BOR: - TX-Gov

The Implications of State Senate Terms on 2014 Statewide Races

Burnt Orange Report — Thu, 24 Jan 2013 16:23:43 GMT

The State Senate drew straws yesterday to determine if each has a 2 or 4 year term before running for re-election. This is customary after an election following a redistricting year in which all Senators must run.

The draw has some major implications for our 2014 statewide races here in Texas on both sides of the aisle, starting, of course, with State Senator Wendy Davis of Fort Worth, a tireless campaigner who drew a 2-year term.

Many Democrats were eyeing Davis as a potential gubernatorial candidate in 2014 owing to her fundraising prowess and staunch support of education. Had Davis drawn a 4-year term, thus giving her a "free pass" to run statewide in 2014 without giving up her senate seat, she would have had tremendous encouragement to take the leap and run for governor. Now, her decision becomes somewhat more complicated.

Here are the results from SD-10 in the 2010 and 2008 statewide elections, courtesy of the Texas Legislative Council:

2010 Results in SD-10
38.9% Turnout

Governor
Rick Perry: 52.7%
Bill White: 44.6%
Margin: R+8.1%

Lieutenant Governor
David Dewhurst: 58.2%
Linda Chavez-Thompson: 38.8%
Margin: R+19.4%

2008 Results in SD-10
66.4% Turnout

President
John McCain: 52.1%
Barack Obama: 47.1%
Margin: R+5%

US Senate
John Cornyn: 52.1%
Rick Noriega: 46%
Margin: R+6.1%

Davis won election in 2008 by 2.4% over a Republican incumbent, and won re-election in 2012 by 2.3% over a former State Representative.

Below the jump, find out why Democrats should still be optimistic about Davis in 2014, and what the implications are for the Republicans.
Make no mistake, should Wendy Davis run for re-election to the State Senate -- which I think she will -- she will have a well-funded campaign that again sits at the top of the priority list for Democrats in 2014. In addition to being a statewide leader on education and healthcare issues, Davis is the crucial 12th Democratic state senator, providing us a one-vote cushion to block Republican legislation thanks to the two-thirds rule.

While those 2010 numbers are bracing, several factors should give Democrats hope:

Bill White was able to come very close to the 2008 Obama numbers, suggesting that voters can be persuaded here by strong, well-funded campaigns. And remember, Wendy Davis won in 2008 while Obama did not carry SD-10.
Turnout in midterms is usually lower, so that gives Team Davis more potential voters to target for GOTV and a lower number needed to get them to the polls to win. It also makes the impact of any overlaying Democratic or progressive efforts all the more powerful.
Congressman Marc Veasey's district overlaps with SD-10 and he will be running for re-election for the first time, so ideally he will be able to drive African-American turnout in the district.

Davis will have the funding and the support she needs to run a winning campaign. There's no way to prognosticate now and know if we'll see a Tea Party wave (or any other wave) in 2014 yet, but I'm confident she'll pull it out if she runs for re-election to her senate seat.

Senator Kirk Watson pulled a 2-year straw, and while I'm excited to vote for him again in 2014 this is another case of a statewide leader on budgetary transparency and good government who would be forced to choose between running statewide and winning re-election to his senate seat. Should he go for higher office, his seat would remain reliably Democratic.

Over on the Republican side, State Senator Dan Patrick probably has the worst set of options right now, drawing the two-year straw.

He has signaled some interest in running for Lieutenant Governor and got into a bit of an email spat with Senator John Carona over which man might hypothetically replace The Dew had he won his US Senate race (which he didn't). Meanwhile, Jerry Patterson is running for Lt. Gov (and has the bumper stickers to prove it!) even if that means challenging incumbent David Dewhurst. Other potential candidates include comptroller Susan Combs, fresh off under-estimating statewide revenue by $9 billion, who might also take a tilt at the #2 job in the state.

Should Dewhurst run for re-election -- and why not, what else would the Dew do? -- this is probably his weakest moment, coming off a defeat in the US Senate primary. I've got to assume Patrick is polling the field and assessing whether giving up his seat in the Senate is worth gambling on the Lieutenant Governorship in a crowded Republican field.

