Analysis: Hutchison Says She Will Resign in October or November

by: David Mauro

Wed Jul 29, 2009 at 00:35 PM CDT

While appearing on a Dallas talk radio show this morning, U.S. Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison told host Mark Davis that she expected to resign her seat in the Senate in October or November.

Rick vs Kay has the transcript:

Davis: So you’ll be coming out at some point. When do you think its decision time for you? When would you like when might we know?

Hutchison: I’m going to announce in August. Formal announcement I am in. Then the actual leaving of the Senate will be sometime – October/November – that-- in that time frame.

While it first should be said that Hutchison has said plenty of things over the years and many skeptics will not be convinced until she actually resigns, this is the closest Hutchison herself has come to setting a real timetable for an exit from the Senate.

Once Hutchison resigns, the non-existent U.S. Senate race we have been reporting about for months will suddenly have an election date and a new incumbent, as Gov. Rick Perry will be able appoint someone to fill the term between the resignation and the special election.

Who would Perry pick? Many Republicans aeem to be waiting to see who Perry picks before they decide to back a candidate. If Perry picks someone like Lt. Gov. David Dewhurst, who would be able to self-finance his campaign with millions of dollars, it is hard to imagine Republican candidates who have so far been fundraising failures, like Railroad Commissioners Michael Williams and Elizabeth Ames Jones, being very competitive.

The campaign spokesman for former Secretary of State Roger Williams, who was a Perry apointee, recently speculated that Williams' relatively strong fundraising quarter could put him in a good position to receive the appointment. Clearly, Perry will be looking to back a winning horse and given his options, he may decide Dewhurst, for all the Lieutenant Governor's flaws, is his best bet.

Gardner Selby wrote last week that Perry was considering calling a special election much earlier than many had assumed, potentially calling for an election before the end of the year.

Under the law, if the governor determines that an emergency warrants holding a special election before the uniform election date, then it can be on a nonuniform date as long as the governor identifies the nature of the emergency.

Translation: The election can happen any day the governor pleases.

And should Hutchison step down, Perry would consider setting an election shortly. Perry spokeswoman Allison Castle told me, "If a vacancy were to occur, the governor would be inclined to call an election soon to ensure Texans are fully represented" in Washington.

While it is fun (and exhausting) to speculate about the many scenarios that could play out following Hutchison's resignation, we have learned over the years that with Hutchison there is often a disconnect between words and actions.

TX-Sen: Democrats Significantly Outraise Republicans

by: David Mauro

Wed Apr 15, 2009 at 06:21 PM CDT

The two Democratic candidates for the U.S. Senate, former comptroller John Sharp and Houston Mayor Bill White, hold significant advantages in cash on hand over their Republican opponents after the first fundraising quarter.

As we previously reported, Bill White raised $1,876,163 this quarter and began April with $2,131,638 on hand. White received contributions from 1,400 Texans. No personal loans were included in his totals this quarter.

John Sharp reported receiving $2,516,833 in loans and contributions this quarter to finish with $2,432,675 on hand. The number, in itself, is impressive but as Gardner Selby points out, we should reserve judgement until we learn how much of that money was from personal loans. Today, when asked, the Sharp campaign declined to disclose that information.

Both Democrats hold big advantages over the Republican candidates. 

Former Texas Secretary of State Roger Williams leads the Republican contenders with $388,628 on hand, but that number is less impressive when the $200,000 in personal loans are taken into account. State Sen. Florence Shapiro had just over $310,000 on hand, while Railroad Commissioners Elizabeth Ames Jones and Michael Williams have $164,663 and $113,957 on hand, respectively.

The Democratic money advantage, however, may not last. Well financed candidates such as Lt. Gov. David Dewhurst, who would pour his personal wealth into a campaign, and Attorney General Greg Abbott are also said to be considering the race.

When the amount of Sharp's personal loans are known, we will have a better idea of how the money race is shaping up on the Democratic side.

TX-Sen: Poll Gives Early Snapshot in Head to Head Matchup

by: Matt Glazer

Wed Feb 25, 2009 at 11:02 AM CST

Today, Public Policy Polling released polling data for both potential primaries if KBH were to win or vacate her seat.

We tested Lieutenant Governor David Dewhurst, Attorney General Greg Abbott, and state Senator Florence Shapiro on the Republican side against Houston Mayor Bill White and former Comptroller John Sharp on the Democratic side.

The first major problem I see with this is that it ignores the slew of announces or explicitly interested Republicans looking to run in Texas.  That list includes former Secretary of State Roger Williams, Railroad Commissioner Elizabeth Ames Jones, and Railroad Commissioner Michael Williams to name a few.

This list includes three higher profile, statewide Republicans.  It is curious that there is no data on these three declared candidates.

That being said, nobody is close to crossing the 50% plus 1 mark.  

Abbott, who has not announced plans to seek the seat, appears to be the strongest initial candidate. 43% of voters in the state have a favorable opinion of him compared to only 25% that view him negatively. He leads Sharp 44-36 and White 42-36 in possible contests.

What is interesting here is that White and Sharp seems to only be polling at the natural or suppressed Democratic base.  However Abbott v. White pushes Abbott down 2 points.

Dewhurst is almost as strong, with a 43/30 favorability breakdown. He leads Sharp and White by slightly more narrow margins than Abbott, 42-36 over the former and 42-37 over the latter.

Again, this poll only seems to show Democrats win Democrats and Republicans win the Republicans.  That means the independent voters and soft voters either don't know or don't care.

