webb. And this is without huge increases in turnout. Imagine if we could organize and boost turnout to average levels across the state! Just think about it!
As I mentioned the other day, I've been doing some comparisons of Democratic turnout in 2004, 2006, and 2008. Basically, I'm trying to figure out where we're increasing our margins, where we're losing ground, where turnout is up, what we can predict for 2010, all that good stuff. I'm doing this with an eye to where Democratic grassroots organizers and the Texas Democratic Party alike can look to make the most gains.
First, a note on methodology: I'm using vote totals published on the Secretary of State website. For 2004 and 2008, I'm looking at the Presidential Race. For 2006, after some consideration I decided to go with Hutchison vs. Radnofsky, in part because the Governor's race that year was a four-way train wreck, and because I think looking at Dem performance against KBH can only be helpful with an eye to 2010 (because cough she's obviously running for something state-wide cough). There also wasn't much drop-off in vote totals from the gubernatorial or lieutenant governor's race.
One other thing: I'm looking at the 40 most populous counties, as well as all of those that border on Travis. If anything, sample performs slightly worse the state as a whole in terms of Democratic margins, and frankly, with 254 counties, it's a bit much to do them all. Plus, with an eye to organization in 2010 and beyond, it makes more sense to look where the people are, as this is where we can make the biggest gains in raw votes.
Let's start with some good news.
More counties went Democratic in 2008 than in 2004.
In 2004, Democrats carried only 5 counties: Webb, El Paso, Travis, Hildalgo, Jefferson. This year, that number is up to 9, with the notable inclusion of three huge (literally) urban counties: Bexar, Dallas, Harris. We also added Cameron, expanding the Democratic strength of South Texas and its predominantly-Hispanic electorate.
Let's take a look. Here are our 9 Democratic counties, their state-wide population rank, percentage of votes for the Democratic presidential candidate, percent turnout, percent increase in Democratic-ness from 2004-2008 (in other words, Obama's improvement over Kerry), and percent increase in turnout from 2004-2008. I've also added statewide averages below for comparison.
Democratic Counties In Texas
County
Population Rank
Democratic %
Turnout %
Dem % Inc. 2004-2008
Turnout % Inc. 2004-2008
Webb
20th
71.44%
44.4%
25.51%
3.74%
Hildalgo
8th
69.01%
42.83%
25.79%
1.66%
El Paso
6th
65.87%
47.67%
17.42%
4.54%
Cameron
10th
65.07%
43.37%
30.33%
1.83%
Travis
5th
65.05%
65.05%
14.02%
8.07%
Dallas
2nd
57.27%
61.2%
17.00%
9.58%
Bexar
4th
52.4%
56.42%
18.07%
7.91%
Jefferson
14th
50.83%
58.22%
-0.78%
4.69%
Harris
1st
50.44%
59.79%
13.22%
8.45%
Statewide Average
43.68%
59.50%
14.29%
5.18%
Notice anything? We're doing well where the people actually live: we now hold 9 of the 20 most populous counties. These are all either urban counties, or counties in South Texas where the Latino population is growing sharply.
Urban Counties Rising First off, picking up Harris, Dallas, and Bexar was huge in terms of raw vote totals. Harris sharply stepped up its county-wide coordinated campaign effort this time, and likely benefitted from multiple campaign offices engaging the citizens. Next, look at turnout percentages. Dallas, Harris, Bexar and Travis had higher-than-average turnouts and percent increases over 2004. The urban counties really got the job done in terms of turning out their now-majority of Democratic voters.
Huge Potential in South Texas Data from South Texas and El Paso tell a slightly different story. Turnout in these counties was lower than state-wide averages, and while all counties increased overall turnout from 2004, the increase did not keep pace with state-wide levels. This is frustrating when you consider how fast South Texas is getting more Democratic. Our margins there are growing rapidly--over 25% increase in Democratic percentages! That's huge! Higher turnout would really boost raw Democratic vote totals.
Democrats: Go South and Organize I'm not blaming the voters: I'm blaming the local and state-wide campaigns, and the state party for not finding ways to turn out our voters. We need to invest in South Texas. Look at the percentage of Democratic voters! Hell, it's worth standing on a street corner and telling everyone to go vote-we'll net four votes for every ten who do it!
Clearly, this first round of numbers shows the need of the Texas Democratic Party--and Democratic candidates' campaigns--to invest in the growing Hispanic majority. As long as we, as organizers, let these voters stay home, we destroy our best chance of state-wide victory. In short: run an effective field campaign in South Texas.
What do you see in the data? Why did Jefferson become less Democratic? Any local races that might have effected turnout?
Next up: who's getting more Democratic the fastest, and where are we losing ground?
