Here is the current state of the TX primary following this weekend's convention/caucus results, projecting ahead.
As we have stated before, the final caucus results won't be until the state convention on June 6, so these are not final numbers, but rather the current state of the race, should it end today. Obviously the Caucus numbers can and will change in the coming months -- but it's also fair to report where we are now.
Here is the source for our figures, all of which have a permanent home in the box in the top-right hand corner of our page, along with the county-by-county results we were using all weekend:
My only comment about these results is to link back to what I wrote on February 13, about how to win the Texas primary:
Senator Obama could come close to Senator Clinton in the "primary" portion and dominate the "caucus" portion --- the only catch is that those 67 votes that come from the "caucus" system won't be known until June at the Texas Democratic Party Convention.
If the expectations are that Senator Clinton will win and perhaps even dominate in Texas, then even Senator Obama finishing close on Election Day -- with an understanding that he will do well in the future caucuses -- could be enough to count as a win for Senator Obama.
2:30pm, 4/13 update by Phillip - I updated the caucus-chosen results. The * indicates the 0.3% of delegates that are uncommited going into the state convention.
2:30pm Updated by Phillip - And with the counties I just added, a 37-30 split is again where we're at. Read our results to learn more.
We are pleased to announce that we at Burnt Orange Report will be reporting the results of this weekend’s county and senate district conventions. We will be partnering with the campaigns of both Senator Hillary Clinton and Senator Barack Obama – with the support of the Texas Democratic Party and countless county and local party leaders – to provide you the most accurate, up-to-date vote totals of this weekend’s extraordinary process.
This is an extraordinary opportunity for our community to demonstrate the virtue and value of a people-powered movement.
Here’s how it will work:
On Saturday, March 29, thousands upon thousands of Texas Democrats will attend their county conventions across the state. As those conventions wrap-up their delegate selection process, individuals from the convention will submit the delegate-totals through a number of methods (read below). We are anticipating representatives from each campaign, as well as County Chairs, to submit totals.
We have built a delegate tracking database. We will keep a running tally of each county convention with the number of Clinton and Obama delegates elected to the state convention in June. Based upon the county results, we will project the estimated number of national delegates earned by each campaign.
As soon as we can verify information, we will report the results. All we ask is your patience – many larger conventions are expected to run late into Saturday evening. Even if it takes until Sunday or Monday, our top priority is that any results reported are accurate.
How to Submit the Results of Your County Convention
There are three ways you can submit the results of your county convention:
Phone – If you do not have internet access, or would rather talk to a real human being, Burnt Orange Report writers David Mauro and Phillip Martin have agreed to receive call-in results. If you do choose to call-in the results, please leave a brief phone message stating who you are, your role at the convention (County Chair, Secretary, Obama/Clinton supporter, etc.) and the total number of delegates for each candidate.
Please help us spread the work about our efforts this weekend, and enjoy the convention process. Support your candidate, learn about the process, and remember that – above all else – it’s a proud day to be a Democrat!
The Texas, Ohio, Rhode Island and Vermont primaries are this coming Tuesday (in about 3 days). In the primary, so far the delegate count is almost tied and the polls going in to these primaries are almost tied -- with Hillary maintaining a lead in Ohio. Nobody knows at this point what the outcome will be, and don't let anyone tell you they know. This race is not over. There are a lot of Democrats waiting to cast their vote for a nominee and this could go on for a while.
Whatever the outcome this is a great time in our country's history! The Republicans offered a lineup from an earlier, stale era, while we Democrats have offered progress and change for a future era of peace and prosperity. Whichever Democratic candidate wins the nomination we offer the country a far better choice than the Republicans. The country will be in good hands.
(Bumped. Did you know that more people have voted early in Texas now than there are citizens in the entire state of Vermont which votes the same day next Tuesday? - promoted by Karl-Thomas Musselman)
This is a daily feature through the early vote period of the TX primary.
The following link takes you to spreadsheets based on the numbers from the Secretary of State's website that shows the early vote totals for the 14 counties with the highest numbers of registered voters:
Follow those two links or look at the chart below. As a point of clarification, the comparison to 2004 is looking at early vote totals 8 days in to the early vote in 2004. Its the best comparison we can make:
TX Dem Primary Early Vote Through 8 Days (2/19 - 2/26)
County
Registered Voters
Total In-Person And Mail Voters '08
Total % Early Voting '08
Total In- Person And Mail Voters '04
Total % Early Voting '04
Increase 2008 over 2004
Harris
1,804,641
98,980
5.48%
10,630
0.58%
88,350
Dallas
1,114,002
70,185
6.30%
6,591
0.58%
63,594
Tarrant
890,412
49,212
5.53%
5,748
0.67%
43,464
Bexar
867,084
59,156
6.82%
9,193
1.07%
49,963
Travis
541,315
53,278
9.84%
10,776
2.02%
42,502
Collin
378,730
21,033
5.55%
1,561
0.47%
19,472
El Paso
368,579
32,363
8.78%
10,007
2.84%
22,356
Denton
329,099
15,793
4.80%
1,147
0.40%
14,646
Hidalgo
287,988
33,474
11.62%
18,951
7.37%
14,523
FortBend
267,583
19,533
7.30%
1,003
0.44%
18,530
Montgomery
224,321
7,672
3.42%
679
0.34%
6,993
Williamson
206,334
12,337
5.98%
1,356
0.75%
10,981
Nueces
189,534
13,665
7.21%
5,466
2.86%
8,199
Galveston
180,288
11,149
6.18%
1,662
0.95%
9,487
Total
7,815,906
497,830
6.55%
84,770
1.88%
413,060
Here are the take-aways from today's chart:
497,830 Democrats have already voted through Tuesday in these top 14 counties-- 413,060 more voters than at this time in 2004. As Kos said yesterday, "holy frackin' sh**."
Turnout remains strong -- 60,000 additional voters voted Monday, and 80,000 additional voters voted Tuesday. In other words, these numbers aren't slowing down -- and we very well could see the early vote numbers from '08 break the total vote (early and election day vote) from 2004 -- which was around 800,000.
Harris County (today) has most likely exceeded 100,000 voters. I've been told that of the first 52,000 voters, only 1,600 -- around 2-3% -- were "hard Republicans." So the idea that a massive amount of Republicans are crossing over hasn't panned out yet.
The stars at night, are big and bright -- deep in the heart of Texas!
