Texas and Illinois were the first two states where candidate filing was due to close. Then the US Supreme Court gave Texas one extra day.
But nonetheless wander down below the fold to see how both parties are going at filling the slate in the first two cabs off the rank in the 2012 cycle.
I was asked recently by some out of staters on what the Texas congressional delegation might look like after redistricting. There has been concern that with Republicans controlling the Governor's office, both legislative chambers, and all the members of the Legislative Redistricitng Board (not to mention adding 4 new seats) Democrats could face more losses.
While I won't put anything past the GOP in Texas when it comes to redistricting there are two factors that I believe will moderate the damage.
The first is that for the first time since the 60s, a Democratic led Justice Department will review our maps to ensure they meet the Voting Rights Act standards for African American and Hispanic seats.
The second is the Republican gains in 2010 of TX-17, TX-23, and TX-27.
As such, our delegation will now be a 23-9 GOP to Dem majority; that's before we talk about adding an expected 4 seats in redistricting. Even with our creative map-makers I don't see how you could draw all 4 new seats to be Republicans and try to create a 27-9 map that passes muster with the Justice Dept. Based upon population estimates, there is a general expectation that the new districts would probably end up with 1 each in Houston, Dallas/Fort Worth, somewhere around the I-35 corridor between DFW and Austin/San Antonio, and then one in South Texas.
DFW currently has ~7 Congressional seats and only 1 of those is a Democrat. I'm not sure how you add a seat there and not force a 2nd Democratic seat to come into existence when you consider the Democratic shift in Dallas. I'm also not sure how you create another seat in South Texas and protect both TX-23 and TX-27. I don't see how you can create 3 Republican districts along the border. Something has to give.
In Central Texas, I would guess they may just draw Lloyd Doggett back into Austin and pack his Democratic seat again in order to create an I-35 seat that's more safely Republican. As far as Houston, there's just so many people that you can probably create whatever you want, but you have to start with the Voting Rights Act districts and work out from there.
If we had the same map in 2 years that we do now (as if there was no redistricting), I would say we'd probably pick back up TX-27 and then TX-23 for a 21-11 map. That's the natural balance of the currently drawn map under 'normal' conditions. If you have to draw in 4 more seats, Democrats would have to get 1 of them and it's possible that we could get 2 if the GOP ends up having to try to protect their pickups this year. That's the silver lining of course, in that Democratic losses in 2010 leave very few takeover targets for the GOP while adding 3 more Republican incumbents who will want to be protected.
So all things considered, I think both the Dems and the GOP will add 2 raw seats to their delegations with Dems having a chance at picking up another 2 by defeating currently held Republican seats. It could also be a total wash in the case the GOP loses TX-23 and TX-27 but instead wins 3 of the 4 newly created districts meaning both sides pick up 3 seats for a net change of zero.
Another challenge will be the GOP's 2 new Hispanic Congressman. Canesco in TX-23 (Ciro's seat) will have to be defeated in a General Election, it's hard to make his seat more Republican without making it less Hispanic so the VRA will probably keep him competitive. Bill Flores in a new TX-17 (Chet's) could be vulnerable to a Anglo primary challenger given the Republican party's recent history with defeating sitting Hispanic Republicans (see: Victor Carrillo). I'm not exactly sure what happens with Blake Farenthold in TX-27 which is a Hispanic district now with an Anglo Republican Congressman. Though to be fair, Anglo Democrat Gene Green represents a African American Hispanic district in Houston and has for years.
With 24 million people, 36 districts, and Republicans drawing the maps, anything is certainly possible, but there is not much more damage to be done to the Democratic delegation at this point in Texas and entirely possible that it will be at worst a wash with the chance to even gain a net seat or two in 2012.
The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee is back with a big buy in the TX-17 race between Congressman Chet Edwards and "Bailout Bill" Flores. I have to imagine that the alleged DCCC reallocation of funds last week was nothing more than a head fake to Republicans, because this ad is very strong and is supposedly got a big buy behind it:
Bill Flores received an $11 million taxpayer funded bailout of his failing business. Flores signed a document agreeing to repay the full $11 million.( Dallas Morning News, 10/9/2010)
When the business went bankrupt Flores admitted "the deal worked fine for everyone but the federal government"(Dallas Morning News, 10/9/2010)
After bankruptcy Flores and his business partners went on to make millions.
The taxpayers are still owed 7.5 million
There's another web ad -- posted by the YouTube account "billfloreslies" -- below the fold
With the only polling in the 17th Congressional district coming from the Republican candidate Bill Flores, it's not entirely surprising that Democratic incumbent Chet Edwards would share his numbers as well.
Yesterday the Edwards campaign released internal polling showing he's trailing Flores by 4 points, as compared to the 12 point deficit Flores's poll showed three weeks ago. Edwards' longtime pollster Bennett, Petts & Normington released a memo outlining their findings.
Findings from our most recent survey conducted October 4-5 show Chet Edwards gaining ground and moving into a tight race with challenger Bill Flores. Over the lass 3 weeks Edwards has cut Flores' margin by more than half, with the race closing from ten points own to only four. Currently, Edwards received 42% of the vote while Flores receives 46% and 11% are still undecided in the race for Congress in TX-17. In a district where Republicans outnumber Democrats by a margin of two-to-one, Chet Edwards is in a neck-and-neck race with his opponent.
The Edwards campaign stated their internal numbers had him down 10 points three weeks ago, which would track with the Flores campaign poll from that time showing a 12 point gap. That gives some credibility to Edwards's release, even with it being partisan internal numbers, because they appear to mirror Flores's partisan internal numbers.
If Chet were able to pull out a victory next month in the most Republican district held by a Democrat in the U.S. House- especially this cycle- it would be the upset of the year and a testament to the relationship he has built with voters in his district (as well as his field operation).
Democrat Chet Edwards has a commanding cash-on-hand lead against Republican liar Bill Flores in TX-17. Flores has been caught in a lie -- not once, but twice -- and has defended BP. I expect Edwards, as he always has, to maintain a strong advantage in the race.
Republican Speaker Joe Straus has given $260,000 to House Republicans, and reports approximately $3,000,000 cash-on-hand. Makes you wonder why Michael Quinn Sullivan and the Republican tools at Empower Texans are so opposed to Joe Straus, until you remember the fact that their willful ignorance makes them one of the least respected groups in Texas.
Texas Congressman Chet Edwards played a key role in helping keep the Big 12 together. An Associated Press story from last week - "Pac-10 commissioner has no animosity toward Texas" - the Pac 10 Commissioner credited strong political pressure, which Congressman Edwards was out in front of early, to a key reason as to why the Big 12 didn't split up:
[Pac 10 Commissioner Larry] Scott said he believes the expansion to 16 teams with Texas leading the way failed for three reasons.
"Number One, I think there was a tsunami of Texas political pressure from Texas A&M and Baylor," he said.
“What we saw clearly during the past two weeks was the impact of swift and strong leadership on the part of our elected officials when the focus of the discussion becomes what is best for our community,” Starr told the Tribune-Herald on Thursday.
Congressman Edwards, for his part, played a strong role. At the request of Baylor leaders, Edwards called publicly for Lieutenant Governor David Dewhurst and Speaker of the House Joe Straus to hold hearings on the Big 12. The political pressure, quite clearly, worked well. Edwards released the following statement in a press release (read the full release below):
"I am proud to have worked with Baylor and Waco leaders to stop the breakup of the Big 12, and for Bill Flores to criticize me for that effort shows he is badly out of touch with our district. It is disappointing to think that someone who wants to represent Baylor and the Waco area would have abandoned us on a critical issue that will affect Baylor and our community's economy for decades to come."
Edwards' opponent, Bill Flores, thought nobody should get involved. He told KBTX that:
"The last thing you want is a candidate for federal office or an existing federal office holder getting involved in college athletics. That's not in the constitution, just to be quite frank."
Jeez, Bill -- is there anything you want to do, other than apologize to BP?
First Texas Governor Rick Perry pontificated on whether or not it was an "act of God." Then Texas Attorney General Greg Abbott rushed to BP's defense. Now Republican Bill Flores, a former oil executive recruited out of Houston to run in the TX-17 race, is hurrying to paint BP as the victim in the ongoing coverage of the oil disaster in the Gulf of Mexico.
“I don’t think it’s helpful at this point to be having a bunch of Congressional hearings and trying to make victims out of the companies involved,” he said.
Congressman Chet Edwards was quick to respond:
"In light of the worst environmental disaster in our nation's history, which took 11 lives, coated our beaches in oil and will ultimately cost thousands of people their jobs, it is shameful that Mr. Flores is worried about protecting BP from being seen as a victim. As a recently retired Houston offshore oil executive, Mr. Flores might not know who the victims of this tragedy are, but the American people certainly do. Mr. Flores might spend his time worrying about BP being victimized, but I am a lot more interested in helping the true, hard-working, victims along our Gulf Coast."
"I don't know if Mr. Flores is completely out of touch, or is just more interested in siding with his offshore oil friends rather than the everyday hard-working citizens and communities devastated by the BP disaster, but either way, it's sad that he doesn't know the difference between the perpetrator and victims of an economic and environmental disaster."
Bill Flores defending BP? Good luck explaining that one for the next five months, Bill...
The Dallas Morning News reports that Republican candidate Bill Flores, running against Democrat Chet Edwards in Texas-17, is backtracking on his suggestion that the federal government should not be guaranteeing loans for the construction and expansion of nuclear power plants. From their article, "GOP House candidate Bill Flores backtracks on loans for nuclear power plants":
Nuclear power is a key issue in Edwards' conservative-leaning Central Texas district, home to Comanche Peak nuclear power plant. The plant is being considered for expansion, and most utilities say loan guarantees are essential for building new plants because of the high costs of financing the projects.
The Flores campaign initially called Edwards' claims dishonest and denied ever speaking against the loan guarantees. But after the Edwards' staff released the audio and specifics of Flores' comments at a Waco tea party event in February, Flores aides said he had changed his mind since then.
Edwards' spokeswoman Megan Jacobs said, "Mr. Flores cannot hide from his real position, no matter how hard he tries."
Flores made his original statements -- about how the federal government shouldn't be in the business of guaranteeing federal loans -- back in February. As the DMN article mentions, the Chet Edwards campaign has the audio, and released it on YouTube.
After Edwards released the audio, Flores switched sides. Flores' campaign manager, the utterly unintelligent Matt MacKowiak, argued the following in the DMN story:
Mackowiak said that after the Waco event, Flores spoke to several power companies that own nuclear facilities and they stressed the need for the loan guarantees
You know why Flores didn't say the right thing the first time? Because Bill Flores an NRCC-recruit who doesn't know a thing about the district.
Great to see the Chet Edwards campaign continue to take it to Flores like this. This is why Republicans can never and will never defeat Edwards -- he's too good at what he does, and they're too terrible.
(A terrific piece from Left of College Station, one of the best political blogs in Texas. - promoted by Phillip Martin)
All politics is local. That is, unless you are a Republican campaigning against an incumbent Democrat. Then all politics becomes national. At least that what Republican Bill Flores is hoping, as he campaigns against Democratic Congressman Chet Edwards. While Edwards campaign strategy is centered around painting Flores as an outsider to the district who was picked by Washington, D.C. insiders (and who accumulated his personal wealth in the oil business), Flores is going to attempt to connect Edwards to President Obama and the Democrats in Congress. The problem is that one strategy has worked before, and one strategy never has.
The Rothenberg Political Report reported on the results of a Republican poll which shows Flores leading Edwards by twelve points, 51% to 43%. Surveying 400 "likely voters" OnMessage Inc, a Republican firm, conducted the poll from May 2nd through May 3rd. Although, it appears that Edwards has a strong approval rating of 53% and only a 38% unfavorable rating. While 53% of those polled do not have any opinion of Flores at all, who has 37% favorable rating and 10% unfavorable rating.
The pollster, Wes Anderson, is framing the election as a referendum on President Obama and the Congressional Democrats:
"There are a whole bunch of Republican voters who like Congressman Edwards. They say that they voted for him in the past, but they aren't going to do it this time. This election isn't about Chet Edwards."
But Edwards responded to the poll by stating that Republican challengers and the RNC have release several polls over the years to predict defeat, and that this election will not be about President Obama and Congressional Democrats:
"I have my toughest time against a generic Republican who isn't well-known. By the end of this race, Bill Flores will not be a generic Republican. I intend to demonstrate by the end of this race that my values reflect this district better than his do."
This morning, Chet Edwards' campaign manager Alex Youn released a statement from the Congressman about his upcoming general election and a brief statement about his opponent Bill Flores.
"This race will focus on two key facts. First, I am a champion for our veterans and military families and have worked effectively on a bipartisan basis for jobs and economic development for our district.
Second, Mr. Flores has been recruited by Washington, D.C. insiders to try to buy our district's congressional seat with millions of dollars he has made as a Houston oil executive, even though he has never once voted in a general election in our district-not even once."
Campaigns, take note on this e-mail. It is four paragraphs long. It includes an introduction paragraph, a two paragraph statement, and an ask. If you are running a state house race of larger, you should sign up to get the campaign updates.
It also includes a contribution and a volunteer button as well as a video from the Congressman.
The message may sound similar.
This is incredibly smart. While Flores is coming off a nasty and brutal primary, Edwards is already moving forward with his campaign. Flores' campaign is being run by Republican consultant and Kay Bailey Hutchison apologist Matt Mackowiak who has shown time and time again he is both willing and ready to go negative at any time.
Regardless, of how Republican the district is, the Edwards campaign seems ready for re-election and the first e-mail out is highly encouraging.
