This is the first in a series of posts examining the future of Texas Politics that I hope to write. I intend to examine ongoing demographic and political shifts in detail, and look to the future of statewide elections, Congressional and State Legislature elections, and redistricting.
Texas is the second largest state in the Union, after California.
Texas has been, for several years, a majority minority state.
Texas has 34 electoral votes, which will increase to 37 or 38 for the 2012 Presidential Election.
On the Presidential level, Texas has been one of the primary pieces (if not the primary piece) in the Republican Electoral College puzzle for years.
On the State level, Texas has not voted for a Democratic candidate for anything Statewide since 1994.
Yet if we can extrapolate from current trends, at some point in next decade Texas will become a bona fide purple swing state. Then it will become a blue state. Then it will become a linchpin of the Democratic electoral coalition, and as Texas flips, modern Conservative Republicanism as we know it will face mortal danger.
Texas has made many headlines in recent years for the spate of exonerations of wrongfully convicted men. In most of these cases, fortuitous turns of events, along with the hard work of innocence advocates, led to solid proof that eyewitness evidence was mistaken. The same is true in the latest case, in which a Dallas judge released two men based on evidence developed by students at two of the state's university-based innocence projects.
Claude Simmons Jr. and Christopher Scott were released from custody in Dallas on October 23 based on new evidence of innocence, including the corroborated confession of one of the true perpetrators. According to prosecutors, it was mistaken eyewitness testimony that convicted the men for a 1997 murder. The two had already served over a decade of their life sentences when the innocence project students persuaded Dallas D.A. Craig Watkins to review the cases and pursue the exonerating evidence.
Senator Hutchison (who you might have heard is running for governor), published an op-ed last week in a couple of Texas papers about how the ACES Bill would cripple Texas. We've pushed back, and actually got something printed in one of those old-timey-newspaper thingies in one of the papers that ran her op-ed, the Round Rock Leader. (I know, quaint-- right? newspapers? Who reads those anymore? < end sarcasm>)
Have a read here for the whole thing, or if you're in North Austin or WillCo, go pick up a Round Rock Leader. I've posted an except below:
United States Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison takes a head-in-the-hot-sand approach to climate change that will get Texas burned and drive tens of thousands of new jobs elsewhere ("Cap and Trade is No Good For Texas," Aug. 27 Leader). She misses the mark on energy policy, using discredited industry statistics to drum up fear about a Cap and Trade policy that represents just a small portion of the initiatives proposed in the energy bill that passed the House of Representatives in July.
She fails to acknowledge that the bill includes provisions for renewable energy and energy efficiency - the real solutions to climate change. Hutchison's solution is no solution at all: more oil, more coal and more nuclear, with absolutely no coherent policy on how to lower energy costs and find alternatives to dwindling resources.
America is faced with the worst economic crisis in generations, Sen. Hutchison is turning away opportunities to create new jobs while slavishly clinging to the talking points of the oil industry.
Progressives who don't know Pete Sessions have taken his his statement about disruptive town hall meetings out of context, as if he were challenging the screamers to "bring it on." But those of us in the District know that Pete Sessions is a coward. Re-read the Politico article and you'll meet a man who pines for a fantasy town hall meeting that never existed, where only "15 or 20 of your friends show up." But in today's town hall environment he's in his element. The screamers are his base. In this video, he answers a woman's health care concern by throwing them some red meat:
As the health care debate keeps heating up, there is an onslaught of rallies, meetings, town halls filled with people who have passionate feelings about this issue. These are the voters who will make a difference in November 2010. Lamar Smith has voted no on health insurance reform, no to providing health care to poor, uninsured Texas children, and it's time that we say NO to Lamar Smith.
To get our message across, I need your help to print these flyers and distribute them at every health care and political event you care to attend. This will ramp up the pressure on those who want to stand in the way of progress. They can be printed in black and white or color and be cut in half to save on paper. Hand them out, put them on car windows, use them where ever people are interested in health care on both sides of the issue. I want CD21 voters, including those in Smith's own party, to understand that he's not working for The People. And I need them to know that just like you, I already AM working for The People. The intended audience is all voters, the majority of whom agree with these basic principles: stop the pre-existing condition discrimination, make insurance portable, and end financial crisis due to catastrophic and chronic health care.
For my benefit in creating future messaging, I'd appreciate it if you would look at the flyer and tell me what you think. Collectively, we'll create the message that voters cannot ignore. At Ronnie Earle's event the other day all the cars were flyered with John Sharp info. Yes, blanketing the area is a great way to tell voters there is already an alternative to the status quo in Congress. I need everyone who is able to help out with this.
I hear the audience is growing at both the Schertz and Kerrville Lamar Smith town halls on Monday. I hope to see you there!
If you get a phone call tonight it could be from your Congressman. Chet Edwards is holding a telephone town hall meeting tonight between 6:30-7:00pm, and will call over 200,000 households throughout the twelve counties of Texas' 17th Congressional District. It should be expected that those phone calls will be filled with questions about the Obama Administration's health care reform plan. Many of the people that Edwards will talk to tonight will be critical of the plan to reform health care. It is evident from reading the internet forums, the comment sections of local media, and the letters to the editor that conservative constituents, that comprise a significant portion of this district, are critical of Edwards and have expressed their disapproval. However, in reality the people that should be expressing their disapproval are Progressives. While Edwards may not be conservative enough for some of his constituents, who would never vote for a Democrat, he may be losing support from the very people that help him get elected. While conservatives may have the loudest concerns with Edwards, progressives have the most legitimate concerns with Edwards.
Health care is one of the most important issues facing Americans today, and perhaps the most significant problem in the health care system is the number of uninsured people in America. The National Coalition on Health Care notes that "nearly 46 million Americans, or 18 percent of the population under the age of 65, were without health insurance in 2007." According to Health Affairs, due to the economic recession the number of uninsured people in America will increase by 6.9 million by 2010. Bloomberg reports that health-insurance premiums for families have risen 119 % since 1999, and in the last fifteen years America has increased the amount it spends on health care from $912 billion to $2.5 trillion and the amount of uninsured has only increased.
Edwards states that his goals are "lowering costs, maintaining competition and choice, and preserving quality health care." However, the most significant way to lower cost is to provide a public option, without a public option it is unlikely that health care reform will actually be able to significantly lower the cost of health care. Also, the idea that Edwards supports maintaining competition and choice suggests that there is current competition and choice, while for many Americans that only competition is the choice they have to make on whether or not they will actually be able to afford health insurance. It is obvious that "preserving the quality of health care" is important, but the real goal should be expanding access to the quality health care that is currently not available to many Americans. It is often said that the best quality health care can be found in the United States, however, who is that health care actually available to?
After weeks of Representative Lloyd Doggett taking the heat from anti-health care reform protesters, the shoe is finally on the other foot. Representative Lamar Smith, who has avoided facing his constituents on this issue up to now, has scheduled two health care forums in our district to listen to his constituents on Monday, August 24th.
This is our opportunity to voice our support for health care reform and show that this can be done with respect, dialogue, and without needing to use vile, divisive language.
Rep. Smith has scheduled these events only for San Antonio and Kerrville, but will be attending a Chamber of Commerce luncheon on Sept 2nd at the Hyatt in Austin. If you want to let him know that you'd like him to change his vote to yes on reform, please go to any or all of these events. He is looking for letters from constituents, so come prepared with lots of letters.
Local grassroots organizations are working on a combined effort to show a united front for reform. Contact Moveon, Organizing for America and your local democratic party for more information.
We need to make it clear to Rep. Smith that we will remember his no votes at the election booth in 2010. I am counting on that! If you are a supporter of health care reform, please support my campaign.
The events:
Kerrville (open to the public):
August 24, 9:30 a.m.
The Kathleen C. Cailloux City Center for the Performing Arts
910 Main Street
Kerrville, TX 78028
San Antonio (open to the public):
August 24, 12:30 p.m.
Schertz Civic Center
1400 Schertz Parkway,
Bldg. #5 in the Municipal Complex
Schertz, TX 78154-1634
Austin ($55 cost to attend):
Congressman Smith Shares Updates On Policies That May Impact Your Bottom Line
WHEN: Wednesday, September 2, 2009 11:30 AM - 1:00 PM
WHERE: Hyatt Regency Hotel, 208 Barton Springs Road, Foothills Ballroom, 17th floor, Austin, TX 78704
This weekend was a testimony to the strength of the community as a whole when organizing pools all the local resources. The Health Care Rally effort led by Organizing for America was joined by practically every local democratic club and organization including the Travis County Democratic Party and the strength of Texans for Obama. The success was particularly due to the additional support lent by our elected officials, Chair Andy Brown, Senator Kirk Watson, Mayor Lee Leffingwell, Congressman Lloyd Doggett, Council Member Sheryl Cole, Former Representative Ann Kitchen, who all put their names and support behind this important issue. I'd like to think that the rest of us, the candidates, grassroots organizers and volunteers who also supported this effort helped to build the crowd which has been estimated between 600 to 1000. This was the biggest rally in the country, again proving to the Obama administration that you can't mess with Texas.
In addition to the incredible success of this rally, I personally worked with friends in a rummage sale to benefit an Austin family in dire need due to health care crisis. The outpouring of support was awe-inspiring. We had hoped to raise about $1K at best, but when the day was done, it became clear that we more than doubled our expectations and was able to give $2400 to this very needy family. The donations poured in, the street was packed for 2 blocks in each direction, and we were all shocked and amazed all day by the generosity and love in this community.
In one day, I witnessed the very best of our community. I am very proud to be a Texan.
There were some interesting votes in Congress this week that effected District 21. Representatives Gonzales and Smith put out a statement in support of the passage of H.R. 3170, the Financial Services Appropriations bill, which included $4 million for a new federal courthouse in San Antonio. Representative Gonzales voted for passage of the bill, but Representative Smith voted with the Republican party against the bill.
On the same day, another statement was released by the San Antonio Congressional Delegation about the passage of H.R. 3183, the Energy and Water Development and Related Agencies Appropriations Act, which included over $3 million for San Antonio area projects. Again Representative Smith voted with the Republican party against this bill, while the three other San Antonio Representatives voted for the bill.
In one day, the other representatives were able to bring in over $7M for local projects, while Lamar Smith voted no.
Help me say no to Lamar Smith. Please support my campaign to bring change to Texas District 21.
Just outside the city of New Braunfels, Texas thrives a town called "Gruene." One would be hard pressed to miss this town. Although you must travel down a long 2 lane road, follow a few signs and make a couple of turns as dust swirls in your rear view mirror; nestled by the Guadalupe River, you will find Gruene, Texas along with a sign that simply states, "Gently resisting change since 1872."
The history of this town is much like the history of the United States. In the mid 1840's German farmers settled in Gruene. Ernst Gruene and his family were the first to build their homes in Gruene where they used the surrounding land to plant cotton. As with many investments, cotton became the number one cash crop and with that brought more families to Gruene. New families meant new homes, different styles, and new businesses to include a cotton gin. A dance hall and saloon (Gruene Hall) were also built which served as the heart of the community's social life.
The original cotton gin burned in 1922 and was later replaced by a modern electric model. The Depression along with the disasters to the cotton industry all but shut down the once bustling town. Gruene Hall was the only "business" spared. For close to 50 years the town remained a ghost of what once was. In the mid 1970's much of the Gruene estate was sold ushering in a new era of business and a new and thriving community.
If you think this is an essay on the "History of Gruene, Texas" you would be mistaken. This is the story of America embodied by a small town in Texas. Although just about everything in Texas is bigger, Gruene remains a charming town filled with shops offering everything from furniture to gourmet coffee. The old cotton gin serves as a restaurant and Gruene Hall hosts the likes of George Strait and Lyle Lovett. The town bodes something for even the most discriminating of tastes.
"Gently resisting change since 1872." You will not find yourself bartering with cattle for your meal. Gruene does have ATM machines. You see, although Gruene maintains its charm, it has changed. The families who first settled in Gruene came looking for a better life, each bringing the best they could offer to their community. This was the foundation. When the old cotton gin burned down, a new, more advanced one replaced it. When hard times fell upon the nation, thus affecting the town, the landscape changed.
For this small town it took close to 50 years for new life to be brought back into the empty stores, along with a great deal of hard work and restoration. Our nation is facing trials not seen since the Great Depression which swallowed Gruene. There are a great many stores that must be rebuilt, mills to be replaced and a community of people that must work together for the greater good. Much like "Gruene Hall," Texas serves as the center of the community which even in the face of devastation never failed. We have watched as some of our elected officials have sat for decades in office and we are now suffering from the failed policies, politics and promises they made. As Texans, we are proud of our state. We are proud of our history. As Texans we must not allow that same pride to stand in the way of progress. We may have a new, more modern cotton gin, but a great many of our stores remain cloaked in cobwebs of times long past. Will we choose to suffer the devastation that held Gruene captive for over 50 years, or will we stand Texas proud as Gruene Hall, whose music echoes in the streets and begin our restoration. I'm ready. Are you?