Dr. Donna Campbell, who I still can't quite bring myself to call "Senator Campbell," drew a 2-year term. While that shouldn't necessarily give Democrats much hope since SD-25 is still a deep red district, it but does present the possibility of a Republican primary challenge from the slightly less, ahem, reality-challenged faction of the Republican party. Dr. Donna shocked many in Texas when she defeated incumbent Jeff Wentworth in a run-off after a three-way primary including former Railroad Commissioner Elizabeth Ames Jones. Those of us who watched her relentless campaigning in 2010 against Congressman Lloyd Doggett -- in which Campbell rode a Tea Party wave to win all but one county in the district, that of Travis -- were perhaps less surprised, given the intensity of her supporters.

Campbell refused to meet with editorial boards during the general election and has largely avoided public scrutiny. Now it will be interesting to see how she tries to position herself knowing that she has to face the Republican primary electorate again in a little over a year.

So who runs for Governor in the Democratic side if Wendy Davis decides to seek re-election to the State Senate?

San Antonio Mayor and national rising star Julian Castro has already ruled it out.

Democrats still have some real work to do to win statewide, but we have tremendous potential and immediate gains that can be realized from smart investment in base mobilization. Our Latino, African-American, and Asian populations present tremendous opportunity for Democrats in Texas, and national attention is again focusing on the real viability of turning Texas blue in the next decade.

It's time for a candidate with the potential to galvanize this wave of minority Texas voters to step up to the plate, and the donor community needs to get behind this person as well. Our most successful candidates for higher office tend to come up from the legislature, so it's worth looking to see which of our Democratic state representatives have the energy and drive to campaign hard for two years in order to move the needle and help make Texas a true swing state, and eventually a blue state.

Kinky Friedman Considering Yet Another Run for Governor

Karl-Thomas Musselman — Wed, 08 Aug 2012 20:03:54 GMT

After losing the Democratic primary for Ag Commissioner in 2010, humorist and songwriter Kinky Friedman is once again making waves in the political press by signaling his interest in running for Texas Governor in 2014. In conversations with reporter Wayne Slater, Friedman outlined a number of his 'mistakes' in his last run for the state's highest office.

He says he made mistakes last time - running as an independent rather than a Democrat, emphasizing the comedian instead of the problem-solver, disciplining himself around a message that voters really care about. "If I could establish the seriousness, that I am a serious soul that nobody takes seriously, to quote my old friend Billy Joe Shaver, then I think you've really got something."

Friedman says he would be committed to running as a Democrat this time.

"The main thing is to defuse the idea of being a comedian or even being an independent. I'm an independent-thinking Democrat and I've been a Democrat way further than most of my detractors," he said. "It would have to be what you show the Democrats during that primary, and if you can show them a different side of Kinky Friedman, and it's definitely there. Most of us realize the real comedian is already in the Governor's Mansion."

Being a comedian would imply that Rick Perry's tenure in office has been funny- if anything, Perry's leadership has been sad, not funny. There are hundreds of thousands of Texans without healthcare and quality public schools that aren't laughing. Plus, the last story Burnt Orange Report wrote about Kinky Friedman was about his appearance alongside Republican Congressman Lamar Smith for a fundraiser in 2010 shortly after his failed bid as a Democrat for Ag Commissioner.

Kinky needs some better material lest he make himself the laughing stock of Democratic primary voters once more.

Update: One of the joys of Burnt Orange Report having being around over 9 years is that we've seen this story before right here on our own pages. How little things change.

Dallas Christians Call on Rick Perry to Repent

CoolOnion — Sat, 16 Jul 2011 20:38:14 GMT

If you've ever been in downtown Dallas on a Good Friday, you've probably seen people walking silently, some carrying signs bearing Bible verses, others carrying accompanying signs highlighting statistics on the plight of the poor, the sick and the hungry in Dallas and the state of Texas.

That's Dallas Area Christian Progressive Alliance, a group of theologians and laity, calling upon politicians claiming to be Christians to actually enact policies that improve the plight of "the least amongst us."

Today, DACPA has issued an open letter to Rick Perry, calling upon him to repent, a word which means "go a new way."

