A few days ago, Charles Kuffner wrote about Senate District 17 saying simply, "the line up is set".
In the story he mentioned how Republican's had found another faux Democrat to try and peel off just enough of votes from Chris Bell. Her name is Stephanie E. Simmons. And after filing, the Houston Chronicle was unable to even talk to her about her candidacy.
Kuffner goes on to admit he might be jumping to some conclusions but goes through the facts.
But I do know, from multiple sources, that the Republicans were looking for someone they could recruit to run as a Democrat. I do know that the Democrats as a whole are excited about and united behind the Bell candidacy, unlike the Republicans and their deep split over Austen Furse and Joan Huffman. And I do know that anyone who enters a race like this at the last minute with no buzz, no obvious means of support, and no contact with the media, is not someone who's in it to win it. So while I may be jumping to a conclusion, it's not exactly a flying leap.
However, after some research, Stephanie Simmons probably does not meet the residency requirements for this special election. The Bell campaign has filed a lawsuit against the Texas Secretary of State and Mrs. Simmons and will seek emergency, injunctive relief. In English, the Bell campaign has public documents that say Simmons doesn't fulfill requirements to be on the ballot, and therefore, she should be removed.
Simmons filed last minute, unlike Bell, so it's good to see a quick, decisive action by the campaign. Clearly, Congressman Bell has no choice but to act now in filing suit against the Secretary of State before voters are duped by this cynical Republican ploy.
Update: I finally have the full 17 page complaint. Here it is, warning it is a pdf.
When you are away on a business trip, all you want is good news from back home. Thank you Chris Bell.
According to a new poll done by Cooper & Secrest, SD-17 looks great for Congressman Chris Bell.
A poll done August 14 and between 16-18 of 404 likely general election voters in Texas' 17th Senate District shows Bell with huge numbers.
In the 4-way trial heat for Senate, Bell dominates: 42% Bell, 8% Huffman, 5% Furse, 4% Harpold, and 41% undecided.
Chris Bell is the best known and best liked of any of the candidates in the field (75% i.d. 44% positive, 26% negative).
In this district where fully 61% give President Bush negative job performance ratings, as do 67% in regards to the state legislature as a whole, Chris Bell is a clear voice for change.
Despite the fact that the 17th District is plurality Republican (50% Republican, 33% Democratic), fully 71% REJECT the notion, "It is very unlikely I would ever support a Democrat for State Senator."
And fully 61% concur, "The Republicans in Austin simply haven't been effective enough; Texas really needs new leadership to solve challenges like the crisis in school funding and ethics in state government."
The poll had a 4.9% margin of error, but all of these numbers are too overwhelming for that to matter. These numbers show that people know and like Chris Bell, and people don't know and don't like any of his opponents. This further proves the Republican brand is in bad shape in Texas. With these factors combined, Chris Bell looks very very good in this special election.
Chris Bell's appeal to Senate District 17 was affirmed Tuesday when Republican Mayor, Bob Kelly, endorsed Congressman Bell.
My name is Bob Kelly, and I am the Mayor of West University. When my state senator, Kyle Janek, retired recently, I knew that choosing the next state senator would have a huge impact on my town and the entire area. That's why I am pleased to tell you that I have decided to endorse Chris Bell and am writing today to ask you to help me elect him to the state senate.
Chris is a Democrat. However, party affiliation does not matter. I have watched Chris' career over the years and know that we can trust him to do the right thing. I watched him stand up to insider deals at City Hall and pass landmark ethics reforms. And in Congress, I saw how he demonstrated unusual leadership for a freshman lawmaker by establishing the Port Security Caucus. With his experience and willingness to fight for reform no matter the odds, Chris is the kind of leader who will be able to step right into the Texas Senate and get things done.
Texas needs Chris in the senate to help our public schools, improve access to health care, promote stem cell research and fight for ethics reforms. I don't care if you're a Democrat or a Republican. The priorities that Chris has are the priorities that we all share around here. Chris' campaign is important to me, but what he wants to do in office is important to everyone in Texas.
Kind regards,
Mayor Bob Kelly
Kelly's endorsement is the biggest blow to Janek's hand picked successor, Austien Furse Furse lives close to Kelly and still Kelly picked Bell. Furse is also under siege as Republican leadership seems to be rallying around Joan Huffman. Regardless, Bell continues to win over local Republican Elected and community activist. Given the shortened time table, this will be a tight race, but Bell is proving he can win.
Now that I can write again, I would love to kick it off with a special message from Congressman Chris Bell. He sent KT and me a message thanking our community for our support.
The Congressman has said it is ok for publication, and so it is my honor to let you all know how appreciative he truly is.
I can't thank you all enough for what you did yesterday. As a result of the "strike" and an overall outpouring of support, our online fundraising campaign is off to an incredible start. We have already surpassed our initial goal and have the building blocks in place to make online giving a major part of our fundraising strategy.
