TX-23: "...one last bitter taste of unexpected defeat."

by: Karl-Thomas Musselman

Tue Dec 12, 2006 at 10:17 PM CST

The outcome will determine whether the Republican Party will get a little holiday cheer at the end of their worst election campaign in many years, or get one last bitter taste of unexpected defeat.

As my roommate just pointed out, having been in SA all day, Ciro was first elected to Congress in 1997 in a special election. That race, featured 9 Democrats (including now State Senator Carlos Uresti who went on 2 months later to win HD 118 which Ciro vacated after winning his seat in in TX-28), 5 Republicans, 1 Independent, and 5 write-ins. That 1997 race also went to a run-off after Ciro won 46% of the first round vote. He got 67% of the vote in the runoff against Democrat Juan Solis, III.

UPDATE: With all 267 precincts reporting, the results are:

Henry Bonilla (R) -  32,165  45.68%
Ciro D. Rodriguez (D) -  38,247  54.32%

AP Calls Race for Ciro

by: Karl-Thomas Musselman

Tue Dec 12, 2006 at 09:06 PM CST

Former U.S. Rep. Ciro Rodriguez defeated seven-term Republican incumbent Henry Bonilla in a runoff on Tuesday, adding another Democrat to Congress and deciding Texas' final congressional seat.

Rodriguez's win gives Congress another Democrat after the party won control of Congress in the November elections. Texas added one Democrat already in the suburban Houston 22nd Congressional District once held by Republican Rep. Tom DeLay.

95% of the vote in Bexar is in. Ciro holds with 56.3%.

Take that Tom DeLay.

Posts to check out on BOR still being updated.

County by County Relative returns
Sec of State Total Returns to Date

And a beautiful picture from Swing State Project you must see.

And a nice map of where phone calls were made around the country (and Canada!) for Ciro with OnlinePhoneBanking.com.

BOR Calls Race for Ciro Rodriguez

by: Karl-Thomas Musselman

Tue Dec 12, 2006 at 08:28 PM CST

Burnt Orange Report is calling TX-23 for Democrat Ciro Rodriguez.

(The only thing that would mess things up is if the data is off. Along those lines, the SOS says there are 92 Precincts that Bexar can report and Bexar says there are 151 precincts that it can report. Either way, the amount reported on each page is the same % of precincts.)

Update: Bexar County just updated. Now says 75% reporting for the county. Ciro at 58.4% in Bexar.

Update 2: Check the posts below for more updates on existing totals and charts. Ciro's won this things. Congrats to the DCCC to whom major credit must be placed for winning this election. Those folks have been great and put their money where their mouth was. Looks like we just saved ourselves some time and money in 2008. And to think, Ciro had originally dropped out of this race back when he first filed before dropping back in. Looks like he's just dropped back into Congress.

TX-23: Ciro Expands Bexar County Lead

by: Karl-Thomas Musselman

Tue Dec 12, 2006 at 08:15 PM CST

Bexar County Election Day returns are starting to come in but not reported to the SOS yet.

U.S. Rep, Dist 23

Vote For  1

  (WITH 151 OF 151 PRECINCTS COUNTED)

  Ciro D. Rodriguez (DEM).  .  .  .  .  .  25,603  56.24  13,757  11,846

  Henry Bonilla (REP) .  .  .  .  .  .  .  19,921  43.76  10,730  9,191

Ciro is up to 58.5% of the vote in Bexar County.

Update: Ciro just won Culberson County, hahah. Bonilla had 53% of the vote there last month. Ciro just won it with 53.4%. Of course, there were only 146 votes out there compared to 397 last month.

Update 2: Ciro also won Brewster County, taking it away from Bonilla.

TX-23: Latest Results from Sec. of State

by: Karl-Thomas Musselman

Tue Dec 12, 2006 at 08:07 PM CST

Updated as of 10:05 PM CST

TX-23: County Comparisons

by: Karl-Thomas Musselman

Tue Dec 12, 2006 at 07:42 PM CST

Check the Sec of State for full results.

FINAL

County	DEM 11/7	DEM 12/12	Dem +/-	IN
MAVERICK	71%	86%	15%	DONE
DIMMIT	68%	75%	7%	DONE
ZAVALA	67%	83%	16%	DONE
EL PASO	64%	65%	1%	DONE
PRESIDIO	61%	65%	4%	DONE
VAL VERDE	54%	49%	-5%	DONE
BEXAR	53%	56%	3%	DONE
TOTAL	51%
BREWSTER	47%	52%	5%	DONE
REEVES	46%	43%	-3%	DONE
UVALDE	45%	40%	-5%	DONE
TERRELL	43%	38%	-5%	DONE
PECOS	41%	34%	-7%	DONE
CULBERSON	40%	53%	13%	DONE
KINNEY	39%	34%	-5%	DONE
SUTTON	37%	27%	-10%	DONE
MEDINA	37%	32%	-5%	DONE
JEFF DAVIS	37%	37%	0%	DONE
HUDSPETH	33%	22%	-11%	DONE
CROCKETT	30%	22%	-8%	DONE
EDWARDS	23%	20%	-3%	DONE

TX-23: Ciro Wins Bexar Early Vote 56/43

by: Karl-Thomas Musselman

Tue Dec 12, 2006 at 07:15 PM CST

Bexar County Elections has the Early Vote in.