Below are excerpts from the statement; for the entire letter, please visit DACPA's blog at this link: Dallas Area Christian Progressive Alliance
Excerpts:

Dear Governor Rick Perry:
You have called for August 6 to be a day of gathering "in humility and repentance." The Dallas Area Christian Progressive Alliance joins this call for repentance, a word which means to "go a new way." We call for repentance when we consider the condition of our state, the mandate from God to love our neighbors, and the vision of the future that is the answer to our prayers. We embrace government as one way to follow God's will on earth as it is in heaven. Jesus called the NATIONS to judgment. The prophets he came to fulfill-Amos, Jeremiah, Isaiah in particular-condemned the governments of their day, the kings, for not serving the poor and the oppressed....

Jesus says that the nations who care for the sick are "blessed," while those who do not he says are "accursed" (Matthew 25:31-45) Texas is first among all states in the percentage of citizens who are uninsured, and ranks number 41 in health services. Let us go a new way toward health care and health security and turn from the road that leads to the fate of the accursed...

...Jesus also considered nations accursed when they do not welcome the stranger, alien, outsider, immigrant. (Matthew 25:31-45) Immigrant children who have only known life in the United States have been denied the opportunity to have legal status here and instead they and their families are often targeted for hatred and abuse by those who wear the name "Christian." Let us walk a new path toward a blessed country that creates just laws that represent that we truly "love our neighbor."...

...The earth and all that is in it belongs to God (Psalm 24:1). We are called to be stewards of God's creation, not its destroyer. Texas is the biggest polluter in the country, leading the nation in carbon dioxide and cancer-causing emissions. Let us go a new way by protecting the creation with which we have been entrusted...

The letter is well-worth reading, and is a good material to forward to anyone you know who's been parroting right-wing religious talking points without really thinking them through.

Read more about DACPA at their website, Dallas Area Christian Progressive Alliance, and watch videos of recent projects at their YouTube channel DallasChristians.

Willing to bet Texas is about to grab a bunch of federal dollars

Tug — Thu, 30 Jun 2011 20:55:37 GMT

Alright friends, longtime-reader, first-time poster.

As you all are undoubtedly aware, we are in a drought.

The papers reported this week that the drought has been officially declared by the federal USDA:

see http://www.statesman.com/news/... )

This is a problem, and it needs to be addressed.

Now, if you go back to 2003, when Susan Combs was the Ag Commissioner, she and Kay Bailey H managed to get $10 million in federal relief for the drought stricken farmers.

http://www.brownsvilleherald.c...

I am not opposed to this policy, but wanted the wise and vigilant readers of BOR on the case to monitor who gets paid what (family farms vs corporate entities), what the application process is, AND.... is Rick Perry willing to turn down federal money.

It is good to stay on top of these things when Republicans start kvetching about state's rights, federal mandates, secession, welfare cheats, generally stupid appraoches to economics, hypocrisy and logic basically turned on its head.

Stay on them, everybody - at some point Republicans might start to figure out that we are all in this together.

Thanks.

Texas Republicans Would Cut Jobs, Pension, and Medical Benefits for Texas Veterans & Their Families

Phillip Martin — Thu, 11 Nov 2010 16:32:15 GMT

Happy Veterans Day. For those veterans who think Texas Republicans are here to help you, think again.

Texas Governor Rick Perry, Lieutenant Governor David Dewhurst, and Speaker Joe Straus have joined with Republicans at state agencies to call for massive cuts to state agencies. Rick Perry, in particular, has made it a point to rail against government jobs. That counts, as well, for those few people who help our veterans navigate the bureaucracy of veterans benefits. From the Austin American-Statesman, "State agencies offer up 9,800 jobs to close budget shortfall"

The Texas Veterans Commission would lose 21 jobs , including three employees who help the families of wounded veterans find jobs. Thirteen of the eliminated positions — nine of which are now occupied — would be claims counselors who help veterans apply for medical and pension benefits with the U.S. Department of Veterans Affairs.
A veteran's chances of maximizing his or her federal benefits go up considerably when aided by the counselors, who can navigate the VA's labyrinthine bureaucracy and speak its distinct language, said Victor Polanco , a veterans counselor at the VA clinic on Montopolis Drive. "It can be cumbersome," he said.
Eliminating all 13 claims counselor positions would have the effect of reducing federal benefits to Texas veterans and their families by $88 million over the two years, and the state would lose $3 million in sales tax as a result, the agency estimates.

Family values, indeed.