We are going to win this race because of people like you who understand the importance of taking back a seat in the Texas Senate and who are willing to do a little bit extra and out of the ordinary to make it happen. And while I'm sure it really was just a clever way to respond to Matt's constant pleas for a day off, I was certainly very pleased to be the beneficiary.
Seriously, you all are fantastic and I'm extremely grateful to have you on my side. Thank you very much!
Chris Bell
Thank you Chris! We look forward to seeing you in Austin working for the people of SD-17 this January and beyond.
It's not too late to support Chris's campaign. Make a donation today, and help us Turn Texas Blue!
Myself and the rest of the BOR staff was totally ready to dig in for an extended strike if our readers couldn't come up with $1,000 for Chris Bell. You proved that you want us writing and that you want Chris Bell in the Texas Senate. In less than 12 hours, 14 donors contributed $1,050 to our strike fund which is 10% of Bell's original $10,000 online goal. Y'all rock.
Of course, that means that we never had to air this pathetic YouTube video of our Editor, Matt Glazer asking you to step up to the plate. So you'll get to watch it guilt free with a special note from me at the end.
All writers' editorial privileges have been restored and we'll be back to writing ASAP. That is of course, unless there is another work stoppage... But for now, congratulations and thanks.
This blog is going on strike until we as a community raise $1,000 as part of Chris Bell's $10,000 online fundraising launch for his state senate campaign for the special election in District 17. See below and donate to the strike fund to end it!
Longtime readers may remember that back in the old days (i.e. 2005/2006) I was not the biggest fan in the blogosphere of a man who ran for Governor named Chris Bell. Back then (thankfully), I was a minority voice in the Texas Blogosphere.
As you may know, that man named Chris Bell has done a lot of good in his time and is now our standard bearer in the newest competitive district in Texas- State Senate District 17, which Republican Senator Kyle Janek resigned from this summer.
And Chris Bell is going to win with our help- no joke.
Matt did a great job putting this race into context back in June as to why it's important to us up and down the ballot.
Senate District 17 now looks like one of the most interesting races in the state because of its effect on surrounding races. A strong candidate in SD-17 will help Hubert Vo who has a large overlap. It could reasonably effect Larry Joe Doherty in CD-10 and Mike Skelley in CD-7 by mobilizing Democrats in conservative parts of their districts (the northern part of SD-17 overlaps with both CD-10 and CD-7 and yesterdays poll indicates CD-10 is receptive to LJD). Not to mention having another Houston race will absolutely help native son Rick Noriega in his bid to defeat Big John Cornyn.
It will help the Houston Democratic Coordinated Campaign and candidates like Sherri Matula, Joel Redman, and Kristi Thibaut run for the Texas House. It will help Diane Trautman take on uber scary Republican Tax Assessor Collector Paul Bettencourt. Not to mention the judicial candidates and other down ballot races that will get a bump by having an aggressive campaign in SD-17.
Chris Bell, who is not even a declared candidate yet, is leading Republican Austin Furse by nearly 14 percentage points. The Opinion Analysts poll shows Bell at 40% and Furse at 26.5%.
Even more remarkable, the poll shows Bell's name ID at 74.3 percent. Not only is that way higher than incumbent state Sen. Kyle Janek's name ID (which sits at 47.7 percent) but it also tops (though not significantly) the name ID of John Cornyn who comes in at 73.2 percent.
I know our readers don't need any convincing about Chris Bell (which sadly, I did over the years). So all of this is to say that I'm on board 110% with this special election and intend to give it some special attention as well.
That's why today, I'm asking you, my friends, and the entire Burnt Orange Report community, to step up to the plate and join with Chris Bell in launching his campaign.
Senate District 17 was made for Chris Bell. His name idea is higher than any other elected official in the district. His networks in Texas and nation wide give him the support and infrastructure he needs to run and win a 100 day campaign. He is charismatic and already knows the issues.
While we were at Netroots Nation, Chris Bell made an official entry into SD-17.
Visit Chris's website and spread the word... we are ready to turn Texas blue!
The safest chamber in the Texas legislature is supposed to be the Texas Senate. It was drawn to give Republicans nearly two thirds of the 31 seats. While we have won over and over again in state House races, the Senate remained static. Even though we turned Dallas blue, the Senate remained static. Those seats were drawn to protect incumbents (especially Republicans), but 2008 seems different.
The lines are the same, but now it is possible for Democrats to make it a 17 to 14 Democratic minority for the first time in years.
Wendy Davis is challenging Kim Brimer, Joe Jaworski is taking on "Toxic" Mike Jackson, and now an unnamed Democrat will campaign against three Republicans in Senate District 17.