U.S. Rep, Dist 23

Vote For  1

  (WITH 0 OF 151 PRECINCTS COUNTED)

  Ciro D. Rodriguez (DEM).  .  .  .  .  .  11,846  56.31%  11,846

  Henry Bonilla (REP) .  .  .  .  .  .  .  9,191  43.69%  9,191

The Democratic combined vote in Bexar County on Nov 7th was 53%.

TX-23: Turnout Update

by: Karl-Thomas Musselman

Tue Dec 12, 2006 at 07:11 PM CST

Bexar County elections administrator Jacque Callanen predicted that some 20,000 residents of the county would vote today. She noted that 18,500 people had voted early and an additional 2,300 had voted by mail.

She said there are 259,000 eligible voters in the county in District 23, which stretches from San Antonio's far Northwest Side to the South Side and west to El Paso. The district includes nearly 700 miles of the Texas-Mexico border.

...

One election official on the Northwest Side, considered a Bonilla stronghold, said that 180 voters had turned out as of mid-afternoon. Earlier in the day, he had predicted as many as 500 voters in the two voting precincts, which combined had more than 5,000 registered voters would cast ballots in the hotly contested congressional race.

Elections officials in West Texas said they were not expecting a heavy turnout, but they cautioned that the vote tabulation might be slow because many residents were using paper ballots rather than voting on electronic machines.

Don't expect the early results to be accurate of the entire district. That last line is key as this is a huge district and man of the smaller counties will be using paper ballots. San Antonio should be faster but has had a history of being slow itself compared to the rest of the urban metro's in the state.

But here's what I see as good news and you can compare the two counties to the chart to the post below this one on this page.

Paula Hoover, the Hudspeth County clerk, said fewer than two dozen of the 1,594 registered voters had turned out to vote early. She expected about 110 people in the sparsely populated county would cast ballots today.

Hudspeth County was Bonilla's 3rd best county %-wise with 414 total votes cast on Nov 7th.

In nearby Brewster County, Isabel Segura LaSoya, the elections administrator in Alpine, said about 600 people had voted, "a heavier than normal turnout," given the election was midweek in the middle of December.

Brewster was a swing county on November 7th, the closest to the average.

TX-23: November 7th Breakdown

by: Karl-Thomas Musselman

Tue Dec 12, 2006 at 07:00 PM CST

County	DEM	REP	DEM %	REP %	Total	Turnout
MAVERICK	2,521	1,051	71%	29%	3,572	13.99%
DIMMIT	1,084	506	68%	32%	1,590	20.86%
ZAVALA	871	438	67%	33%	1,309	16.43%
EL PASO	1,263	699	64%	36%	1,962	0.52%
PRESIDIO	487	313	61%	39%	800	14.74%
VAL VERDE	3,600	3,102	54%	46%	6,702	25.27%
BEXAR	42,791	37,449	53%	47%	80,240	8.92%
TOTAL	63,624	60,175	51%	49%	123,799	8.69%
BREWSTER	1,135	1,277	47%	53%	2,412	42.78%
REEVES	872	1,004	46%	54%	1,876	28.18%
UVALDE	2,322	2,861	45%	55%	5,183	31.97%
TERRELL	222	289	43%	57%	511	63.00%
PECOS	1,225	1,735	41%	59%	2,960	37.37%
CULBERSON	158	239	40%	60%	397	20.76%
KINNEY	396	623	39%	61%	1,019	42.26%
SUTTON	223	374	37%	63%	597	22.05%
MEDINA	3,479	6,022	37%	63%	9,501	38.03%
JEFF DAVIS	376	654	37%	63%	1,030	55.34%
HUDSPETH	135	279	33%	67%	414	25.12%
CROCKETT	304	713	30%	70%	1,017	35.31%
EDWARDS	160	547	23%	77%	707	47.13%

TX-23: Last SUSA Poll

by: Karl-Thomas Musselman

Tue Dec 12, 2006 at 06:36 PM CST

Bonilla (R): 51% (53)
Rodriguez (D): 47% (46)
Undecided: 2% (1)

My only notes on it are that the Hispanic subset in this poll are higher and more in line with what the district will likely produce. Additionally, those polled on who they supported in the Nov. 7th race is interesting with 6% of Bonilla's voters flaking to Ciro, only 1% of Ciro's voters flaking to Bonilla, and those that didn't vote in the first round but plan to today breaking for Ciro 49/43.

Anyways, we'll have hard numbers in about 45 minutes.