After a break in reporting, the MSM has noticed global warming, again. It also appears that the weather-related problems around the globe (and in NYC, in particular) have made the coverage much less of the "on the one hand vs. on the other hand" which, in the past, has given too much credibility to the deniers. I had my first one-on-one briefing about global warming from NASA's Dr. Jim Hansen in 1987.
After the 2006 election, I received many requests to post the ways I had run my campaign for TX-10, because I had received nearly 42% of the vote in this Tom Delay-gerrymandered 65% Republican District while spending only $65,000. I stated at the time that the Campaign had an impact much greater than the money spent because there was so much volunteer support. But, we did do a lot of things that maximized candidate-to-voter contact. This effort cost very little and some (me in particular) would say that it has a disporportionate impact on voters. I did not take the suggestions to post my methods because the opposition reads these things, as well. I determined to give this help directly to future TX-10 candidates, if they were interested. Larry Joe Doherty wasn't interested.
Jack McDonald recently spent a little time at my house and I gave him some of my thoughts. I told him that TX-10 was possible to win, but it would require a candidate to do all the things I was able to do, PLUS the things a candidate with money could do. It was hard to tell what Larry Joe did from my place in Houston, because he was largely invisible, here. I knew I should have spent much more time in Harris County during the campaign, but I couldn't because I was raising most of the money I did raise in Travis. Jack understands that he must concentrate his efforts in Harris for the General election. I think that my "success" in TX-10 in 2006 has made it possible for both Larry Joe and Jack to do so well in fund raising. In 2006, TX-10 was a "no hope" District. That's not true, now, and it makes donors much more willing. Both Larry Joe and Jack have been able to raise money outside the District. I am looking forward to working closely with Jack to help him win in 2010.
The topic of the day is KBH's feint at resignation. I think this has a very interesting possibility for TX-10, if it happens before filing in Jan. Presume a KBH resignation. Perry's appointment opens up the Lt. Gov. slot. Our Attorney General files for Lt. Gov. McCaul decides to file for Attorney General. It's a good move for McCaul. He has a good chance of winning. It's a much better job. He gets to live at home. If this happens, there will be a big expensive Repub battle for the nomination. It'll probably go to someone from Harris who is very, very conservative. That candidate will not get as many votes in Travis as McCaul. In this case, what I call the "Austin Kool-aid" might actually work. Larry Joe fell victim to the story that a Dem could do well enough in Travis that the Repub vote in Harris could be offset. I never believed this, and Jack says he doesn't either. But if an ultraconservative from Harris is the Repub nominee, it might be true. In any event, it will reduce the needed Dem vote in Harris to a more easily achievable number in an off-year.
(Dan Grant has already raised 2/3 of what Ted Ankrum did in 2006 and Ankrum received 45% of the vote. Things look good in the TX-10. - promoted by Matt Glazer)
SwingStateProject has just posted a list of the top 20 congressional candidate fundraisers on ActBlue so far this cycle and our own Dan Grant is at #8.
It's interesting to note that, outside the top four candidates (who are all vying for safe Democratic open seats), some of the top names on Actblue are contesting tough districts like Bob Lord's campaign against Rep. John Shadegg in Arizona's 3rd (R+5.9), and Dan Grant against Mike McCaul in Texas' 10th (R+13). It will be interesting to see how many aggressive challenges can be raised in Republican-leaning districts like these over the next year and a half. My guess is that we'll see quite a few. There's nothing quite like a massive wave election to inspire recruitment.
Dan's traveling to Washington DC today to meet with the powers that be how about a little show of support from the home team to send him off right?
Texas Republican Mike McCaul was a beneficiary of a mid-decade redistricting plan — spearheaded by Tom DeLay, the Texan who then was House majority leader — that left the GOP with six more House seats after the 2004 election than they had after 2002.
The 10th Congressional District, where McCaul ran, seemed so Republican (its voters would give President Bush 61 percent in 2004), that McCaul won that year without Democratic opposition, pulling down 79 percent to defeat a Libertarian and a write-in candidate.
But McCaul did draw a Democratic foe in 2006, and it made a difference. His challenger, former NASA employee Ted Ankrum, was not well-known in the 10th — which spans 150 miles from eastern Austin to western suburbs of Houston — and spent less than $65,000 to the incumbent’s $1.1 million. Yet the outcome was a fairly modest 55 percent to 40 percent victory for McCaul.