Senate District 17 now looks like one of the most interesting races in the state because of its effect on surrounding races. A strong candidate in SD-17 will help Hubert Vo who has a large overlap. It could reasonably effect Larry Joe Doherty in CD-10 and Mike Skelley in CD-7 by mobilizing Democrats in conservative parts of their districts (the northern part of SD-17 overlaps with both CD-10 and CD-7 and yesterdays poll indicates CD-10 is receptive to LJD). Not to mention having another Houston race will absolutely help native son Rick Noriega in his bid to defeat Big John Cornyn.
It will help the Houston Democratic Coordinated Campaign and candidates like Sherri Matula, Joel Redman, and Kristi Thibaut run for the Texas House. It will help Diane Trautman take on uber scary Republican Tax Assessor Collector Paul Bettencourt. Not to mention the judicial candidates and other down ballot races that will get a bump by having an aggressive campaign in SD-17.
When Rick Perry called the special election to fill Sen. Kyle Janek's recently vacated seat for November 4, he may have helped Democrats more than he meant to. Maybe that is why he was only able to get 39% in 2006.
Before we go into the Democratic side of things, lets talk Republicans. According to Kuff, the R's now have three declared candidates- Joan Huffman, a former felony court judge, Houston lawyer Grant Harpold and Houston businessman Austen Furse. None of these three have any real name ID and it doesn't appear they have a strong fundraising network or activist base. None currently hold a political office and having a judge run against a lawyer might require Harpold to go negative against Huffman in order to show a contrast between the two.
As for the Democrats, although he isn't in yet, the name that keeps popping up is former Congressman Chris Bell. Since the election is November 4, Rep. Scott Hochberg would be required by law to vacate his state house seat and Texas could ill afford to lose Hochberg in the House. He is a leader and is especially good at education policy.
Good news is, Bell seems to be a solid candidate and one that can win Senate District 17. Polls indicate he has huge name ID (74% of those polled knew Chris Bell) and the numbers get better in a head to head poll.
Bell leads Furse, 40 percent to 26.5 percent, in a head to head question. Part of Bell's favorable results stem from Republicans unhappy with Republican elected officials, Stanford writes. While 53.2 percent disapprove of President Bush's job performance, an even higher percentage, 60.3 percent, disapprove of Gov. Perry's job performance. Meanwhile, 63 percent said the country is on the wrong track.
Stanford goes on to write that the poll results indicate up to 20 percent of the Republican base could be persuaded to vote for Bell. Furthermore, Stanford writes that Bell's history of standing up to Tom DeLay makes most Democrats and close to a majority of independents more inclined to vote for Bell.
Jeff Smith of Opinion Analysts (the firm conducting the poll) also noted high favorable ratings for Bell. He wrote that Bell's 30 percent favorable rating surpasses the 20 percent for Janek. "Bell's high visibility would give him a big advantage over the field at the outset and a stable base on which to build for the election," Smith wrote. "The combination of Bell's visibility and the voters' disenchantment with the Republican state legislature propel Bell to comfortable margins in both uninformed and informed trial heats with candidates clearly identified by party affiliation. Should he enter the race, Chris Bell would be the immediate frontrunner in a very winnable contest."
Check out the Stanford summary here.
Check out the Smith summary here.
(emphasis added)
Looking at past election results proves this point. In 2006, Janek ran against a Libertarian and won 77.82% to 22.17%. That's right Libertarian Phil Kurtz received almost a quarter of the total vote. In 2002, Janek got 61.42% against Democrat Ronnie Ellen Harrison who earned 38.57%. This is the election that swept Republicans into office across the country (this was the same year Nick Lampson lost his bid for re-election) and Janek only got 61.42% of the vote event though Harrison spent under $30,000.
Janek's retirement and Perry's politically motivated move to call the special election on November 4 means Democrats stand a good chance to turn Harris County blue and cut the margins in the Senate. Chris Bell's popularity and infusion of money in SD-17 would help every Democrat in the area and the votes that money would drive out would inevitably help Democrats up and down the ballot. We need Chris Bell to run for this seat and help us turn Texas blue.
The last day to file for the special election is August 29. In the next few weeks we will begin researching the Republicans who have filed and let you know more as this race unfolds.
While the "Run Chris! Run" Diaries just keep popping up (here and here and apologies to others that I might have missed), let me add another one with some optimistic numbers.
The numbers below the fold show the congressional districts within SD-17. In all 6 races in 2004, Republicans contested the seats, so the Republican values in the table are the 2004 results. However, Democrats did not contest CD-14 and for practical purposes CD-10. Richard Morrison was also under-funded in CD-22. Hence, to estimate how the Democrats might have done in 2004 had they been highly-funded (estimation denoted by *), I extrapolated the values from the Democratic 2006 percentages based upon the Republican totals.