On Final Day, Perry Predicts Rangers Will Lose Series and Releases His Book Early on Accident

Phillip Martin — Tue, 02 Nov 2010 06:26:25 GMT

Just for the record, Perry spent his final day of campaigning:

Predicting the Rangers would lose the World Series, then walking it back:
Perry compared election day to big athletic events: “Tomorrow is the final day of the World Series; it’s the Super Bowl,” which prompted his spokesman later to emphatically clarify that the governor was not predicting the Rangers would lose Monday night, but fervently rooting for the series to be extended.
Accidentally releasing his book early and then trying to cover it up -- to no avail, I have a copy right here -- all while explaining why he thinks Social Security is a failure. The mistaked caused the campaign by surprise and sent them into "damage control": First, from the Associated Press, "Rick Perry's new book focuses on states' rights"
The excerpts, which appeared on the publisher's website, were no longer available for viewing Monday evening. The book's publisher, Little, Brown and Co., did not immediately respond to a message left by The Associated Press.
Although Perry has made similar comments on the campaign trail, the release caught his campaign staff by surprise. They were going to release excerpts after Tuesday's election.
White pounced on Perry's thoughts on issues such as the Voting Rights Act and said the governor referred to Social Security as a Ponzi scheme. A pro-White crowd in Corpus Christi booed.
Perry repeatedly declined to address the excerpts during a Monday campaign visit to a San Antonio restaurant, specifically questions about whether he equated Social Security to an illegal scam.
"You don't know what's in there," he said. The book is going to come out at the appropriate time."
Actually, Governor, we know a little of what's in there. I have a copy right here. The Statesman described the "damage control":
White, apparently seeking to paint Perry as an extremist who is not focused on Texas, chided the governor during a stop in Corpus Christi on Monday after the Fort Worth Star-Telegram reported that Perry's book calls Social Security a failure and compares it to a Ponzi scheme.
White called Perry's views on Social Security "alarming."

"He is trying to audition to be sort of a celebrity in the far right wing," White said.

An excerpt of Perry's book on his publisher's website was quickly taken down, but the report of his comments on Social Security put his campaign in damage-control mode.

Again -- the copy was pulled, but you can read the excerpt of it right here. And Perry can try to avoid the Social Security conversation all he wants, but the fact remains that both the Washington Post and Politico honed in on those comments, as did the Associated Press, Austin American-Statesman, Dallas Morning News, San Antonio Express-News, etc. I have not checked to see the television stories, yet, to see where else it was picked up.

Let's remember -- this is the same campaign that:

Hosted the Rick Chicken Perry press conference at Bill White HQ in Austin, one of the worst press conferences in Texas political history.
Got their YouTube channel pulled down, one of their many social media fails
Saw their candidate flail during an hour-long interview with Evan Smith of the Texas Tribune, Perry's only "debate" of the year
Botched the release of their first television ad
Lost their "shock and awe" Willie Horton day to a push, once it was released that Perry cleaned the public records of 2,800 sex offenders

I'm sure I'm forgetting more, but it's pretty easy to see -- this is not the stuff of Presidential campaigns.

Rick Perry Calls Social Security a Failure and a Ponzi Scheme

Phillip Martin — Mon, 01 Nov 2010 19:20:27 GMT

From the Star-Telegram preview of his latest book:

In its 240 pages, Perry covers a wide range of federal issues far beyond those he's touched on repeatedly on the campaign trail this year.

He calls social security a "failure" and compares it to a Ponzi scheme.

Only two things you can do about it:

Go vote -- find your voting location here
Help get out the vote for Bill White

Rick Perry's Cover-Up and Corruption: A Ten Part Series

Phillip Martin — Mon, 01 Nov 2010 02:00:00 GMT

Rick Perry is a corrupt career politician who will say and do anything to get elected. He is, without question, in it for himself. The ten-part series below focuses on some of the worst examples of his cover-ups and corruption.

If you have more to add, please leave them in the comments below. You can also see the full list of these articles here: Rick Perry's Cover-Up and Corruption:

Rick Perry's Cover-Up and Corruption: Texas' $25 Billion Budget Shortfall

Phillip Martin — Mon, 01 Nov 2010 01:15:00 GMT

Ed. Note: This is the tenth and final part of a ten-part wrap-up of Rick Perry's history of cover-up and corruption that will run on Burnt Orange Report today.