It seems inevitable that one of those heavyweights will get into the race if there is indeed a vacancy, but we also tested Shapiro to see how competitive the contest would be if the GOP ended up nominating one of the less well known candidates who have already made their intentions to seek the seat known. Shapiro leads White 37-36 but trails Sharp 37-34, an indication the race could pretty much be a tossup if a more well known Republican doesn't run.

This makes sense.  Dewhurst and Abbott have been on statewide ballots multiple times, Florence Shapiro has not. Her base of support seems to be close to Rick Perry's 2006 election numbers.  It also indicates if a Democratic candidate can get the resources need to run an aggressive statewide campaign, this could become a fun race to watch.

The PPP poll seems to prove this point.

...it's worth noting that Sharp and White have a lot more room to grow in terms of name recognition. 43% of the electorate has no opinion of White and 41% has none of Sharp, figures much higher than the 27% for Dewhurst and 32% for Abbott.

All this being said, there is still no race.  This is all a fun game brought to you by speculation and hypotheticals. Because this poll doesn't go through the whole field of Republicans, it leaves us with knowing what many inside political circles have been guessing for a while. With no resources, Democrats are behind.  

Bill White Raises $640,000 in 15 Days for U.S. Senate Campaign

by: David Mauro

Sat Jan 31, 2009 at 08:12 PM CST

The Houston Chronicle has reported that Houston Mayor Bill White raised more than $640,000 in the final 15 days of 2008 for his campaign for the U.S. Senate.

White began the year with $737,000 on hand. That number includes a $120,287 contribution he made to his own campaign.

More than $640,000 in 15 days is a very impressive number. In 2007, Senate candidate Rick Noriega reported raising about $570,000 after close to three months of fundraising. RG Ratcliffe pointed out that in fifteen days White raised roughly one quarter of what Noriega raised during his entire campaign.

John Sharp, the only other declared Democratic candidate for the U.S. Senate, did not start raising money until this year. Like White, Sharp is expected to contribute some of his own money to his campaign.

On the Republican side of the race to replace Kay Bailey Hutchsion, former Texas Secretary of State Roger Williams began the year with $131,000 on hand, while Railroad Commissioner Elizabeth Ames Jones has $145,000 and state Sen. Florence Shapiro has $375,556.

All of this and we do not even know when the election will be.

Elizabeth Ames Jones Announces Candidacy for U.S. Senate

by: Matt Glazer

Fri Dec 12, 2008 at 00:21 PM CST

Jones, who had been saying she was open to the Senate prospect, says on her filing that she's running in 2012. That's the year Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison's seat will be open if she doesn't resign before then. Hutchison, who's looking into a 2010 run for governor, has said she won't resign any earlier than the end of next year. If she does quit early, and depending on her timing, Gov. Rick Perry would appoint an interim senator and set a special election to election someone to serve out her term.

Former Texas Secretary of State Roger Williams (Republican) and Houston Mayor Bill White (Democrat) are both expected to announce their intentions next week.

Williams has gone as far as telling Dave Montgomery at PoliTex, an announcement is imminent.

The former Texas Secretary of State told PoliTex Monday that he plans to announce an exploratory committee for the U.S. Senate seat occupied by Kay Bailey Hutchison, who is contemplating a race for governor in 2010.  Expect the announcement "within the next day or two," he said.

"We're getting ready to go," he said in a telephone interview, "so it's imminent."

The odd part of all this is Kay Bailey Hutchison's move to run for Governor, has created a very crowded field for Senator, but the Governor's race appears to be a Republican only contest right now.

Update: Apparently Roger Williams didn't want to wait until next week.  Today Williams announced he has formed an exploratory committee for the U.S. Senate race.  The Statesman has the full story here and they also highlight some other names on both sides of the aisle that may enter into the contest.

Those names include, Republicans Sen. Florence Shapiro, Lt. Gov. David Dewhurst and Michael Williams, the chairman of the Texas Railroad Commission.

Democrats who are rumored to be looking at the race include former Dallas Mayor Ron Kirk, state Sen. Leticia Van de Putte of San Antonio, state Rep. Richard Pena Raymond, and state Rep. Rafael Anchia.

Secretary of State Roger Williams Resigning

by: dcantu

Sun Jun 10, 2007 at 10:02 PM CDT

The official announcement is set for Monday morning.

Williams' communication director Scott Haywood says the secretary is leaving office to pursue other opportunities.

Read More here

Message to S.O.S Roger Williams: Preserve the Right to Vote

by: Todd Hill

Wed Feb 28, 2007 at 09:17 AM CST

The organization VoteRescue mirrors the same mission my friend in Fort Worth has.  Considering Secretary of State Roger Williams spent 3.1 million of Texas taxpayer dollars to get his picture plastered and agenda heard all throughout the state last cycle; all under the supposed mission to promote and encourage confidence in the electronic voting process, evidence mounts we have no reason to be confident at all.

I'm personally skeptical as to the real mission behind Williams public relations blitz, as I saw it more as an opportunity to get name identification up in order to run for higher office later at the expense of Joe and Sally taxpayer.  More importantly,  I'm skeptical that our vote is truly preserved when utilizing these cryptic machines and no PR blitz will change that. 

While the Secretary of State is worrying about his political future, and spending taxpayer dollars to accomplish this, VoteRescue has developed a number of questions we must hold Mr. Williams accountable for answering when he appears before the THEC hearing today.  Samples are below the fold: