Governor +11 | Perry 48% White 37% Undecided 11% (AJP)
+10 | Perry 50% White 40% Glass 08% Shafto 02% (UT/TT)
+09 | Perry 51% White 42% Undecided 05% Other 02% (RAS)
I won't get into methodology other than to say AJP was essentially a lobby issue poll with horse-race questions tacked on, the UT/TT poll finally pushed leaners but is still a YouGov Internet Poll, and Rasmussen is, well, Rasmussen. For a state as big as Texas with a hot race, it's been entirely disappointing how little quality polling is done here. I don't say that because all the polls show Perry and GOP candidates ahead- they are, but I'm about 100% positive that next cycle, I'm going to have Burnt Orange Report partner with a non-partisan polling firm and help fix this.
Thoughts- I've never seen 3rd Party candidates poll this high in Texas. Up to 15% of the vote in the Railroad Commissioner race is potentially tied up between the Libertarian and Green party. The GOP sponsored Green Party appears to be well on its way to getting the 5% needed to get automatic "fuck with the Democrats" ballot access in 2012. This could be due to a lack of oxygen and awareness of downballot races. It's also an expression of a very angry electorate that without other information, is willing to vote against both the Republican & Democratic parties.
While White is closing the gap in the Governor's race, it's marginal- not to mention there are a week's worth of votes already cast. It's not a question of just winning all the undecideds, it's forcing some of Perry's voters to switch to White (or Libertarian Kathie Glass). There is some hope there as the UT/TT poll notes...
While 72 percent of White's voters support him "very strongly," only 53 percent of Perry's voters say the same. Glass has very strong support from 40 percent. All of Shafto's voters say they only "somewhat strongly" support her.
According to the UT/TT poll, the GOP has an +18 generic congressional ballot lead and a +15 generic state legislative ballot lead. Governor Perry's job approval is 45/37 compared to President Obama's job approval of 35/59 of which only 14% strongly approve and 53% strong disapprove. When 9 out of 10 voters who disapprove of Obama, stongly disapprove, and that makes up a majority of the electorate... that says it all.
Little surprise that Rick Perry has worked to nationalize the Governor's race. Now he just has to decide if he wants to run for President in 2012 or for an unprecedented 4th term as Governor in 2014... if he wins re-election eight days from now.
The Democratic primary for the Lieutenant Governor's race has been, to this point, less than exciting for a lot of Texas Democrats, except for one important sub-group: those people who have had the privilege to hear directly from Linda Chavez-Thompson.
Perhaps that's why this is the one race where the staff of BOR is exercising our editorial judgment over the voting preference of our readers. After all, the recent poll on the Lieutenant Governor's race showed Chavez-Thompson with 18%, former Travis County District Attorney Ronnie Earle with 16% -- and, to quote the Texas Tribune, "a whopping 58 percent remain undecided on the eve of early voting." It's not surprising to us that our BOR readers -- a majority of whom reside in Austin -- would support Earle, if for no other reason that they know something about him and they don't know a lot about Linda Chavez-Thompson.
So let us tell you about Linda Chavez-Thompson, the Democrat we endorse for Lieutenant Governor.
Linda Chavez-Thompson got her first job in Texas at the age of ten, working for thirty-cents an hour hoeing cotton with her family. She picked cotton, cleaned homes, and learned English when she should have been finishing high school -- all so she could support her family. In her youth, she learned the values of protecting Texas families and ensuring every Texas child has the best education possible. It is amazing to hear Linda Chavez-Thompson talk about how her days growing up in Texas instilled in her the strength, intelligence, and passion she has carried with her throughout her life.
The rest of her lifetime of public service is well documented. From a ten-year old picking cotton in West Texas, she became the first woman and first person of color to serve as Executive Vice-President of the National AFL-CIO. And in that time, she -- unlike her wealthy billionaire opponent, incumbent David Dewhurst -- always put the best interests of Texas families first. One fellow blogger wrote passionately about why she is supporting Linda Chavez-Thompson:
Until we elect somebody like Linda, who understands what the rest of Texas goes through, our state won't develop policies designed for everybody to succeed. Linda Chavez-Thompson has been working for those less fortunate not just her entire career, but her entire life.
We agree. We endorse Linda Chavez-Thompson for Lieutenant Governor, and hope you get to hear her story directly very soon.
Last Thursday, Texas Monthly political writer Paul Burka attempted to explain the possible line of succession, challenges, pressures, cock blocks, and puppeteering going on in the Texas Republican Party during the next two years.
Needless to say, reading it might leave your head spinning.
Well, anything that can't be explained with words can be explained by a totally ridiculous chart. So on that note, I present to you my masterpiece. Click here for the gigantic printable version.
(Tuesday is the final deadline to pass all bills in the House and Senate. With the esteemed Houston Senator gone, voter suppression is back on the table for the sinister David Dewhurst. - promoted by Matt Glazer)
The Austin American Statesman reports this morning
AUSTIN — Sen. Mario Gallegos, who received a liver transplant earlier this year, will go to Houston for a surgical procedure and may not return to Austin for the rest of the legislative session, Gallegos' spokesman said.
Against his doctor's wishes, Gallegos has been in Austin for the last couple of weeks. The Democrat from Houston has missed most of the session.
His absence leaves an opening for Lt. Gov. David Dewhurst to bring up a bill to require voters to prove their identity, which brought the Senate to a standstill this week. Without all 11 Democratic senators on the floor, Republicans have the minimum votes needed to start debate.
So we've hit Election Day, and it's time to sum up our BOR endorsements. We already have Barbara Radnofsky for Senate and Ted Ankrum for CD-10.
The following are written after consulting the full BOR writing crew. Among those that responded, the general feeling was divided, but hardly out of strong opinions (different in each case). So weighing those, here are the remaining Burnt Orange Endorsements.
Marked by a lack of campaign news a notch above Gene Kelly and a level of caring among activists about as high, our endorsement of Ben Grant is hardly one of a hard-line nature. A teacher, Grant has served the state in public service as a State Rep for 10 years, six of those as Chair of the House Judiciary Cmte., District 71 Court Judge, and 17 years as a Judge of the Sixth Court of Appeals. A member of the Dirty 30 Reform group, Grant can add to the ethics message for November's election. He's also been endorsed by the Dallas, Houston, San Antonio, Austin, and other state papers.
Simply put, Grant can stand up to Dewhurst in experience as a candidate, having already served the state, bringing a certain level of credibility and fundraising ability to the race, something lacking in his opponent Maria Alvarado, the remaining candidate of a pair of Alvarado's, one of which never made it on the ballot. While some feel that we should toss away the Lt. Gov position in order to aid Bell in the governor's race with a Hispanic candidate to aid turnout, we disagree with the notion. Alvarado, while a fine woman with a noble calling to service, cannot match Grant or Dewhurst in background or experience and with little to no money will have a marginal effect on any race. It will only be seen by the media and most Texans as feeding the narrative that Democrats "gave up" this year in state elections as viewed by our slate of nominees.
While opinions were more available for this race, many are supportive of the quality of both candidates and cautious to endorse at all, prepared to support either nominee 100% in November. That being taken into account, BOR endorses Valinda Bolton in today's primary over Jason Earle.
Surprising most by becoming the lead vote-getter in March, Bolton made wise use of her more limited funds (1/3 that of Earle) with volunteers, the Statesman and Chronicle endorsements, and TV to get her this far. Having also been endorsed by the Sierra Club and Annie's List (among many others), Valinda has brought the type of ground game to this race which will be needed heading into November to upset either Alex Castano or more likely Bill Welch, avidly anti-choice Republicans in an area similar to Donna Howard's more pro-choice district.
District 47 has also proven to be more favorable electorally to Democratic women, an advantage she can easily press this fall. Her background with Domestic Violence solutions and programs, adds a needed perspective to a House chamber that must realize that funding our social services and health care system are related to healthy and safe families, which make for a more economically viable Texas.
Current Representative Raymond missed winning his primary against 3 opponents outright by less than .2% of the vote. We see no reason at this time to encourage anyone to replace him in representing his South Texas district. In 2 years, he may run against Cuellar (as he almost did this year) and for that alone 2 more years in the Texas House on his resume would be worth it. He has our full endorsement.
Borris Miles finished 2nd to Blogosphere favorite (in a bad way) Rep. Al Edwards, most widely known for his sponsorship of the "Sexy Cheerleader" bill last session. Often named 'furniture' by Texas Monthly and a water carrier at times for Speaker Craddick, it's hard for any of us not to support his ouster, even if it means Pink Dome loses half their traffic. Borris Miles is a fully competent candidate with the backing of local blogger Greg Wythe who has supported him from the beginning. If you live in Houston, this is the race for you. Let's clean up our caucus if we can.
So we've hit Election Day, and it's time to sum up our BOR endorsements. We already have 