There has not been a bigger or more important cover-up this election cycle, and perhaps for decades in Texas, than Rick Perry's refusal to come to grips and be honest about the $25 billion budget shortfall facing the state of Texas. Our state's budget crisis is going to devastate the future of our economy for years, if not longer, unless Texans do something about it immediately.

For months, Rick Perry has done his best to cover-up the state’s $25 billion budget shortfall, which is now “proportionately larger” than California’s. From the Dallas Morning News, "Legislature likely to cut deep to meet possible $25 billion budget gap."

Texas faces a budget crisis of truly daunting proportions, with lawmakers likely to cut sacrosanct programs such as education for the first time in memory and to lay off hundreds if not thousands of state workers and public university employees.
Texas' GOP leaders, their eyes on the Nov. 2 election, have played down the problem's size, even as the hole in the next two-year cycle has grown in recent weeks to as much as $24 billion to $25 billion. That's about 25 percent of current spending.
The gap is now proportionately larger than the deficit California recently closed with cuts and fee increases, its fourth dose of budget misery since September 2008.

In recent months, Perry has been wildly erratic about the amount of the budget shortfall, at times saying it is nothing to worry about and only $10 billion large, and other times suggesting it is a major financial crisis that could be $21 billion large. When Bill White and Texas lawmakers requested the Comptroller to provide updated revenue estimates, Perry insisted on covering-up the budget projections and called the simple request for taxpayer transparency “bizarre.”

Perry has been quick to blame Washington and the national economic environment for the state’s budget shortfall. The Austin American-Statesman, however, has pointed out repeatedly that such a claim is highly disingenuous, in a column, "Budget mess got going with 2006 property tax cuts":

The economic downturn isn't helping the shortfall, but it's not driving it, either. The driving factor is a decision by Gov. Rick Perry and the Legislature in 2006 to reduce property taxes by $14 billion every two years and raise only about $9 billion to replace that money. In other words, the Legislature committed $5 billion every two years to holding down property taxes instead of spending that money on education, public safety or other priorities. Then the state's new business tax brought in drastically less than projected, and that $5 billion gap turned into a nearly $9 billion gap.

Additional Sources - Austin American-Statesman

Additional Sources

Rick Perry's Cover-Up and Corruption: Texas' Dropout Crisis

Phillip Martin — Mon, 01 Nov 2010 00:30:00 GMT

Ed. Note: This is the ninth part of a ten-part wrap-up of Rick Perry's history of cover-up and corruption that will run on Burnt Orange Report today.

Rick Perry has done his best to cover-up Texas’ dropout crisis, pushing false dropout numbers to hide the fact that at least 3 in 10 Texas high school students do not graduate from high school or get a GED in four years.Perry has spent months arguing about statistics instead of focusing on the true consequences of Texas’ dropout crisis, whatever the size.

Dropouts earn thousands of dollars less than high school graduates each year, and hundreds of thousands of dollars less over a lifetime.
Dropouts are more likely to be unemployed, pay less in taxes and be incarcerated -- all factors that hurt the Texas economy to the tune of $5 billion to $9 billion annually.

As the Houston Chronicle reported in their story, "Poverty, dropout rates bode grim future for state", the dropout crisis will have serious long-term damage to our state’s economy if Rick Perry continues to cover-up the problem:

If nothing changes, average Texas household incomes will be about $6,500 lower in 30 years than they were in 2000, according to Murdock's projections. That number is not adjusted for inflation, so it would be worse than it appears.

The Houston Chronicle also went on to tackle Perry's lies about the dropout crisis in a column, "Falkenberg: Whopper is too big to let pass"

In the face of years of research showing the rate upwards of 30 percent, and as high as 50 percent in some large urban districts, Perry's camp insisted it was only about 10 percent.
"The percent of students who enter high school and eventually earn a diploma or equivalent, or who remain in pursuit of a diploma or equivalent, is 90 percent," Perry spokesman Mark Miner told the Chronicle's Gary Scharrer.
The number prompted laughter from a few, including Republican state Rep. Rob Eissler, chair of the House public education committee.
"Yeah. That's not what I base my stuff on," said The Woodlands lawmaker, who believes the figure is about 30 percent. "You've got to categorize that as a bit campaign rhetoric. If our dropout rate were just 10 percent, I'd be feeling a lot better."

Additional Sources